Global Market Pulse — Friday, Sep 4, 2026

Faircurve Research

Global Cross-Asset Daily

Federal Reserve governor Christopher Waller said he could support holding rates steady this month because inflation is slowing, and the assets that price off interest rates recovered at once. The two-year Treasury yield fell 5 basis points from its 2026 high to 4.34%, and the ten-year eased 2 to 4.77%. The S&P 500 rose 1.06% to 7,747.71 and the Dow added 624.16 points. The gains ranked by distance from cash flow: bitcoin 4.98%, silver 3.42%, gold 2.84%, the Nasdaq 1.40%. The morning’s services survey argued the other way, with its prices measure up at 72.6. The August payrolls report, expected at 56,000 jobs, lands tonight.

§ 01 — Equities · United States

The Nasdaq rose 1.40% to 26,584.06, the day’s largest gain of the four indexes, helped by Nvidia’s 1.80% rise after it agreed to buy the software firm Hugging Face. The Dow added 624.16 points, or 1.18%, to 53,686.11, and the S&P 500 rose 1.06% to 7,747.71, turning both positive for the week. The Russell 2000 gained the least at 0.51% and is still 1.53% lower on the week. Smaller companies gain from lower rates but carry the most credit risk. Spreads on the weakest borrowers were still widening in the latest data, so the lag fits the day’s pattern. Broadcom fell 2.74% after Wednesday’s results. The VIX fell 5.79% to 14.32.

§ 02 — S&P 500 Sector Map

Thursday 3 Sep · sorted best to worst (1D)

Eight of the eleven sectors rose on Thursday, led by financials at 1.56% and consumer discretionary at 1.39%, with real estate, the most rate-sensitive sector, up 1.19%. Technology added 1.29%. The three falls were staples, down 0.32%, materials, down 0.62%, and energy, down 0.74%, the day’s worst on a flat oil session. Energy still leads the week at 3.74% and the year at 44.53%. Utilities’ 0.84% gain turned the sector positive for 2026, at 0.80%, leaving discretionary and communications as the only sectors down for the year.

Full table · sorted by YTD

§ 03 — Equities · Global

All figures reference Thursday 3 September closes from FMP end-of-day data. One-week moves compare with Thursday 27 August and year-to-date with each market’s last 2025 close. London was closed Monday 31 August for a bank holiday. Asian markets closed before the Federal Reserve comments that moved New York, so their Friday sessions carry the reaction.

Asian markets closed before Waller spoke, so Thursday’s table shows the world before the New York repricing, and Friday’s sessions carry the reaction. Seoul steadied with a 0.26% gain after Wednesday’s 3.99% fall, easing the concern that Korean shares face a home-grown slide. Tokyo slipped 0.17%, a fourth straight fall, with a Bank of Japan rate rise expected this month. Taipei fell 0.67% and kept the 2026 lead in this table at 58.33% against Seoul’s 56.13%. Europe was open through the New York morning: Frankfurt rose 0.72%, London 0.70% and the STOXX 600 0.49%.

§ 04 — US Treasuries

3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 6M 2Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y

Of the eleven maturities this letter tracks, none rose on Thursday and only the one-month bill closed unchanged. The largest falls sat where Federal Reserve policy is priced: the six-month, one-year and two-year each fell 5 basis points. The two-year closed at 4.34%, below its 2026 high of 4.39%, and the ten-year at 4.77%, below its 4.79% high. Short yields fell more than long ones, so the gap from the two-year to the ten-year widened from 40 to 43 basis points and to the thirty-year from 88 to 91. That shape says the session priced fewer rate rises, not stronger growth. On the week the two-year and five-year are up 14 basis points, the ten-year 10 and the thirty-year 6. Yields from three months out to two years still rise with maturity, so no cut is priced. A hold is the most the market expects.

§ 05 — Credit Spreads

The 1,050 basis point line this letter set on Tuesday broke: spreads on CCC-rated debt widened 4 basis points to 1,053 in Wednesday’s data, the latest available. The tier is 22 basis points wider on the week, far more than any other: investment grade is 1 wider at 81, BBB flat at 99, and high yield 1 narrower at 266. For the year the CCC tier is 168 wider, while investment grade is 2 wider, BBB 2 narrower and high yield 15 narrower. The reading predates Thursday’s rally, and FRED publishes with a lag, so the first data able to show any relief arrives next week.

Credit spreads are FRED ICE BofA option-adjusted spreads (IG BAMLC0A0CM, BBB BAMLC0A4CBBB, HY BAMLH0A0HYM2, CCC & Lower BAMLH0A3HYC) as of the Wednesday 2 September close, the latest observation FRED has published, so this table runs one session behind the rest of this letter. One-day changes reference the Tuesday 1 September close, one-week changes the Wednesday 26 August close, and year-to-date the last 2025 observation. Widening (positive basis points) reads as stress. Narrowing reads as relief.

