Faircurve Global Market Pulse — Monday, 24 August 2026

Faircurve Research

Global Cross-Asset Daily

The bond market spent the week pushing back against Washington, and by Friday it was charging more just to lend. US debt crossed US$40 trillion and the Treasury doubled its bond buybacks to hold long-maturity yields down. That worked for one day. The ten-year yield ended the week 6 basis points higher at 4.74%, and Friday’s rise came from investors demanding a higher return above inflation, not from higher inflation expectations. Stocks shrugged. Utilities fell 2.28%, hurt most when yields rise. Money moved into the classic hedges. Gold rose 5.48% on the week and bitcoin 24.38% to US$78,325.54.

§ 01 — Equities · United States

The S&P 500 rose 0.43% to 7,674.37 and the Nasdaq rose by the same 0.43%, to 26,180.46. The Dow gained 0.98% and the Russell 2000 0.85%. Goldman Sachs added US$37.33 a share, more than any other Dow member and about 45% of the index’s net move in dollar terms. Caterpillar was next at US$12.51. The VIX fell 5.50% to 15.13. The S&P 500 still lost 1.43% on the week and now sits 1.60% below its 13 August record.

§ 02 — S&P 500 Sector Map

Friday 21 Aug · sorted best to worst (1D)

Utilities fell 2.28%, and every sector other than energy rose or held. The utility decline was broad. Utility earnings are steady and bond-like, so the sector suffers most when yields rise. Five basis points cannot carry 2.28%, though. Real estate is also bond-like and finished unchanged, and utilities have fallen 7.40% over the past month, so something else is also weighing on the sector. The largest falls on Friday were Sempra at 5.13% and American Electric Power at 3.79%. Materials led at 2.14%, with Freeport-McMoRan up 7.65% and Newmont 3.09% against a 1.67% fall at Dow Inc. Utilities are up 0.19% for 2026, the smallest gain of the nine sectors that are up at all.

Full table · sorted by YTD

§ 03 — Equities · Global

All figures reference Friday 21 August closes from FMP end-of-day data. One-week moves compare with Friday 14 August, and year-to-date with each market’s last 2025 close. Asian and European sessions closed before the US afternoon, so Friday’s US yield move is priced in Monday’s sessions, not in this table.

Seoul settled the test this letter set, closing at 6,912.95 on Friday, above the 6,813.34 level the KOSPI broke on Wednesday. Korea leads the table for 2026 at 64.04%. Hong Kong rose 1.21%, the best of the ten, and 3.55% on the week. Tokyo was the only faller on Friday, down 0.30%, and lost 3.93% on the week. Europe rose everywhere. Eight of the ten indices still fell on the week.

§ 04 — US Treasuries

3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 6M 2Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y

Friday’s rise was the same size at every maturity from one year to thirty, four or five basis points. Bills moved one basis point or less. The two-year rose 5 to 4.24% after four sessions unchanged at 4.19%, the ten-year 5 to 4.74% and the thirty-year 4 to 5.27%. A Treasury yield has two parts, the inflation the market expects and the return above it. Through Thursday the expected-inflation part rose 7 basis points at ten years while the return above inflation fell 6. On Friday expected inflation did not move, so the whole rise was investors asking for more return above inflation. Yields still rise with maturity across the first two years, so lower policy rates are not priced.

§ 05 — Credit Spreads

The weakest borrowers were repriced by more than their cost of money moved. The CCC and lower spread, the extra yield lenders charge the riskiest companies, reached 1,035 basis points on Thursday, 11 wider on the week and the widest since April 2025. The five-year Treasury yield beneath it rose 7 basis points across the same days, so the 11 on top is a judgment about the borrowers themselves. Investment grade widened 3 basis points on the week, BBB 2 and high yield 4, so the two speculative tiers moved most. These readings are Thursday’s, the latest FRED has published.

Credit spreads are FRED ICE BofA option-adjusted spreads (IG BAMLC0A0CM, BBB BAMLC0A4CBBB, HY BAMLH0A0HYM2, CCC & Lower BAMLH0A3HYC) as of the Thursday 20 August close, the latest observation FRED has published, so this table runs one session behind the rest of this letter. One-day changes reference the Wednesday 19 August close, one-week changes the Thursday 13 August close, and year-to-date the last 2025 observation. Widening (positive basis points) reads as stress. Narrowing reads as relief.

