Global Market Pulse — Friday, Sep 18, 2026

Faircurve Research

Global Cross-Asset Daily

The first full session after the Federal Reserve raised its target rate a quarter point to a range of 3.75% to 4.00% sent yields down, not up. Only the one-month and two-month bills rose, by 1 and 2 basis points. Every maturity from three months to thirty years fell, by between 2 and 8. The ten-year ended at 4.94%. The S&P 500 rose 1.14% to 7,637.76 and the Nasdaq Composite 1.69%. Nine of the eleven sectors rose and the volatility index fell 2.27 points to 15.44.

§ 01 — Equities · United States

The S&P 500 rose 1.14% to 7,637.76, its largest one-day gain since 4 August. The Nasdaq Composite added 1.69%, the Dow Jones 0.61% and the Russell 2000 0.55%. The week holds that same ranking with two of the signs reversed. The Nasdaq Composite is 1.29% higher and the S&P 500 0.61%, while the Dow Jones is 0.55% lower and the Russell 2000 0.56%. The year sorts them differently, with the Russell 2000 first at 15.82% and the Dow Jones last at 7.73%.

§ 02 — S&P 500 Sector Map

Thursday 17 Sep · sorted best to worst (1D)

Technology rose 2.25% and communications fell 0.58%, the two ends of the session. Financials was the other faller, at 0.09% lower. Nine of the eleven sectors rose. Communications falling on a day the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.69% is the odd result, and it is 4.56% lower on the year against technology’s 30.62% gain. Financials carries a level problem rather than a daily one. Banks pay at short maturities and are paid at intermediate ones, and that gap was 27 basis points on both Wednesday and Thursday, against 71 at the end of 2025. Energy leads the year at 44.22%.

Full table · sorted by YTD

§ 03 — Equities · Global

Global rows reference Thursday 17 September closes from FMP end-of-day data. One-day moves compare with Wednesday 16 September and one-week moves with Thursday 10 September, which was a full trading day in every market shown, so there is no mixed window this week. Year-to-date compares with each market’s last 2025 close, which is 30 December for the STOXX 600 and the Nikkei 225. The Federal Reserve announced at 14:00 in New York on Wednesday, after every market in this table had closed, so Thursday is the first session outside the United States to price the decision. The dollar bought 156.15 yen at Thursday’s close.

Seven of the ten markets rose. London led at 1.19%, then Taipei at 0.96% and the STOXX 600 at 0.86%. Hong Kong fell 0.44%, Shanghai 0.41% and Seoul 0.04%. Thursday was Asia’s first session after the decision and the result there was split rather than negative, while all four European markets rose. Six of the ten are lower on the week, Seoul worst at 4.53% and London best at 1.95% higher. Taipei leads the year at 59.81% and Seoul follows at 59.35%.

§ 04 — US Treasuries

3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 6M 2Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y

Every maturity from three months out fell, by 2 basis points at three months to 8 at five and seven years. Only the one-month and two-month bills rose, by 1 and 2, marking in the new policy rate. The ten-year closed at 4.94%, back below 5%. The largest falls were in the middle of the range rather than at either end, which matters for how the move is read. The week ran the other way at short maturities. The two-year is 11 basis points higher at 4.67% and the thirty-year 8 lower at 5.29%. That narrows the gap between them to 62 basis points from 81 a week ago and 137 at the end of 2025. Short-term yields still rise with maturity, 4.12% at three months against 4.67% at two years, so no cut is priced.

§ 05 — Credit Spreads

All four tiers narrowed in Wednesday’s reading, which covers the day of the decision and comes before the Thursday session the rest of this letter reports. High yield narrowed 6 basis points to 270 and CCC-rated 9 to 1,076, with investment grade and BBB 2 each to 78 and 96. The year separates them, and the separation is confined to one tier. CCC-rated spreads are 191 basis points wider than at the end of 2025 while high yield is 11 narrower, BBB 5 narrower and investment grade 1 narrower. CCC-rated spreads are also 12 wider on the week, the only tier of the four to widen.

Credit spreads are FRED ICE BofA option-adjusted spreads (IG BAMLC0A0CM, BBB BAMLC0A4CBBB, HY BAMLH0A0HYM2, CCC & Lower BAMLH0A3HYC) as of the Wednesday 16 September close, the latest observation FRED had published at this letter’s deadline. FRED posts one business day in arrears, so this section covers the day of the Federal Reserve decision and not the Thursday session the rest of the letter reports. One-day changes reference Tuesday 15 September, one-week changes Wednesday 9 September, and year-to-date the last 2025 observation. Widening (positive basis points) reads as stress. Narrowing reads as relief.

