Global Market Pulse — Monday, Sep 21, 2026

Faircurve Research

Global Cross-Asset Daily

The Federal Reserve raised its target range a quarter point to 3.75% to 4.00% on Wednesday, its first increase since 2023. On Friday every maturity from two months out rose, the two-year to 4.76% and the ten-year to 5.01%. August factory output fell 0.3% against a rise expected. Only technology and industrials rose of the eleven sectors. Bitcoin still gained 5.93%, so this was no general sale of long-dated risk.

§ 01 — Equities · United States

The S&P 500 rose 0.17% to 7,650.50 and the Nasdaq Composite 0.39%, while the Dow Jones fell 0.18% and the Russell 2000 0.50%. Two up and two down, on a day yields rose 5 to 9 basis points, is a narrow result, and the week says the same. The Nasdaq Composite is 0.72% higher over five sessions, the Dow Jones 1.69% lower and the Russell 2000 1.50% lower. The S&P 500 finished 0.08% lower. The volatility index closed at 14.81 against a fifty-day average of 16.17, so the option market read nine sectors falling as calm.

§ 02 — S&P 500 Sector Map

Friday 18 Sep · sorted best to worst (1D)

Only technology and industrials rose, by 0.82% and 0.44%. Utilities and materials each fell about 1.4%, communications 1.37% and real estate 0.95%. Nine of the eleven sectors fell. Three of the five worst are bought for income, utilities, real estate and consumer staples, and a higher two-year yield explains those. Materials fell 1.42% on a day copper rose 0.45%, and communications fell 1.37% while the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.39%. Neither is a rate story. Both are also among the five weakest on the week, materials 1.88% lower and communications 1.59%, which reads as holdings being cut across several sessions rather than a one-day rate effect. Energy leads the year at 43.84%.

Full table · sorted by YTD

§ 03 — Equities · Global

Global rows reference Friday 18 September closes from FMP end-of-day data. One-day moves compare with Thursday 17 September and one-week moves with Friday 11 September, which was a full trading day in every market shown, so there is no mixed window this week. Year-to-date compares with each market’s last 2025 close, which is 30 December for the STOXX 600, the DAX, the Nikkei 225 and the KOSPI. The Bank of Japan announced its increase to 1.25% on Friday morning in Tokyo, before Europe opened. The dollar bought 156.85 yen at Friday’s close against 155.96 on Thursday.

All four European markets fell and five of the six Asian markets rose. Seoul led at 2.66%, then Taipei at 1.93% and Tokyo at 1.38%. Paris fell 1.49%, London 1.45%, Frankfurt 1.38% and the STOXX 600 1.11%. Singapore was the one Asian market lower, by 0.08%. The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to 1.25% from 1.00% that morning and Tokyo still rose, because 1.25% was the consensus. The dollar bought 156.85 yen at the close against 155.96 on Thursday. Seoul and Taipei are each more than 60% higher on the year.

§ 04 — US Treasuries

3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 6M 2Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y

The two-year gained 9 basis points to 4.76%, the five-year 8 to 4.86%, the ten-year 7 to 5.01% and the thirty-year 5 to 5.34%. Every maturity from two months out rose, and the one-month bill held at 3.97%. Short maturities rose more than long ones, so the gap between two-year and ten-year yields narrowed to 25 basis points from 27 on Thursday, 33 a week ago and 71 at the end of 2025. Over the week the two-year is 13 basis points higher and the thirty-year 1 lower. Short-term yields still rise with maturity, 4.14% at three months against 4.76% at two years, so no rate cut is priced. The twenty-year paid more than the thirty-year on both of the last two Fridays, 5.38% against 5.34% and 5.38% against 5.35%.

§ 05 — Credit Spreads

CCC-rated spreads are 1,076 basis points, 6 wider on the week and 191 wider than at the end of 2025. Investment grade at 78 and BBB at 95 are narrower on both counts. High yield at 270 was unchanged on the week and is 11 narrower on the year. A 129 basis point rise in the two-year yield since December has been absorbed by one tier. Lenders still fund investment grade borrowers at 78 basis points over government debt, and charge the weakest roughly fourteen times that.

Credit spreads are FRED ICE BofA option-adjusted spreads (IG BAMLC0A0CM, BBB BAMLC0A4CBBB, HY BAMLH0A0HYM2, CCC & Lower BAMLH0A3HYC) as of the Thursday 17 September close, the latest observation FRED had published at this letter’s deadline. FRED posts one business day in arrears, so this section runs one session behind the rest of the letter. One-day changes reference Wednesday 16 September, one-week changes Thursday 10 September, and year-to-date the last 2025 observation. Widening (positive basis points) reads as stress. Narrowing reads as relief.

