Faircurve Global Market Pulse — Tuesday, 25 August 2026

Faircurve Research

Global Cross-Asset Daily

Nvidia told customers to expect price rises of about 15% on its next two systems, and seventeen companies that sell artificial-intelligence hardware fell together on Monday. Seagate dropped 6.51%, Micron 5.83%, Super Micro 5.56%, Western Digital 5.24% and Nvidia 2.91%. All five large platforms that buy the hardware rose, Meta by 1.66% and Amazon by 1.33%. Higher prices that hurt the seller and help the buyer fit one reading best: the market is marking down how many machines will be bought. Technology fell 1.78% and was the weakest of the eleven sectors. Ten-year Treasury yields fell 4 basis points to 4.70%.

§ 01 — Equities · United States

The Dow rose 0.26% to 53,417.16 and was the only one of the four US indices to gain. The S&P 500 fell 0.28% to 7,652.82, the Nasdaq 0.76% to 25,980.19 and the Russell 2000 0.76% to 2,995.08. Caterpillar cost the Dow US$16.88 a share, more than any member added, and Nvidia took off US$6.24. The index still rose because Visa added US$11.37, UnitedHealth US$8.65 and Travelers US$6.97. The VIX rose 4.76% to 15.85, still under its 50-day average of 16.76. The S&P 500 sits 1.87% below its 13 August record close.

§ 02 — S&P 500 Sector Map

Monday 24 Aug · sorted best to worst (1D)

Technology fell 1.78% and was the only one of the eleven sectors to lose more than 1%. Eight rose. Consumer staples gained 1.70%, financials 1.29% and utilities 1.05%. Industrials fell 0.69% and energy 0.83%. The S&P 500 lost 0.28% while eight sectors rose, the VIX stayed under its 50-day average and long-maturity yields fell: one supply chain repriced while most of the market rose. Energy remains the year’s leading sector at 41.15% and technology holds second at 25.06%.

Full table · sorted by YTD

§ 03 — Equities · Global

All figures reference Monday 24 August closes from FMP end-of-day data. One-week moves compare with Monday 17 August, and year-to-date with each market’s last 2025 close. Seoul was shut on Monday 17 August for a public holiday, so the KOSPI weekly figure runs from Friday 14 August and covers one session more than the other nine markets. Asian and European markets close before the US afternoon, so the later part of Monday’s New York session is not in this table.

Seoul fell 3.12% to 6,696.96, the worst of the ten, and closed back under the 6,813.34 level this letter has tracked since 13 August. Taipei fell 1.02%. Korea and Taiwan are the markets most exposed to memory and contract chipmaking, and both had closed lower before New York opened. Hong Kong fell 1.89% and Shanghai 0.59%. Europe barely moved: London rose 0.35%, the STOXX 600 was unchanged and Paris fell 0.37%. Korea leads 2026 at 58.92%, Taiwan second at 54.55%.

§ 04 — US Treasuries

3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 6M 2Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y

Yields fell at five years and longer while the two-year did not move at all. The ten-year fell 4 basis points to 4.70%, the thirty-year 4 to 5.23% and the five-year 2 to 4.41%. The two-year held at 4.24%. The two-to-ten-year gap closed 4 basis points to 46. Over the week the ends moved opposite ways, the two-year up 5 basis points and the thirty-year down 8. The Treasury said auctions continue on schedule and its enlarged buying of long-dated bonds starts on 9 September. The curve still rises at each step out to two years, the shape a market makes when it expects no rate cut.

§ 05 — Credit Spreads

The weakest borrowers are the only tier that has repriced this year. The CCC and lower spread, the extra yield lenders charge the riskiest companies, stands at 1,037 basis points, 152 wider than at the end of 2025. Investment grade is 2 basis points wider over the same period, BBB 1 narrower and high yield 11 narrower, so the other three tiers have gone nowhere. On the week the widening ran in order of risk, investment grade 1, BBB 2, high yield 3 and CCC 25. These spreads are measured over Treasuries, so the week’s 25 basis points is a judgment on the borrowers themselves, not on the level of rates. These readings are Friday’s, the latest FRED has published.

Credit spreads are FRED ICE BofA option-adjusted spreads (IG BAMLC0A0CM, BBB BAMLC0A4CBBB, HY BAMLH0A0HYM2, CCC & Lower BAMLH0A3HYC) as of the Friday 21 August close, the latest observation FRED has published, so this table runs one session behind the rest of this letter. One-day changes reference the Thursday 20 August close, one-week changes the Friday 14 August close, and year-to-date the last 2025 observation. Widening (positive basis points) reads as stress. Narrowing reads as relief.

