Global Market Pulse — Friday, Sep 11, 2026

Faircurve Research

Global Cross-Asset Daily

Brent rose 6.34% to US$107.63, its highest settlement since 19 May, after reports that Iran was preparing to intensify attacks on shipping. Producer prices rose 5.4% on the year in August against 5.3% expected. Investors added to the Federal Reserve rises they already price: the two-year yield rose 13 basis points to 4.56% and every maturity from one year to thirty closed at a 2026 high. The ten-year rose 12 to 4.95%. The S&P 500 fell 0.58%, a fourth straight fall, and energy shares fell with it. Gold fell 1.20%, bitcoin 1.93% and copper 4.95%. The European Central Bank raised its deposit rate to 2.50%, as expected.

§ 01 — Equities · United States

The S&P 500 fell 0.58% to 7,591.70, its fourth straight fall and 2.01% below its 3 September close, on a day the ten-year yield rose 12 basis points. The Russell 2000 fell most at 1.04%. Its companies borrow at the two- to five-year maturities, where yields rose most. The Nasdaq fell 0.65% and the Dow 0.60%. Of 30 Dow stocks, 23 fell, Caterpillar the largest dollar loss. Micron fell 4.90% to US$977.41, below the US$1,016.59 line this letter has tracked, and the chip index 2.66%. The VIX rose 8.38% to 17.84.

§ 02 — S&P 500 Sector Map

Thursday 10 Sep · sorted best to worst (1D)

Energy fell 0.58% on a day Brent rose 6.34% and is 0.48% higher on a week Brent rose 12.68%. Investors are pricing what US$107 oil does to inflation and the Fed, not what it earns producers. Technology fell 1.41%, the most of eleven sectors, and materials 1.23% as copper fell. Communications rose 0.60% and staples 0.05%. Nine sectors fell. On the week energy is the only sector higher and leads 2026 at 45.22%.

Full table · sorted by YTD

§ 03 — Equities · Global

Global rows reference Thursday 10 September closes from FMP end-of-day data. One-day moves compare with Wednesday 9 September, one-week moves with Thursday 3 September and year-to-date with each market’s last 2025 close. Thursday data: the European Central Bank raised its deposit rate to 2.50% from 2.25% and its main rate to 2.65% from 2.40%, both as expected. Japan’s August producer prices rose 7.6% on the year against 7.4% expected. The dollar bought 154.36 yen at Thursday’s close against 153.51 on Wednesday and 160.17 on 1 September.

The European Central Bank raised its deposit rate to 2.50% from 2.25%, as expected, and the four European markets fell 0.49% to 0.76%, less than Wednesday’s 1.31% to 1.94%. Tokyo rose 0.20%, the only market of ten to rise. Hong Kong fell 1.27%, the largest fall. Seoul fell 0.25% and is 6.91% higher on the week. Taipei and Shanghai also fell.

§ 04 — US Treasuries

3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 6M 2Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y

Every maturity from one year to thirty closed at a 2026 high on Thursday. The three- and five-year yields rose most, 14 basis points, the two-year 13 to 4.56%, the ten-year 12 to 4.95% and the thirty-year 9 to 5.37%. The three-month rose 5, the smallest rise. It matures a day after the December meeting, so it already covers every Federal Reserve decision left this year. Thursday repriced the years beyond. The one-year rose 11. The rise was largest at two to seven years, the maturities that price the Fed’s decisions over the next several years, and smaller at thirty than at ten. The two-year sits 56 basis points above the 4.00% consensus for Wednesday’s decision, from 43 on Wednesday and 34 a week ago. The ten-year’s 12 basis point rise is tied for the second-largest of 2026. The thirty-year auction sold at 5.308%, 9 basis points above August’s.

§ 05 — Credit Spreads

Wednesday’s reading widened CCC-rated spreads 8 basis points to 1,064, one short of the 1,065 line this letter set, and high-yield spreads 4 to 271. The gap between CCC and high-yield spreads widened 4 basis points to 793. Investment grade held at 81 and BBB at 99. Thursday’s reading, out tonight, includes a 14 basis point rise in the five-year, the maturity most credit spreads are set against. The 793 gap is the marker. It widening while investment grade holds at 81 would say the cost of Thursday is landing on the weakest borrowers only. Investment grade above 81 would say it is spread across all.

Credit spreads are FRED ICE BofA option-adjusted spreads (IG BAMLC0A0CM, BBB BAMLC0A4CBBB, HY BAMLH0A0HYM2, CCC & Lower BAMLH0A3HYC) as of the Wednesday 9 September close, the latest observation FRED had published at this letter’s deadline; FRED posts one business day in arrears. One-day changes reference Tuesday 8 September, one-week changes Wednesday 2 September, and year-to-date the last 2025 observation. Widening (positive basis points) reads as stress. Narrowing reads as relief.