§ 06 — Digital Assets

Bitcoin rose 4.98% to US$81,158.00 in the UTC day ended Thursday, more than three times the Nasdaq’s 1.40% gain. Bitcoin’s link to rates is loose on average, and it swings furthest in the sessions rate expectations drive, because no income anchors its price. Ether rose 4.86% to US$2,506.91 and Solana 3.24% to US$103.65. Even after the jump, bitcoin remains 7.25% lower for 2026 and ether 15.50% lower.

Levels are FMP end-of-day closes for the UTC day ended Thursday 3 September, the session this letter covers. Crypto trades every day, so the one-day change compares with Wednesday 2 September, the one-week change with Thursday 27 August, and year-to-date with the 31 December 2025 close. Closes were re-pulled shortly before publication, though small revisions remain possible. Bitcoin’s equity link reflects the historical daily-return pattern, closest to the Nasdaq at about 0.5 and loosest to the Dow at about 0.4.

§ 07 — Metals & Energy

Silver rose 3.42% and gold 2.84% to US$4,539.90, the two largest gains in this table, on the day the short-term yields that set the cost of holding metal fell. Neither metal pays income. Brent slipped 0.12% to US$95.52, ending three straight gains while holding above the US$90 line this letter tracks. WTI added 0.32% to US$91.30. Copper rose 1.08% and natural gas fell 1.45%.

§ 08 — Economic Calendar

US release times are Eastern. Consensus figures are FMP-sourced as of this morning. The August inflation report lands Friday 11 September, ahead of the Federal Reserve’s mid-September meeting.

The August payrolls report lands tonight at 08:30 New York time, with the consensus at 56,000 jobs after July’s 23,000 fall and unemployment steady at 4.1%. OPEC meets Sunday on output. American markets close Monday for Labor Day. China reports trade Tuesday and inflation Wednesday. Thursday brings the European Central Bank decision, American producer prices and a thirty-year bond auction. The August consumer inflation report follows Friday 11 September, the last major reading before the Federal Reserve’s mid-September meeting.

§ 09 — Macro Themes

1 · The session ranked assets by rate sensitivity. The further an asset sits from cash flow, the more it gained: bitcoin 4.98%, silver 3.42%, gold 2.84%, stock indexes near 1%, and the Russell 2000, most exposed to weak borrowers, 0.51%. Investors repriced the path of rates, not growth or credit.

2 · The same survey fed both camps. The services survey beat at 55.4, its prices measure rose to 72.6 from 70.3, and its employment measure stayed below 50 at 47.8. Activity strong, prices hot, hiring weak: whichever case the Federal Reserve argues this month, this report supplies a line.

3 · The credit stress line broke before the relief arrived. CCC spreads crossed 1,050 basis points in data that ends Wednesday, before the rally. The next release shows whether the weakest borrowers shared in Thursday’s repricing or kept paying more while everything else recovered.

4 · Asia’s pressure test came back split. Seoul steadied at 0.26% higher, so Wednesday’s 3.99% fall reads as a shakeout rather than a turn. Tokyo fell a fourth straight session with a Bank of Japan rate rise expected this month. The home-grown pressure sits in Tokyo, not Seoul.

§ 10 — Analysis & Nuances

One speech removed one day’s rise, not the week’s move. The two-year fell 5 basis points Thursday yet remains 14 higher on the week. That rise came in two steps, 14 basis points on Friday 28 August and 5 on Tuesday 1 September. Waller’s comments unwound less than half of it. The rally is a position taken hours ahead of evidence. A payrolls count near the 56,000 consensus restores the rate-rise case within a day. A clearly weak count confirms Waller, and the one-year, which fell 5 basis points to 4.11%, should then fall furthest, the test Wednesday’s letter set.

Thursday’s ranking is also tonight’s test. If the jobs count comes in strong and yields rise back, the same order should run in reverse, with bitcoin giving back the most, the metals next and stock indexes least. If bitcoin holds near US$81,158.00 through a strong report, its rise was new demand rather than rates, the more important fact. The CCC line at 1,050 basis points is answered, broken at 1,053. The two markers still open both held: the two-year stayed above 4.30% at 4.34%, and Brent stayed above US$90 at US$95.52.

FAIRCURVE · MARKET PULSE · 4 SEP 2026 · Data: Financial Modeling Prep and FRED (ICE BofA credit spreads). All figures reference the Thursday 3 September 2026 session unless stated. Not investment advice. For informational use only.