§ 06 — Digital Assets

Solana rose 3.00% to US$101.53, ether 1.20% to US$2,445.64 and bitcoin 0.28% to US$76,355.00. The smallest of the three coins rose most and the largest least. Crypto trades without a daily close, so the day shown captures the overnight reaction rather than the American afternoon. The day did not change the year. Bitcoin is 12.74% lower since the end of 2025, ether 17.57% and solana 18.42%.

Levels are FMP end-of-day closes for the UTC day ended Thursday 17 September. The one-day change compares with Wednesday 16 September, the one-week change with Thursday 10 September, and year-to-date with the 31 December 2025 close. Crypto trades without a daily close, so the UTC day shown runs to 08:00 in New York and captures the overnight reaction rather than the American afternoon. Bitcoin’s equity link reflects the historical daily-return pattern, closest to the Nasdaq at about 0.5 and loosest to the Dow at about 0.4.

§ 07 — Metals & Energy

Copper rose 2.34% and silver 1.81%, the two largest gains in the table, while American crude fell 0.51% and Brent 0.95%. Copper is 1.74% higher on the week and Brent 2.61% lower. Gold rose 0.28% to US$4,399.70 on a session when long-maturity yields fell, which is the direction that supports it. On the year crude is 77.48% higher and Brent 72.26%, the two largest moves here.

Commodity rows are Thursday 17 September settlements from FMP end-of-day data. One-day changes compare with Wednesday 16 September, one-week changes with Thursday 10 September and year-to-date with the last 2025 settlement. Friday morning quotes are live and are not shown.

§ 08 — Economic Calendar

US release times are Eastern. Other rows carry their local time zone. Consensus figures are FMP-sourced as of this morning. August durable goods orders on Friday 25 September is the only high-impact American release FMP lists in this window, so the purchasing managers’ surveys next Wednesday carry more than usual.

The Bank of Japan decides on Friday at 12:00 Tokyo time, consensus 1.25% from 1.00%. Japanese institutions hold a large share of long-dated American and European government debt, so a higher yield at home gives them a reason to bring money back. The dollar bought 156.15 yen at Thursday’s close. British retail sales come Friday morning in London, consensus 0.2% lower on the month, and American industrial production at 09:15 in New York, consensus 0.3% higher. August durable goods orders on Friday 25 September, consensus 0.5% lower, closes the window.

§ 09 — Macro Themes

1 · The increase lowered long yields. In the first full session after the decision the ten-year fell 7 basis points to 4.94% and the thirty-year 6 to 5.29%. A central bank that tightens and is met with lower long yields has been taken at its word.

2 · The week still prices more tightening, not less. The two-year is 11 basis points higher on the week at 4.67%, and short-term yields still rise with maturity from 4.12% at three months. Investors removed some of what they feared, not the direction.

3 · Banks carry the cost. Financials fell 0.09% and is 1.74% lower on the week. The gap between two-year and ten-year yields held at 27 basis points on Thursday, down from 39 a week ago and 71 at the end of 2025.

4 · The weakest borrowers did not join in. CCC-rated spreads narrowed 9 basis points on Wednesday but are 12 wider on the week and 191 wider on the year, while the other three tiers are narrower on both counts.

5 · Housing takes the rate first. August housing starts were 1.275 million against 1.31 million expected, building permits 1.394 million against 1.41 million, and pending home sales 4.7% lower than a year ago.

§ 10 — Analysis & Nuances

Falling yields after a rate increase have two readings, and Thursday supports only one of them. The first is credibility, where investors accept a higher rate now in exchange for a lower one later. The second is a growth scare, and the shape of the move gives that some support, because the five-year and seven-year fell 8 basis points against the thirty-year’s 6. The morning’s activity data settles it. Weekly jobless claims came in at 196,000 against 208,000 expected, continuing claims at 1,730,000 against 1,780,000, and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index at 37.8 against 30.5, down from 47.4. Housing was the exception and the expected one. Starts and permits both missed, which is what a higher rate does to the part of the economy that borrows most.

The cost falls on lenders and on weak borrowers, and both tests are dated. Financials is 1.74% lower on the week and CCC-rated spreads are 12 basis points wider while the other three tiers narrowed. The Bank of Japan decides on Friday with consensus at 1.25% from 1.00%, which would give Japanese holders of long-dated foreign debt a reason to sell it. Faircurve expects the thirty-year to hold below its 10 September level of 5.37% through next Friday. A close above that, or a second week of CCC-rated widening against a narrowing index, would say investors have stopped believing the increase is temporary.

FAIRCURVE · MARKET PULSE · 18 SEP 2026 · Data: Financial Modeling Prep and FRED (ICE BofA credit spreads). Figures reference the Thursday 17 September 2026 session. Not investment advice. For informational use only.