Global Market Pulse - Tuesday, Sep 22, 2026

Faircurve Research

Global Cross-Asset Daily

The S&P 500 rose 1.49% on Monday and 1.90% over five sessions. Eight of the eleven sectors fell over those same five sessions. Technology gained 5.74% and was the only sector to add more than 1% across that stretch. American crude fell 7.91% to US$92.37 after the American president said he would consider meeting his Iranian counterpart, and the ten-year yield fell 5 basis points to 4.96% with it. The two-year rose 11 basis points on the week to 4.76%.

§ 01 — Equities · United States

The Nasdaq Composite rose 2.26% to 27,122.09, the S&P 500 1.49% to 7,764.70, the Dow Jones 0.71% and the Russell 2000 0.52%. Over five sessions the Dow Jones is lower by the same 0.71% it gained on Monday, and the Russell 2000 is 0.58% lower. The Nasdaq Composite beat the Russell 2000 by 174 basis points in a single session. Neither headline index set a high: the S&P 500 closed 0.67% under its 52-week high of 7,816.70 and the Nasdaq Composite 0.25% under its own. The volatility index closed at 14.87 against 17.10 a week ago.

§ 02 — S&P 500 Sector Map

Monday 21 Sep · sorted best to worst (1D)

Over five sessions technology rose 5.74%, health care 0.75% and industrials 0.03%. The other eight fell, energy by 3.21%, consumer staples 2.96% and utilities 2.77%. Monday’s seven risers and four fallers is the exception, not the trend. Four sectors rose on Monday and still finished the week lower, communications among them at 3.56% up on the day and 0.28% down on the week. Energy leads the year at 39.70% and technology follows at 35.34%. They are the only two sectors up more than 10% this year, ahead of materials at 9.61%.

Full table · sorted by YTD

§ 03 — Equities · Global

Global rows reference Monday 21 September closes from FMP end-of-day data. One-day moves compare with Friday 18 September and one-week moves with Monday 14 September. Tokyo was shut on Monday for Respect for the Aged Day, so the Nikkei 225 has no one-day move; its one-week column compares the Friday 18 September close with Friday 11 September. Year-to-date compares with each market’s last 2025 close, which is 30 December for the STOXX 600, the DAX, the Nikkei 225 and the KOSPI. Tokyo is shut again on Wednesday and Seoul, Shanghai, Taipei and Hong Kong lose sessions later in the week for the Mid-Autumn Festival.

Every open market rose on Monday, Seoul by 1.65% and Frankfurt 1.29%. Over five sessions Singapore is the only one lower, by 0.75%. Tokyo was shut for a public holiday. Seoul gained 4.84% on the week and Taipei 4.05%. Year to date the semiconductor demand behind American technology has reached Asian exporters and has not reached China. Seoul is 66.29% higher on the year and Taipei 64.75%, against Hong Kong 2.29% lower and Shanghai 0.48% lower. Both Chinese markets did rise on the week, Shanghai by 1.66%.

§ 04 — US Treasuries

3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 6M 2Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y

Over five sessions the two-year yield rose 11 basis points to 4.76% while the thirty-year fell 5 to 5.29%. On Monday alone the two-year was unchanged and the ten-year fell 5 to 4.96%. The 16 September rate rise is why short maturities rose on the week while long ones fell. Three-month and six-month bills each rose 3 basis points on Monday while every maturity beyond two years fell. The gap between two-year and ten-year yields is 20 basis points against 25 on Friday, 32 a week ago and 71 at the end of 2025. Short-term yields still rise with maturity, 4.17% at three months against 4.76% at two years, so no rate cut is priced. The twenty-year pays 5.33% against the thirty-year at 5.29%.

§ 05 — Credit Spreads

CCC-rated spreads widened 7 basis points on the week to 1,083 and are 198 wider on the year. High yield widened 3 on the week to 268. Investment grade at 77 and BBB at 94 each narrowed 3. Borrowing costs rose for the weakest issuers over the same five sessions in which they fell for the strongest, which is the credit version of what the sector table did. Lenders charge the weakest borrowers roughly fourteen times what they charge investment grade.

Credit spreads are FRED ICE BofA option-adjusted spreads (IG BAMLC0A0CM, BBB BAMLC0A4CBBB, HY BAMLH0A0HYM2, CCC & Lower BAMLH0A3HYC) as of the Friday 18 September close, the latest observation FRED had published at this letter’s deadline. FRED posts one business day in arrears and did not publish for the Monday holiday-free session in time, so this block runs one session behind the rest of the letter. One-day changes reference Thursday 17 September, one-week changes Friday 11 September, and year-to-date the last 2025 observation. Widening (positive basis points) reads as stress. Narrowing reads as relief.