§ 06 — Digital Assets

Bitcoin rose 2.28% to US$79,501.52 and is 23.29% higher over the week. Solana gained 33.68% across the week and ether 30.24%. Strategy, the largest corporate holder, sold about US$2 billion of its own stock last week and bought no bitcoin. Its holding is unchanged at 840,447 coins. The buyer usually credited with moves this size was absent. All three are still lower for 2026, bitcoin by 9.14%, ether by 16.07% and Solana by 18.42%.

Levels are FMP end-of-day closes for the UTC day ended Monday 24 August. Crypto trades every day, so the one-day change compares with Sunday 23 August and the one-week change with Monday 17 August, while the equity tables skip the weekend. Year-to-date compares with the 31 December 2025 close. FMP revises recent crypto closes, so exact levels may still move a fraction. Bitcoin’s equity link reflects the historical daily-return pattern, closest to the Nasdaq at about 0.5 and loosest to the Dow at about 0.4.

§ 07 — Metals & Energy

The United States said on Monday it would sanction buyers of Iranian oil anywhere in the world and signalled China would not be exempt, and both crude benchmarks fell 2.35%. Brent settled at US$92.17 and WTI at US$85.01. Three readings fit: enforcement may be doubted, the plan may already have been priced, or financial pressure in place of military action removed some of the price added for war risk. Gold rose 0.37% to US$4,697.80 while silver fell 1.35%.

§ 08 — Economic Calendar

US release times are Eastern. The Jackson Hole symposium opens on Thursday 27 August and the Federal Reserve chair’s keynote follows on Friday. The keynote is not carried as a timed entry on the FMP calendar. Consensus figures and earnings estimates are FMP-sourced (Nvidia after Wednesday’s close, consensus US$2.09 per share).

July core inflation arrives on Wednesday morning and Nvidia reports after that afternoon’s close, so the week’s two tests fall on the same day. Consensus for core PCE prices is 0.2% on the month against 0.1% in June, with the annual rate steady at 3.3%. Durable goods orders and personal spending come at the same time. The Bank of Korea decides on Thursday, the day the Jackson Hole symposium opens, and the chair’s keynote follows on Friday.

§ 09 — Macro Themes

1 · Rising prices, falling sellers. Nvidia is passing on about 15% higher system prices and seventeen hardware names fell together on Monday, from Seagate at 6.51% to Arista at 0.27%. All five platform buyers rose. Prices that hurt sellers and help buyers mean the market expects fewer machines, not cheaper ones.

2 · A supply threat that lowered the oil price. Washington promised global sanctions on buyers of Iranian crude. Brent and WTI fell 2.35% and energy stocks 0.83%: equity holders sided with the price, not the threat. Either enforcement is doubted, the plan was already paid for, or sanctions were read as a substitute for force.

3 · Only the weakest credit has repriced in 2026. CCC borrowers pay 152 basis points more over Treasuries than at the end of 2025 while the tiers above are close to flat. Lenders are refusing the worst credits, not credit itself. That selectivity matches Monday’s equities: a 0.28% fall hid eight rising sectors.

4 · A crypto rally without its largest corporate buyer. Bitcoin is 23.29% higher over the week while its largest corporate holder sold stock and added no coins. Whoever bought did not use a corporate balance sheet, and buying held in funds is easier to reverse.

§ 10 — Analysis & Nuances

Monday repriced how much artificial-intelligence hardware will be bought, not what it costs. Nvidia has told customers to expect about 15% higher prices on its next two systems as memory gets dearer. Micron expects about US$22 billion of deposits and related commitments and says data centres want half again as much memory as it can ship. On that news Micron fell 5.83%. A seller does not lose ground on higher prices and stronger orders unless the market doubts the volume behind them. Two alternatives fail on the evidence. Funds trimming crowded positions before Wednesday fails on the buyers: all five platforms rose. A defensive turn would not rank the fallers by their closeness to the memory market. Monday did: three of the four steepest, Seagate, Micron and Western Digital, sell storage and memory itself. Doubt about volume explains all of it at once.

The test is Wednesday’s outlook, not Wednesday’s quarter. Nvidia reports after the close, so the reaction trades on Thursday. If Monday was about volume, the revenue guide matters more than the margin, and a strong one should lift the seventeen suppliers more than the five buyers. If the two groups move together, Monday was noise. A core inflation reading above the 0.2% consensus on Wednesday morning that pushes the two-year over 4.30% puts the cost of money back into the argument. For Korea, a second close under 6,813.34 confirms the break.

FAIRCURVE · MARKET PULSE · 25 AUG 2026 · Data: Financial Modeling Prep and FRED (ICE BofA credit spreads). All figures reference the Monday 24 August 2026 session unless stated. Not investment advice. For informational use only.