Faircurve Global Market Pulse — Thursday, 27 August 2026

Faircurve Research

Global Cross-Asset Daily

Amazon tripled its order of Nvidia chips and Nvidia told investors to expect US$108 billion of revenue next quarter, both announced after Wednesday’s close. The reported quarter more than doubled to US$96.2 billion, and the stock rose 4.71% in evening trading. The daytime session produced little. The S&P 500 slipped 0.04% to 7,674.55 while July core inflation matched forecasts at 0.2% on the month and 3.3% on the year. Yields from one year to thirty rose 1 to 4 basis points on strong growth data, the thirty-year by 1 basis point to 5.18%. The Bank of Korea decides this morning, with the consensus expecting a rise to 3.00%.

§ 01 — Equities · United States

All four US indices closed slightly lower while investors waited for Nvidia. The S&P 500 slipped 0.04% to 7,674.55, the Nasdaq 0.08% to 26,130.20, the Dow 0.21% to 53,463.88 and the Russell 2000 0.14% to 3,005.90. Goldman Sachs took US$18.42 a share off the Dow, more than the next three drags combined. Caterpillar added US$10.64, the largest lift, the same morning July durable-goods orders rose 1.1% against a 0.5% forecast. The Dow ended the week less than one point above its level a week earlier. The VIX eased 1.55% to 15.21. The S&P 500 sits 1.60% below the record close set on 13 August.

§ 02 — S&P 500 Sector Map

Wednesday 26 Aug · sorted best to worst (1D)

Industrials led the eleven sectors at 1.09% after the durable-goods report, and health care finished last, down 1.00%. Five sectors rose and six fell. Merck lost 2.11% and Johnson & Johnson 1.15% as Washington prepared a new round of drug-pricing agreements with midsize biotech firms. Energy added 0.60% even though both crude benchmarks slipped, a divergence after Tuesday, when the sector fell with crude. Energy remains 2026’s best sector at 39.63%, technology next at 27.00%.

Full table · sorted by YTD

§ 03 — Equities · Global

All figures reference Wednesday 26 August closes from FMP end-of-day data. One-week moves compare with Wednesday 19 August and year-to-date with each market’s last 2025 close. All ten markets traded on both reference days. Asian and European markets closed before Wednesday’s New York afternoon, so Nvidia’s after-hours report is not in these closes.

Seoul rose 0.97% to 6,808.21 in the last session before the Bank of Korea’s Thursday decision. Taipei led the ten markets at 1.47% and Tokyo rose 0.62%, a second session of recovery for Asian chip names. Hong Kong gained 0.56% and Shanghai 0.59%. Paris added 0.27% and London slipped 0.07%. Korea still leads 2026 at 61.56% with Taiwan at 58.24%.

§ 04 — US Treasuries

3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 6M 2Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y

Growth data set the direction of yields on a day inflation matched forecasts. The Atlanta Fed’s tracker jumped to 4.6% and the three-year led, up 4 basis points to 4.29%. The two-year rose 2 to 4.19%, the ten-year 2 to 4.66% and the thirty-year 1 to 5.18%. The three-month and six-month bills eased 1 basis point. The two-to-ten-year gap held at 47 basis points. A five-year auction sold at 4.393%, below the prior 4.408%, so new supply was not the push. The thirty-year has closed below 5.20% twice since the Treasury said it would enlarge its bond buying from 9 September. Holding through Friday completes the check opened on 20 August. The two-year remains 11 basis points under 4.30%, the marker this letter set for a hot inflation month. Yields still rise with each maturity from three months to two years, so a rate cut is not in the price.

§ 05 — Credit Spreads

Credit spreads stayed quiet through the inflation report. Investment grade held at 81 basis points and BBB at 100. High yield widened 1 to 270. The CCC and lower tier, the premium the weakest borrowers pay, widened 3 to 1,039 and is 12 basis points wider than a week earlier and 154 wider for the year. The three tiers above it are close to flat for the year, so lenders are repricing only the weakest borrowers. These readings are Tuesday’s, the latest FRED has published.

Credit spreads are FRED ICE BofA option-adjusted spreads (IG BAMLC0A0CM, BBB BAMLC0A4CBBB, HY BAMLH0A0HYM2, CCC & Lower BAMLH0A3HYC) as of the Tuesday 25 August close, the latest observation FRED has published, so this table runs one session behind the rest of this letter. One-day changes reference the Monday 24 August close, one-week changes the Tuesday 18 August close, and year-to-date the last 2025 observation. Widening (positive basis points) reads as stress. Narrowing reads as relief.

