Global Market Pulse - Thursday, Sep 24, 2026

Faircurve Research

Global Cross-Asset Daily

The five-year Treasury yield rose 16 basis points to 4.99%, more than any other maturity, and ten of the eleven sectors fell. The S&P 500 lost 0.75%, the Nasdaq Composite 1.13% and the Russell 2000 1.77%. Utilities fell 1.92% and real estate 1.55%, the two weakest sectors. Energy rose 0.96% and was the only one to gain. Gold fell 1.33% and is now 0.52% lower on the year.

§ 01 — Equities · United States

The S&P 500 fell 0.75% to 7,706.03, the Nasdaq Composite 1.13% to 26,936.04 and the Russell 2000 1.77% to 2,838.66. The Russell 2000 holds smaller companies, which borrow at shorter maturities, and it fell more than twice as far as the S&P 500. The Dow Jones fell 0.68%. The volatility index rose 6.83% to 15.18, which is still below its 50-day average of 16.08 and below the 17.71 it closed at on 16 September. Protection cost more than on Tuesday and less than a week ago.

§ 02 — S&P 500 Sector Map

Wednesday 23 Sep · sorted best to worst (1D)

Energy rose 0.96% and was the only sector to gain. Utilities fell 1.92%, real estate 1.55% and consumer discretionary 1.50%. Those three carry the heaviest debt or the longest-dated earnings, so a higher discount rate cuts their value most. The middle of the table did not sort that way. Industrials fell 0.10% and staples 0.36%, less than technology at 0.47%. Financials sat mid-table at 0.47%, because higher rates support what banks earn on lending even as the gap between short and long yields narrows against them.

Full table · sorted by YTD

§ 03 — Equities · Global

Global rows reference Wednesday 23 September closes from FMP end-of-day data. One-day moves compare with Tuesday 22 September and one-week moves with Wednesday 16 September. Tokyo was shut from Monday 21 to Wednesday 23 September, so the Nikkei 225 has no one-day move and its one-week column compares the Friday 18 September close with Friday 11 September. Year-to-date compares with each market’s last 2025 close, which is 30 December for the STOXX 600, the DAX, the Nikkei 225 and the KOSPI and 31 December elsewhere. Thursday quotes from Tokyo, Taipei and Singapore were live when this letter closed and are not used.

Seoul rose 0.90% and Taipei 0.75% on Wednesday while every European market fell. Both trade on semiconductor demand rather than on American borrowing costs, and both lead the year, Seoul at 68.03% and Taipei at 66.27% against 12.57% for the S&P 500. The DAX fell 1.25%, the STOXX 600 0.44% and the CAC 40 0.39%. Hong Kong fell 1.01% and is 3.11% lower on the year. Tokyo did not trade: Japanese markets were shut from Monday and last closed on 18 September.

§ 04 — US Treasuries

3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 6M 2Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y

The five-year yield rose 16 basis points to 4.99%, the ten-year 15 to 5.11%, the two-year 14 to 4.85% and the thirty-year 11 to 5.40%. Medium maturities moved most and the longest moved least. That is the shape a change in the expected policy rate produces. A change in what investors demand to hold long-dated government debt would have done the opposite. The gap between two-year and thirty-year yields narrowed to 55 basis points from 58, while the gap between two-year and ten-year yields barely moved at 26. Short-maturity yields still rise with term, 4.19% at three months against 4.85% at two years, so no rate cut is priced. The two-year now sits 66 basis points above the three-month bill, against 55 on Tuesday, so the market prices more tightening than a day earlier.

§ 05 — Credit Spreads

Investment grade credit spreads are 78 basis points, BBB 95 and high yield 270. The weakest tier, rated CCC and below, is 1,076. The first three are tighter than at the end of 2025. The CCC tier is 191 basis points wider. The gap between that tier and the broad high yield index has grown to 806 basis points from 604 in December. Lenders are charging far more to the weakest borrowers and slightly less to everyone else. These series carry a publication delay and are current to 17 September, so they do not yet reflect Wednesday.

The four ICE BofA option-adjusted spread series this letter uses (investment grade BAMLC0A0CM, BBB BAMLC0A4CBBB, high yield BAMLH0A0HYM2, CCC & Lower BAMLH0A3HYC) are published by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and carry a publication delay of several business days. The latest observation available this morning is Thursday 17 September, so this block is current to that date and does not include the Wednesday 23 September bond move. One-day changes compare with 16 September, one-week changes with 10 September and year-to-date with 31 December 2025. Levels are converted from percentage points to basis points.

§ 06 — Digital Assets

Bitcoin fell 2.18% to US$84,322.75, ether 2.53% and solana 2.84%. All three fell further than the S&P 500 at 0.75%, because a higher expected policy rate raises the cost of holding an asset that pays no income. Over five sessions all three are higher, bitcoin by 10.74%, ether 11.06% and solana 16.86%, because 16 September was a low point.

