Faircurve Global Market Pulse — Monday, 31 August 2026

Faircurve Research

Global Cross-Asset Daily

Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh used his first Jackson Hole speech to recommit to the 2% inflation target and to say the Fed will raise rates again if inflation does not fall. He also called the economy strong. Markets priced the first claim: the two-year Treasury yield rose 14 basis points to 4.34%, gold fell 2.88% and the Russell 2000 lost 1.39%. The second claim was already in doubt that morning, when the Chicago purchasing managers index dropped to 47.1 from 57.6, far below the 50 growth mark. The S&P 500 slipped 0.25% to 7,711.76 as money moved between sectors rather than out of them.

§ 01 — Equities · United States

Friday’s falls concentrated in assets priced off the next year of interest rates: the Russell 2000 lost 1.39% to 2,972.37, the largest drop of the four indices. The Nasdaq lost 0.52% to 26,402.42 and the S&P 500 0.25%. Both still gained on the week. The Dow closed 9 points lower at 53,559.99 even though seventeen of its thirty stocks rose. Caterpillar cut US$16.75 and Nvidia US$10.43, together more than the US$25.50 the other twenty-eight added. Amazon’s US$10.17 was the largest single gain and Microsoft added US$8.47. The VIX eased to 14.43.

§ 02 — S&P 500 Sector Map

Friday 28 Aug · sorted best to worst (1D)

Technology, the only sector that rose on Thursday, fell 1.55% and finished last, while five of Thursday’s ten decliners turned positive. Communications led at 1.42% and consumer discretionary added 1.15%, helped by Amazon’s 3.97% rise. Utilities lost 1.04% and industrials 0.93%. Energy keeps the 2026 lead at 40.19% with technology second at 28.98%, and on the week health care’s 1.98% fall is the worst of the eleven.

Full table · sorted by YTD

§ 03 — Equities · Global

All figures reference Friday 28 August closes from FMP end-of-day data. One-week moves compare with Friday 21 August and year-to-date with each market’s last 2025 close. All ten markets traded on both reference days. Asian markets closed before the Federal Reserve chair’s speech, which began at 10:00 New York time on Friday, and European markets closed within about ninety minutes of its start, so closes outside New York carry little of its effect.

Seoul fell 1.79% to 6,788.88, back below the 13 August close of 6,813.34 this letter tracks, one day after recovering it. Eight of the ten markets rose. All ten closed before or shortly after the speech began, and today’s sessions price it together with the weekend United States strike on Iranian launchers. Frankfurt’s 1.67% weekly rise led Europe. Korea still leads the year at 61.10%, ahead of Taiwan at 59.96%.

§ 04 — US Treasuries

3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 6M 2Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y

Every Treasury maturity rose on Friday and the two-year rose most, adding 14 basis points to 4.34%, its second-largest one-day rise of 2026 and its highest close since 23 July. The thirty-year added 3 to 5.22%. That ended three sessions below the 5.20% line tracked since the Treasury enlarged its bond buying on 20 August. The break coincided with the speech, so it settles nothing about the buying, which starts 9 September. The gap between two-year and ten-year yields narrowed 8 basis points to 39, and the gap between two-year and thirty-year yields narrowed 11 to 88. The weekly changes split by timing: the thirty-year’s 5 basis point weekly fall came on Monday and Tuesday, while the two-year’s 10 basis point weekly rise came entirely from Friday. Bill yields rise all the way out to the two-year, so no rate cut is priced.

§ 05 — Credit Spreads

Three of the four credit tiers narrowed on Thursday, the last session in FRED’s series, so this table predates the speech entirely. High yield tightened 4 basis points to 263 and is 12 lower on the week. Investment grade sits at 79 and BBB at 98, both within 3 basis points of their start to the year. The CCC and lower tier was unchanged at 1,031 and remains 146 basis points wider for 2026. A rise in these spreads this week would show the higher rate path reaching borrowers.

Credit spreads are FRED ICE BofA option-adjusted spreads (IG BAMLC0A0CM, BBB BAMLC0A4CBBB, HY BAMLH0A0HYM2, CCC & Lower BAMLH0A3HYC) as of the Thursday 27 August close, the latest observation FRED has published, so this table runs one session behind the rest of this letter. One-day changes reference the Wednesday 26 August close, one-week changes the Thursday 20 August close, and year-to-date the last 2025 observation. Widening (positive basis points) reads as stress. Narrowing reads as relief.