§ 06 — Digital Assets

Bitcoin rose 7.28% to US$78,325.54, its highest close since mid-May, and 24.38% over the week. Ether rose 8.14% and Solana 6.94%. The rally began on Wednesday, the day of the Treasury buyback announcement. It extended on Thursday after the president pressed Congress to pass the Clarity Act. Fund buying ran alongside it. US spot bitcoin funds took in about US$1.9 billion over the five sessions to Friday and ether funds about US$697 million, reported as the largest week of 2026. The mining companies had a separate day. Riot fell 5.48% and CleanSpark 4.92% on questions about turning sites over to data centres. Bitcoin is still down 10.48% for 2026.

Levels are FMP end-of-day closes for the UTC day ended Friday 21 August, so they line up with the equity session. Crypto also traded over the weekend. Bitcoin closed at US$77,054.44 on Saturday and about 1% below Friday’s level on Sunday. FMP was still revising the Sunday close when this letter was written. Daily moves compare with Thursday, weekly with Friday 14 August, year-to-date with the 31 December 2025 close. FMP revises recent crypto closes, so exact levels may still move a fraction. Bitcoin’s equity link reflects the historical daily-return pattern, closest to the Nasdaq at about 0.5 and loosest to the Dow at about 0.4.

§ 07 — Metals & Energy

Gold rose 2.39% to US$4,680.60 and finished the week 5.48% higher. Silver added 2.09% and copper 1.82%. Gold usually does well when the return above inflation falls, which is what happened through Thursday, and just over half of the weekly gain came in those sessions. Friday does not fit that pattern. Gold rose again on a day that return turned higher, which rates do not explain. The two crude benchmarks split. Brent rose 0.65% to US$94.39 and WTI fell 0.88% to US$87.06.

§ 08 — Economic Calendar

US release times are Eastern. Singapore’s July inflation was released Monday afternoon local time. The Jackson Hole symposium begins Thursday 27 August and the Federal Reserve chair’s keynote follows on Friday. The keynote is not carried as a timed entry on the FMP calendar. Consensus figures and earnings estimates are FMP-sourced (Nvidia after Wednesday’s close, consensus US$2.09 per share).

July core PCE prices arrive Wednesday morning and decide which half of last week continues. Consensus is 0.2% on the month against 0.1% in June. Nvidia reports after Wednesday’s close, so its reaction lands on Thursday, when the Jackson Hole symposium opens. The Federal Reserve chair gives his first keynote there on Friday.

§ 09 — Macro Themes

1 · The bond market told Washington no. The Treasury doubled its buybacks on Wednesday and long-maturity yields fell for one day, then gave nearly all of it back within two sessions. With federal debt above US$40 trillion, investors are demanding a higher return above inflation to keep lending.

2 · Utilities suffer most when yields rise. The sector fell 2.28% on a day eight of the eleven rose, because its steady bond-like earnings compete with bonds for the same buyers. Real estate finished unchanged, so rates are not the whole story.

3 · Lenders are getting choosier. The riskiest borrowers now pay 1,035 basis points over Treasuries, the most since April 2025, on top of higher Treasury yields. Calm stock markets alongside tightening credit for the weakest is a combination worth watching.

4 · Money moved into the classic hedges. Bitcoin’s 24.38% week came on the largest reported fund inflows of 2026, and gold rose 5.48%. The mining stocks split on their own data-centre question, Riot down 5.48%, so the buying sits in the assets rather than the industry.

§ 10 — Analysis & Nuances

One story ran through the whole week: the price of lending to the US government. Debt crossed US$40 trillion. The Treasury doubled its buybacks of long-dated bonds on Wednesday and yields fell for one day before the selling resumed. By Friday investors wanted four to five basis points more at every maturity from one year to thirty, and the rise was entirely in the return above inflation, because inflation expectations did not move. That is the market charging the government more, not fearing higher prices. The assets that did best sit outside that argument. Gold gained 5.48% on the week, bitcoin 24.38%, and materials led Friday’s sectors on its miners. The assets that depend on cheap long-term money, utilities above all, lost ground.

What would settle it. Wednesday’s July inflation figures decide whether the market keeps charging more. A firm reading that pushes ten-year inflation expectations above 2.40% would mean the inflation half of the story has resumed and gold should hold its gain. A soft reading that returns the two-year to 4.19% would make Friday a single day rather than a turn. For bitcoin, two closes above US$79,058.51 confirm the break and a close under US$73,011.87 this week voids it. The Korean test is closed. Nvidia reports Wednesday after the close, and the new Federal Reserve chair speaks at Jackson Hole on Friday, his first public answer to the Treasury’s intervention.

FAIRCURVE · MARKET PULSE · 24 AUG 2026 · Data: Financial Modeling Prep and FRED (ICE BofA credit spreads). All figures reference the Friday 21 August 2026 session unless stated. Not investment advice. For informational use only.