Levels are FMP end-of-day closes for the UTC day ended Wednesday 23 September. The one-day change compares with Tuesday 22 September, the one-week change with Wednesday 16 September, and year-to-date with the 31 December 2025 close. Crypto trades without a daily close, so the UTC day shown runs to 08:00 in New York and captures the overnight reaction rather than the American afternoon. Bitcoin’s equity link reflects the historical daily-return pattern, closest to the Nasdaq at about 0.5 and loosest to the Dow at about 0.4.

§ 07 — Metals & Energy

Brent rose 3.86% to US$103.08 while American crude fell 2.57% to US$92.16. Brent now costs US$10.92 more than the American grade, against US$4.66 on Tuesday and US$3.43 at the end of 2025. The American administration is considering a ban on diesel exports. Such a ban would hold American barrels at home and raise fuel prices elsewhere, and the two prices moved that way on Wednesday. Gold fell 1.33% to US$4,318.40 and is 0.52% lower on the year, because a higher yield on government debt raises the cost of holding it. Copper fell 1.21% but is 18.86% higher on the year.

Commodity rows are Wednesday 23 September settlements from FMP end-of-day data. One-day changes compare with Tuesday 22 September, one-week changes with Wednesday 16 September and year-to-date with the last 2025 settlement. The Brent premium over American crude quoted in the note is the difference between the two settlement prices on each of those dates: US$10.92 on Wednesday, US$4.66 on Tuesday, US$3.40 a week earlier and US$3.43 at the end of 2025.

§ 08 — Economic Calendar

US release times are Eastern. Other rows carry their local time zone. Consensus and prior figures are FMP-sourced as of this morning. The window runs to Thursday 1 October so that it reaches both the August personal income and spending report on 30 September and the American manufacturing survey on 1 October. No American payroll report falls inside it.

Wednesday 30 September brings the August core personal consumption expenditures price index, expected at 0.3% on the month after 0.2% and 3.4% on the year after 3.3%. That release settles whether the market is right to price more tightening. Jobless claims are due today, expected at 201K after 196K, and durable goods orders on Friday, expected to fall 0.4% after a 1.1% rise. German inflation is due on 30 September at 3.1% after 2.9% and American manufacturing on 1 October at 54.0 after 54.6.

§ 09 — Macro Themes

1 · Two things lifted the five-year yield, and both point the same way. A September survey of American business activity showed prices rising faster, and a US$70 billion sale of five-year notes drew weak demand. The five-year yield rose 16 basis points, against 11 at thirty years.

2 · The year has compressed the reward for lending long. The gap between two-year and ten-year yields is 26 basis points, against 71 at the end of 2025. Investors are paid almost nothing for the extra eight years of risk.

3 · Only the weakest borrowers are being repriced. Credit spreads on CCC rated debt are 1,076 basis points, 191 wider than at the end of 2025. Investment grade at 78 and high yield at 270 are both tighter, on figures current to 17 September.

4 · The two crude grades moved in opposite directions. Brent rose 3.86% and American crude fell 2.57%. The gap between them widened to US$10.92 from US$4.66 in one session, on a proposed American ban on diesel exports.

5 · Among American shares the week split in two. The S&P 500 is 2.04% higher over five sessions and the Nasdaq Composite 3.69%, but the Russell 2000 is 0.70% lower and seven of the eleven sectors fell.

§ 10 — Analysis & Nuances

The only sector that gained did so through the cost that makes the inflation problem worse. American crude fell 2.57% on Wednesday, yet energy gained 0.96%, because Brent rose 3.86%. Two things hold the international price up. A proposed American ban on diesel exports would keep American barrels at home while fuel stays dear abroad. Iran's president also repeated that passage through the Strait of Hormuz stays restricted while sanctions hold. The sector gained on dearer fuel, and dearer fuel feeds the price data the bond market had just reacted to. Energy is a poor hedge against the rate move, not a good one. The same cost falls hardest on the borrowers already paying most: the CCC tier is 1,076 basis points, 191 wider on the year, against 78 and tighter for investment grade.

What would change the reading. Faircurve expects the two-year yield to hold above 4.70%, roughly where it stood before Wednesday, through the inflation release. A close below that level before 30 September would mean Wednesday's move has been fully unwound and this reading is wrong. Core personal consumption expenditures on 30 September, below the expected 0.3% on the month, should pull the two-year toward 4.75% and lift utilities and real estate. A reading above 0.3% should take it through 5.00%. In credit the signal is the weakest tier: if it widens past 1,100 basis points while high yield holds near 270, the repricing has moved from rates into credit.

FAIRCURVE · MARKET PULSE · 24 SEP 2026 · Data: Financial Modeling Prep; credit spreads ICE BofA via the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Figures reference the Wednesday 23 September 2026 session; credit spreads are current to 17 September. Not investment advice. For informational use only.