§ 06 — Digital Assets

Solana rose 10.99% to US$112.70, ether 6.78% to US$2,611.34 and bitcoin 5.93% to US$80,875.04. Bitcoin’s gain is its largest in one day since 21 August. The week reads the same, solana 13.54% higher, ether 5.47% and bitcoin 5.31%. All three are still lower on the year, bitcoin by 7.57%, solana 9.44% and ether 11.98%. Buyers paid more for an asset with no cash flow on the day the ten-year yield rose 7 basis points. That breaks the simple duration reading of the session.

Levels are FMP end-of-day closes for the UTC day ended Friday 18 September. The one-day change compares with Thursday 17 September, the one-week change with Friday 11 September, and year-to-date with the 31 December 2025 close. Crypto trades without a daily close, so the UTC day shown runs to 08:00 in New York and captures the overnight reaction rather than the American afternoon. Bitcoin’s equity link reflects the historical daily-return pattern, closest to the Nasdaq at about 0.5 and loosest to the Dow at about 0.4.

§ 07 — Metals & Energy

American crude fell 1.58% to US$100.30 and Brent 0.91% to US$103.87, while silver rose 1.59% and gold 0.57% to US$4,424.90. American crude has fallen 5.23% from Tuesday’s settlement of US$105.83, and Iran has since said the Strait of Hormuz stays closed until its conditions are met. Crude falling while the closure holds says the lost supply is already in the price. Copper rose 0.45% and is 2.19% higher on the week. American crude is 74.68% higher on the year and Brent 70.70%.

Commodity rows are Friday 18 September settlements from FMP end-of-day data. One-day changes compare with Thursday 17 September, one-week changes with Friday 11 September and year-to-date with the last 2025 settlement. Sunday evening electronic quotes are live and are not shown.

§ 08 — Economic Calendar

US release times are Eastern. Other rows carry their local time zone. Consensus figures are FMP-sourced as of this morning. Tokyo is closed on Monday and Wednesday for public holidays and mainland China is closed on Friday, so Asian trading volume is lighter than usual this week. The three American note auctions matter more than the data in a week with no inflation or payroll release.

Three American note auctions carry this week, the two-year on Tuesday against a previous stop of 4.204%, the five-year on Wednesday at 4.393% and the seven-year on Thursday at 4.512%. No inflation or payroll release falls in the window, so the auctions are the clearest read on demand for government debt at the new rate. The American and Chinese presidents are due to meet in Washington on Thursday. The purchasing managers’ surveys land on Wednesday, the American composite reading expected at 55.2 from 56.0.

§ 09 — Macro Themes

1 · The increase is done and the market wants more. The Federal Reserve moved a quarter point to 3.75% to 4.00% on Wednesday, its first increase since 2023. The two-year closed Friday at 4.76%, which is 76 basis points above the top of that range.

2 · Higher yields did not sell long duration. The ten-year rose 7 basis points to 5.01% and the thirty-year 5 to 5.34%. Technology rose 0.82% and bitcoin 5.93% the same day. The assets with the most distant cash flows were bought.

3 · Soft data did not lower yields either. August industrial production was flat against 0.3% expected and factory output fell 0.3%. Yields rose across the curve regardless. Neither growth nor duration explains Friday on its own.

4 · One credit tier is absorbing the whole move. CCC-rated spreads are 1,076 basis points, 6 wider on the week and 191 wider on the year. Investment grade and BBB narrowed on both counts, and high yield was unchanged.

5 · Asia rose where Europe fell. Seoul rose 2.66%, Taipei 1.93% and Tokyo 1.38% after the Bank of Japan raised its rate to 1.25%. Paris fell 1.49%, London 1.45% and Frankfurt 1.38% the same day.

§ 10 — Analysis & Nuances

The Federal Reserve raised its target range a quarter point on Wednesday, its first increase since 2023, and the market spent Friday asking for more. Rates markets now price roughly two further increases by January 2027. The easy reading is that a 5.01% ten-year sold whatever pays out furthest into the future. Utilities fell 1.42%, real estate 0.95% and consumer staples 0.83%, which fits. Technology rose 0.82% and bitcoin 5.93%, which does not, and the materials and communications falls are not rate stories either. So the account that works is narrower than duration. Shares held for a dividend compete with a 5.01% ten-year. Shares held for a share of a larger future do not.

Credit gives the week its test. The two-year yield is 129 basis points higher than in December, yet investment grade sits at 78 basis points and BBB at 95, both narrower on the year. Only CCC-rated credit repriced, 191 wider. Faircurve expects the gap between two-year and ten-year yields to hold below 33 basis points through Friday. It is 25 now against 33 a week ago, and a move back above that level would say the market has stopped adding tightening and started pricing the supply of government debt. Tuesday’s two-year auction is the first read, and a stop within 5 basis points of Friday’s 4.76% would confirm demand is intact.

FAIRCURVE · MARKET PULSE · 21 SEP 2026 · Data: Financial Modeling Prep and FRED (ICE BofA credit spreads). Figures reference the Friday 18 September 2026 session. Not investment advice. For informational use only.