Global Market Pulse - Thursday, 17 September 2026

Faircurve Research

Global Cross-Asset Daily

The Federal Reserve raised its target rate a quarter point to a range of 3.75% to 4.00% on Wednesday, its first increase since July 2023, on a unanimous vote. Its projections raised the rate 0.5 of a point at each of the next three years and 0.1 at the longer-run horizon. Ten of the twelve Treasury maturities closed at 2026 highs. The twenty-year and thirty-year each fell 1 basis point. The S&P 500 lost 0.45% to 7,551.81 and the Dow 1.21%. Technology and health care were the only sectors to rise, and gold rose 1.26%.

§ 01 — Equities · United States

The Dow fell 1.21% and the Nasdaq Composite 0.01%, a gap of 1.20 percentage points in one session. The S&P 500 lost 0.45% to 7,551.81 and the Russell 2000 0.40%. The S&P 500 has fallen in four of the last six sessions and is 2.16% below its 4 September close of 7,718.60. All four are lower on the week, the Russell 2000 worst at 2.14%. The VIX rose 0.51 of a point to 17.71 against a fifty-day average of 16.17, a contained reaction to a first rate increase in three years.

§ 02 — S&P 500 Sector Map

Wednesday 16 Sep · sorted best to worst (1D)

Technology rose 0.10% and health care 0.07%. Utilities was unchanged. The other eight sectors fell, led by energy at 2.88% and financials at 1.62%. The two falls have different causes. Crude lost 3.21% the same day, so energy tracked oil rather than the Federal Reserve. Banks pay at short maturities and are paid at intermediate ones, and the gap between two-year and ten-year yields narrowed to 27 basis points from 33, compressing that margin. Energy still leads the year at 43.21% and technology follows at 27.76%. Utilities traded as low as 41.15, its lowest level of the past year.

Full table · sorted by YTD

§ 03 — Equities · Global

Global rows reference Wednesday 16 September closes from FMP end-of-day data. One-day moves compare with Tuesday 15 September and one-week moves with Wednesday 9 September, which was a full trading day in every market shown, so there is no mixed window this week. Year-to-date compares with each market’s last 2025 close. Every market in this table closed before the Federal Reserve announced at 14:00 in New York, so none of these closes reflects the decision. The dollar bought 155.08 yen at Wednesday’s close.

Nine of the ten markets rose, and every one of them closed before the Federal Reserve decided. Seoul gained most at 1.37%, then Taipei at 0.74%, Shanghai at 0.71% and Tokyo at 0.69%. The four European markets rose between 0.28% and 0.62%. Singapore was the only market lower, at 0.06%. Thursday in Asia is therefore the first session outside the United States to trade the decision. Nine of the ten are lower on the week, London the only exception at 0.17% higher and Seoul the worst at 4.73% lower. Seoul leads the year at 59.41%.

§ 04 — US Treasuries

3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 6M 2Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y

Every maturity from one month to ten years closed at a 2026 high. The twenty-year and thirty-year each fell 1 basis point, too small to read on its own. The week is the better measure. The two-year rose 31 basis points to 4.74% and the thirty-year 7 to 5.35%. The gap between them is 61 basis points, from 69 on Tuesday, 85 a week ago and 137 at the end of 2025. The thirty-year sits below its 2026 high of 5.37% set on 10 September, and the twenty-year below its 5.40% of Tuesday.

§ 05 — Credit Spreads

High-yield spreads widened 5 basis points to 276 in Tuesday’s reading and CCC-rated spreads 4 to 1,085. Investment grade held at 80. The same split runs through the year, and it is confined to one tier. CCC spreads are 200 basis points wider than at the end of 2025 while investment grade is 1 wider, high yield 5 narrower and BBB 3 narrower. Only the weakest borrowers have repriced, and they refinance against a five-year Treasury yield of 4.86%, a 2026 high. This block is one session behind the letter.

Credit spreads are FRED ICE BofA option-adjusted spreads (IG BAMLC0A0CM, BBB BAMLC0A4CBBB, HY BAMLH0A0HYM2, CCC & Lower BAMLH0A3HYC) as of the Tuesday 15 September close, the latest observation FRED had published at this letter’s deadline. FRED posts one business day in arrears, so this section does not yet reflect the Federal Reserve decision the rest of the letter covers. One-day changes reference Monday 14 September, one-week changes Monday 8 September, and year-to-date the last 2025 observation. Widening (positive basis points) reads as stress. Narrowing reads as relief.