§ 06 — Digital Assets

Solana rose 15.97% over five sessions, bitcoin 10.76% and ether 10.33%. On Monday alone solana gained 6.96%, bitcoin 6.69% and ether 4.96%. Bitcoin closed at US$75,584.17 on 15 September, its lowest of the month, and has erased almost all of that loss since. All three are still lower on the year, ether by 6.45%, solana 4.47% and bitcoin 1.04%.

Levels are FMP end-of-day closes for the UTC day ended Monday 21 September. The one-day change compares with Sunday 20 September, the one-week change with Monday 14 September, and year-to-date with the 31 December 2025 close. Crypto trades without a daily close, so the UTC day shown runs to 08:00 in New York and captures the overnight reaction rather than the American afternoon. Bitcoin’s equity link reflects the historical daily-return pattern, closest to the Nasdaq at about 0.5 and loosest to the Dow at about 0.4.

§ 07 — Metals & Energy

American crude fell 7.91% to US$92.37 on Monday and 8.90% over five sessions. Brent fell 3.40% to US$100.34 and 5.05% on the week. Gold fell 0.93% and silver 1.09% the same day, while copper rose 1.06% and is 5.59% higher on the week. Oil and gold falling together while copper rises fits a war premium being withdrawn and does not fit demand being marked down. War damage to refineries means a cheaper barrel reaches the pump slowly, so fuel costs fall less than the barrel does. American crude is still 60.87% higher on the year.

Commodity rows are Monday 21 September settlements from FMP end-of-day data. One-day changes compare with Friday 18 September, one-week changes with Monday 14 September and year-to-date with the last 2025 settlement. Tuesday morning electronic quotes are live and are not shown.

§ 08 — Economic Calendar

US release times are Eastern. Other rows carry their local time zone. Consensus figures are FMP-sourced as of this morning. No American inflation, payroll or growth release falls in the window, and no major central bank outside Switzerland decides rates, so the three note auctions and the purchasing managers’ surveys carry the week. Tokyo is shut on Wednesday and several Asian markets lose sessions to the Mid-Autumn Festival from Thursday.

Three American note auctions fall this week, the two-year on Tuesday against a previous stop of 4.204%, the five-year on Wednesday at 4.393% and the seven-year on Thursday at 4.512%. There is no American inflation report and no payroll report in the window. The largest scheduled American data releases are jobless claims on Thursday, expected at 203,000 after 196,000, and durable goods orders on Friday, expected to fall 0.3% after a 1.1% rise. Tuesday brings a Federal Reserve speech and the two-year sale, and together they are the first test of who wants short government debt at the higher rate.

§ 09 — Macro Themes

1 · The day and the week point in opposite directions. The Dow Jones and the Russell 2000 both fell over five sessions, by 0.71% and 0.58%, while the S&P 500 rose 1.90%. Four sectors rose on Monday and still finished the week lower.

2 · The rate rise is recent and may not be finished. The central bank raised its target range a quarter point to 3.75% to 4.00% on 16 September, its first increase since 2023. One of its officials argued publicly for more on Monday, and no rate cut is priced.

3 · The oil price explains Monday, not the central bank. American crude fell 7.91% to US$92.37 after the American president said he would consider meeting his Iranian counterpart. The two-year yield closed the session unchanged at 4.76%.

4 · Gold fell with oil while copper rose. Gold lost 0.93% on a day the thirty-year yield fell 5 basis points. The war premium came out of gold and crude at the same time. Copper gained 1.06%, which is the counter-example that rules out a demand downgrade.

5 · Credit divided the way equities did. CCC-rated spreads widened 7 basis points on the week to 1,083 and high yield 3 to 268. Investment grade at 77 and BBB at 94 each narrowed 3 over the same five sessions.

§ 10 — Analysis & Nuances

Use the week as the unit and Monday stops looking like a turn. The S&P 500 is 1.90% higher over five sessions, but eight of eleven sectors fell and both the Dow Jones and the Russell 2000 finished lower. Technology was the only sector to add more than 1%. The Nasdaq Composite beat the Russell 2000 by 174 basis points on Monday alone. Over the same five sessions the two-year yield rose 11 basis points while the thirty-year fell 5, so the cost of short government borrowing rose as the index did. A gain produced by one sector while short rates increase is a narrow result, not a broad recovery.

What would change the reading. Faircurve expects the gap between two-year and ten-year yields to stay below 25 basis points this week unless the two-year moves. It is 20 now against 32 a week ago. Tuesday’s two-year auction is the first read, and a stop within 5 basis points of 4.76% would confirm demand is intact at the higher rate. The second test is participation. Energy is 3.21% lower on the week and financials 1.98%. If either rises with technology the index stops depending on one sector. Credit is the third check: CCC-rated spreads are 198 basis points wider on the year.

FAIRCURVE · MARKET PULSE · 22 SEP 2026 · Data: Financial Modeling Prep and FRED (ICE BofA credit spreads). Figures reference the Monday 21 September 2026 session. Not investment advice. For informational use only.