§ 06 — Digital Assets

Bitcoin fell 1.93% to US$76,772.03, nearly three times the Nasdaq’s 0.65%, as the two-year yield rose 13 basis points. That makes four of five sessions this month when the two-year rose and bitcoin fell more than the Nasdaq. Ether fell 0.87% and Solana 2.33%. A core inflation reading below 0.2% today that lifts bitcoin more than the Nasdaq would say the rate link runs both ways.

Levels are FMP end-of-day closes for the UTC day ended Thursday 10 September. The one-day change compares with Wednesday 9 September, the one-week change with Thursday 3 September, and year-to-date with the 31 December 2025 close. FMP has revised Wednesday’s closes since yesterday’s letter (bitcoin 78,283.98 from 78,226.29, ether 2,467.50 from 2,465.14, Solana 101.54 from 101.20); the one-day changes use the revised bases. FMP revised Thursday’s closes again during this letter’s preparation (bitcoin 76,772.03 from 76,796.74, ether 2,445.92 from 2,447.80, Solana 99.17 from 99.35); the table carries the 08:55 Singapore pull. Bitcoin’s equity link reflects the historical daily-return pattern, closest to the Nasdaq at about 0.5 and loosest to the Dow at about 0.4.

§ 07 — Metals & Energy

Brent rose 6.34% to US$107.63 and WTI 6.69% to US$102.48, both their highest settlements since 19 May, after reports that Iran was preparing to intensify attacks on shipping if American strikes continued. WTI settled above US$100 for the first time since 19 May. Gold fell 1.20% to US$4,407.30 as the two-year yield rose 13 basis points. Silver fell 5.42% with no tariff of its own, so part of copper’s fall was a broad sale of metals. Copper fell 4.95% after reports the White House had yet to decide on copper tariffs, which had held American copper prices above world prices. Natural gas rose 0.43%.

Commodity rows are Thursday 10 September settlements from FMP, identical in the end-of-day rows and the quote endpoint’s previous close for all six contracts. One-day changes compare with Wednesday 9 September’s settlements, which this morning still match the values printed in yesterday’s letter. One-week changes compare with Thursday 3 September and year-to-date with the last 2025 settlement.

§ 08 — Economic Calendar

US release times are Eastern. Consensus figures are FMP-sourced as of this morning. Federal Reserve officials are in their pre-meeting quiet period. Treasury Secretary Bessent said on Thursday evening that a large bank would be sanctioned on Monday over Iran.

Today’s consumer price report at 08:30 Eastern is the last inflation reading before the Federal Reserve decides on Wednesday: consensus 0.4% on the month overall, 0.2% core and 2.4% core on the year. Michigan sentiment follows at 10:00. Tuesday brings the twenty-year auction and Wednesday the Fed decision, consensus 4.00% from 3.75%.

§ 09 — Macro Themes

1 · Rates cost gold, bitcoin, chips and small companies most. Gold fell 1.20%, bitcoin 1.93%, Micron 4.90% and the Russell 2000 1.04% as the two-year rose 13 basis points. Each fell more than the S&P 500. A soft core reading today that lowers the two-year lifts this group first.

2 · Oil producers were not paid for US$107 oil. Brent rose 6.34% and energy shares fell 0.58%. Producers earn more at this price, but investors sold them with the market. Energy shares rising more than the S&P 500 for a week would say that has changed.

3 · Copper fell further than its own news explains. Copper fell 4.95% after reports the White House had yet to decide on copper tariffs. A tariff keeps American copper above world copper, and doubt removes that premium. Copper back above US$6.89 while silver stays lower would confirm the tariff. Both recovering together would say metals.

4 · Apple held the Dow up on product news. The day after showing its first folding iPhone, Apple added US$11.23 a share and offset 16.0% of the Dow’s dollar losses. Without it the Dow would have fallen about 383 points instead of 317.

§ 10 — Analysis & Nuances

Thursday’s moves have three causes, and today’s inflation report can reverse only one. The first is interest rates. The two-year rose 13 basis points and the assets that price off it fell more than the market. The second is oil. Brent is 12.68% higher on the week and energy shares 0.48% higher, so the rise is being priced for what it does to inflation, not producer profit. The third is news about a single company or metal: copper fell on tariff doubt and Apple rose on its product. Producer prices rose 5.4% on the year, and the monthly core measure rose 0.2% against 0.3% expected while the core yearly rate rose to 4.6% from 4.3%. One sub-line argues against a rise.

Each cause has its own marker before the Fed decides on Wednesday. For rates: a 0.2% core reading today with the two-year back below 4.43% says one soft report undoes Thursday and gold, bitcoin and chips recover first. The two-year holding at or above 4.43% on the same reading says the market prices the Fed on headline inflation, and this group keeps falling until oil does. For oil: energy shares rising more than the S&P 500 for a week while Brent holds above US$100 says producers are being paid again. For copper: a recovery above US$6.89 without a tariff decision says the tariff was not the cause. A lower two-year lifts all three, so read the second and third against the index.

FAIRCURVE · MARKET PULSE · 11 SEP 2026 · Data: Financial Modeling Prep and FRED (ICE BofA credit spreads). Figures reference the Thursday 10 September 2026 session. Not investment advice. For informational use only.