§ 06 — Digital Assets

Bitcoin closed the UTC day at US$78,824.11, up 0.38% and 13.74% higher than a week earlier. It has now spent six days between US$77,000 and US$79,000, keeping the gains made after the president called on Congress to pass the digital-asset market structure bill. The Senate’s first vote is dated 15 September. Solana led the day at 4.56% and Ether rose 2.23%. All three coins remain lower for the year, bitcoin by 9.91%.

Levels are FMP end-of-day closes for the UTC day ended Wednesday 26 August. Crypto trades every day, so the one-day change compares with Tuesday 25 August and the one-week change with Wednesday 19 August. Year-to-date compares with the 31 December 2025 close. FMP revises recent crypto closes, so exact levels may still move a fraction. Bitcoin’s equity link reflects the historical daily-return pattern, closest to the Nasdaq at about 0.5 and loosest to the Dow at about 0.4.

§ 07 — Metals & Energy

Oil barely moved for a second session after Tuesday’s fall on the Iran-Oman talks. WTI slipped 0.16% to US$82.23 and Brent 0.84% to US$87.84, leaving both close to 4% lower on the week and still more than 40% higher for the year. Gold fell 0.88% to US$4,653.30 as yields rose. Copper lost 1.71% and natural gas rose 2.60%. Silver eased 0.96% and holds a 3.34% weekly gain.

§ 08 — Economic Calendar

US release times are Eastern. The Bank of Korea decides Thursday morning Seoul time. The Jackson Hole symposium opens Thursday and the Federal Reserve chair’s keynote follows Friday. Consensus figures are FMP-sourced.

Nvidia’s report gets its first full session of trading on Thursday, and the calendar stays full into next week. Jackson Hole opens the same day and the Federal Reserve chair gives his first keynote there Friday. Weekly jobless claims and a seven-year auction also land Thursday. Next week brings the ISM manufacturing survey, July job openings and the ADP employment reading.

§ 09 — Macro Themes

1 · The demand answer came from a customer. Monday’s fear was that big buyers designing their own chips need less from Nvidia. Amazon, which designs its own Trainium chips, tripled its Nvidia order by two million processors. At current demand the in-house chip and the bought one are complements, not substitutes.

2 · The growth data beat while inflation behaved. July durable-goods orders rose 1.1% against a 0.5% forecast, second-quarter corporate profits rose 8.2% against a 0.7% consensus, and the Atlanta Fed’s tracker moved to 4.6%. With inflation in line, the rise in yields traces to these growth releases, and industrials led the sector table.

3 · Suppliers were bought before the report. Twelve of the seventeen suppliers rose Wednesday while Nvidia itself fell 1.59% and the five big buyers split. Arista led at 5.92%. Investors bought the companies that sell alongside Nvidia before hearing from Nvidia itself. That order of events is what Thursday’s session must now justify.

4 · The Bank of Korea decides with its market 5 points under the line. Seoul closed at 6,808.21, a third consecutive finish below 6,813.34, the 13 August level this letter marked. Any surprise lands on a market stalled just under its old level, so Thursday’s close carries extra weight.

§ 10 — Analysis & Nuances

The after-hours gain prices what comes next, and that needs care. Nvidia’s reported revenue came in 4.28% above forecasts, a beat the market has seen every quarter this year. The numbers that moved the stock sat further out. The company expects revenue growth near 70% in fiscal 2028 and committed US$18 billion of equity investment in its own customers and partners. That investment figure needs careful reading. Money a seller places with buyers who then order chips supports revenue now and makes the true level of outside demand harder to measure later. Faircurve therefore weighs the Amazon order more heavily than the outlook. It is cash from the largest cloud company, tripled, from a buyer that runs its own chip program and has no stake in overstating Nvidia’s demand.

One question resolved on Wednesday and two resolve by Friday. Core inflation at 0.2% moved the two-year only 2 basis points, to 4.19%, so the cost of short money is settled for now. Today the supplier-versus-buyer reading this letter set on Monday runs. If Monday’s selling was doubt about order volume, the seventeen suppliers should rise more than the five buyers. If the two groups rise together instead, Monday was noise. The last question is whether the thirty-year finishes Friday under the curve section’s 5.20% line. It closed below the line on both of the past two sessions, including Wednesday, when every yield from one year out rose, the behaviour the Treasury’s enlarged buying was meant to produce.

FAIRCURVE · MARKET PULSE · 27 AUG 2026 · Data: Financial Modeling Prep and FRED (ICE BofA credit spreads). All figures reference the Wednesday 26 August 2026 session unless stated. Not investment advice. For informational use only.