§ 06 — Digital Assets

Bitcoin fell 3.03% to US$77,839.19 in the UTC day ended Friday, giving back more than Thursday’s rise on the day short-term rates repriced. Weekend trading did not extend the fall, with Saturday closing at US$78,233.93 and Sunday little changed. Ether lost 2.74% and Solana 4.61%, though Solana still holds an 11.13% gain on the week. Bitcoin is now 11.04% lower for 2026 against a 12.65% rise in the S&P 500.

Levels are FMP end-of-day closes for the UTC day ended Friday 28 August, the session this letter covers. Crypto trades every day, so the one-day change compares with Thursday 27 August, the one-week change with Friday 21 August, and year-to-date with the 31 December 2025 close. The Saturday close shown in the note was stable across two pulls this morning. The Sunday close was still settling at publication, so it is described without a figure. Bitcoin’s equity link reflects the historical daily-return pattern, closest to the Nasdaq at about 0.5 and loosest to the Dow at about 0.4.

§ 07 — Metals & Energy

Gold fell 2.88% to US$4,529.90, the usual response of an asset that pays no interest to a higher expected rate path. Silver lost 2.37%. Brent slipped 0.47% to US$88.10 on Friday after the United States announced an agreement covering Venezuelan oil reserves. Most of its 6.66% weekly fall came Monday to Wednesday, as the Iran-Oman talks progressed and before Friday’s announcement. On Sunday United States forces struck launchers on Iran’s Larak island, and Brent traded at US$89.48 early Monday. Copper rose 1.05% and is 17.19% higher for the year. Natural gas eased 0.89%.

§ 08 — Economic Calendar

US release times are Eastern. The euro-area flash inflation reading is 09:00 Brussels time. Consensus figures are FMP-sourced.

The speech made Friday’s August payrolls report the deciding release: the consensus expects a 45,000 gain after July’s 23,000 fall. A second negative reading would leave a central bank arguing for higher rates into a shrinking job count. Before it, ISM manufacturing and July job openings arrive Tuesday, ADP employment and the Beige Book Wednesday, ISM services Thursday. Euro-area flash inflation on Tuesday is expected at 3.2% after Spain and France reported faster August inflation. Broadcom reports Wednesday, the first large chip result since Nvidia’s.

§ 09 — Macro Themes

1 · Markets priced the inflation half of the speech. The chair recommitted to the 2% target and said the Fed will act if inflation stays high. Yields rose at every maturity, and rose most where a September move would land. No maturity prices a cut.

2 · Nobody priced the strong-economy half. The Chicago purchasing managers index dropped to 47.1 from 57.6 against a 58.3 forecast, and Michigan consumer sentiment ended August at 51.7, down from 55.2 in July. Both landed the same day the chair called the economy strong, and neither supports him.

3 · The index was flat because money rotated, not because nothing happened. Technology finished last one day after being the only riser, and Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet and Apple gained while Nvidia and Caterpillar fell. Investors who fear the economy do not usually start by buying the consumer sectors.

4 · Supply news from Iran, Venezuela and the United States set oil’s week. Progress in the Iran-Oman talks drove most of Brent’s 6.66% weekly fall and Friday’s Venezuelan agreement added the last leg. Sunday’s United States strike on Iran’s Larak island put Brent at US$89.48 by Monday morning.

§ 10 — Analysis & Nuances

Friday’s sharpest signal is the gap between what the two-year did and what the thirty-year did. A repricing of one or two policy meetings lifts short maturities and fades by the ten-year, and that is what the curve shows. There is a second, slower reading: a central bank that raises rates against inflation is one long-term lenders charge less to wait for. Friday alone supports it only weakly, and the thirty-year’s weekly fall came before the speech, so this letter treats the credibility reading as unproven. Through Friday’s payrolls, the credibility case needs the thirty-year to hold near 5.22% while the two-year stays above 4.30%. If long yields instead climb after the short ones, the speech shifted levels, and long yields stay tied to how much the government must borrow.

Thursday’s letter asked whether that day’s narrow gain would spread over two sessions, and day one answered rotation. Five sectors rose against six, an improvement on one of eleven, with the index down 0.25%. Tonight’s session closes the question with the speech and the weekend strike both priced, and Seoul reports first from under its 13 August line. Faircurve expects the labour data, not the speech, to decide September. The chair made the next rise conditional on inflation, and the last payrolls report showed jobs falling. Friday puts those two facts against each other.

FAIRCURVE · MARKET PULSE · 31 AUG 2026 · Data: Financial Modeling Prep and FRED (ICE BofA credit spreads). All figures reference the Friday 28 August 2026 session unless stated. Not investment advice. For informational use only.