§ 06 — Digital Assets

The three largest coins rose while American equities fell. Solana gained 1.76% to US$98.52, ether 0.80% to US$2,415.28 and bitcoin 0.75% to US$76,151.34. Crypto trades without a daily close, so Wednesday’s figure covers the UTC day and carries only part of the reaction. All three are lower on the week. On the year bitcoin is down 12.97% and solana 20.84%. These gains came the day after the Senate failed to pass the Clarity Act, not because of it.

Levels are FMP end-of-day closes for the UTC day ended Wednesday 16 September. The one-day change compares with Tuesday 15 September, the one-week change with Wednesday 9 September, and year-to-date with the 31 December 2025 close. Crypto trades without a daily close, so the Federal Reserve announcement at 18:00 UTC falls late in the session shown and the full reaction sits partly in Thursday’s UTC day. Bitcoin’s equity link reflects the historical daily-return pattern, closest to the Nasdaq at about 0.5 and loosest to the Dow at about 0.4.

§ 07 — Metals & Energy

Gold rose 1.26% to US$4,387.50 on a day the two-year Treasury yield rose 7 basis points to a 2026 high of 4.74%. Cash began paying more and gold rose anyway, which is what happens when gold prices off long-dated yields rather than the policy rate. Silver gained 1.66% and copper 1.02%. American crude fell 3.21% to US$102.43 and Brent 2.69%, giving back part of a week in which crude is 6.64% higher. Crude is 78.39% above its last 2025 settlement and Brent 73.92%, the two largest moves in this table.

Commodity rows are Wednesday 16 September settlements from FMP end-of-day data. One-day changes compare with Tuesday 15 September, one-week changes with Wednesday 9 September and year-to-date with the last 2025 settlement. Thursday morning quotes are live and are not shown.

§ 08 — Economic Calendar

US release times are Eastern. Other rows carry their local time zone. Consensus figures are FMP-sourced as of this morning. FMP’s calendar shows no high-impact euro-area release in this window; the German producer-price reading on Friday and the euro-area purchasing managers’ surveys next Wednesday are the largest European data points.

The Bank of England decides on Thursday at 12:00 London time, consensus 3.75% unchanged, and the Bank of Japan on Friday, consensus 1.25% from 1.00%. Japan raising in the same week as the United States would put two major bond markets into tightening at once. August housing starts come Thursday morning in New York, consensus 1.31 million, and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index is expected at 30.5 after 47.4.

§ 09 — Macro Themes

1 · The Federal Reserve raised the path, not the destination. Its projections moved the rate 0.5 of a point higher at each of the next three years, to 4.1%, 3.9% and 3.6%, and only 0.1 higher at the longer-run horizon, to 3.2%.

2 · Short-maturity yields price no easing behind that. The three-month bill pays 4.14%, the six-month 4.22%, the one-year 4.45% and the two-year 4.74%. Each longer maturity pays more, which prices more increases and not cuts.

3 · It tightened into acceleration, not into weakness. The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s third-quarter growth estimate rose to 5.1% from 4.4% the same day, a model estimate rather than a published figure but a 0.7 point move in one revision.

4 · Banks fell because of the curve, energy because of oil. Financials lost 1.62% as the two-year to ten-year gap narrowed to 27 basis points from 33. Energy lost 2.88% while crude fell 3.21%, so energy tracked the oil price and not the decision.

5 · No market outside the United States has traded the decision yet. All ten global markets closed before the announcement, nine of them higher. Thursday in Asia is the first session outside New York to price it.

§ 10 — Analysis & Nuances

Long-maturity yields have been trading the difference between the path and the destination all year. The gap between the two-year and the thirty-year has closed to 61 basis points from 137. Wednesday added to it. Short maturities rose while the twenty-year and thirty-year each fell 1 basis point, which on one day is inside the noise of a yield quote. Over the week the difference is readable, 31 basis points against 7. This is not a market expecting cuts, because every maturity from three months to two years pays more than the one before it. The thirty-year has taken 51 of the two-year’s 127 basis points this year, which is how investors say the increases will not last.

Gold is the second reading of the same thing, and it is why Wednesday’s 1.26% rise is not the anomaly it looks like. Gold pays no income, so it competes with the return on long-dated money rather than on overnight cash. Over the week cash improved far more than long money and gold fell 1.64%. On Wednesday long yields fell and gold rose. Both point the same way, so one test covers both. A thirty-year close above its 5.37% high of 10 September would say investors have stopped believing the higher rate is temporary, and gold should fall with it. Faircurve expects the thirty-year to hold below that line into next week. The Bank of Japan can contaminate that test, deciding on Friday with consensus at 1.25% from 1.00%.

FAIRCURVE · MARKET PULSE · 17 SEP 2026 · Data: Financial Modeling Prep and FRED (ICE BofA credit spreads). Figures reference the Wednesday 16 September 2026 session. Not investment advice. For informational use only.