Global Market Pulse — Monday, Sep 28, 2026

Faircurve Research

Global Cross-Asset Daily

The three large-company American indices rose last week, and one driver sorted the losers inside them. Anything held for the income it pays was marked against a government bond that now pays more. Utilities fell 3.87% over five sessions and the weakest corporate credit spread widened 36 basis points to 1,112. Anything held instead of income fell as well, gold by 2.34%. What promises growth rose: technology 3.52%, the S&P 500 1.21% and bitcoin 3.98%.

§ 01 — Equities · United States

The S&P 500 rose 0.51% to 7,743.41, the Dow Jones 0.93% and the Nasdaq Composite 0.48%. The Russell 2000 added 0.07% on the day but is 0.80% lower over five sessions, the only one of the four down on the week. The volatility index fell 0.80 points to 14.87. About three-quarters of the S&P 500 sits below its fifty-day average while the index sits above its own, 7,743.41 against 7,636.09. It closed 0.94% under 7,816.70, the highest price it has traded at in twelve months, a level set during a session rather than at a close.

§ 02 — S&P 500 Sector Map

Friday 25 Sep · sorted best to worst (1D)

Only four of the eleven sectors rose over five sessions, and income holds three of the seven bottom places. Utilities fell 3.87% and are the weakest of the eleven, property 2.28% and staples 0.89%. Technology rose 3.52%, communications 1.94%, health care 1.37% and industrials 0.40%. Three decliners sit outside the reading: banks at 1.83% lower, materials at 0.38% and consumer discretionary at 0.42%. Energy at 3.53% is the oil price. Friday was broad, eight sectors up and industrials leading at 0.95%.

Full table · sorted by YTD

§ 03 — Equities · Global

Global rows reference Friday 25 September closes from FMP end-of-day data. One-day moves compare with Thursday 24 September and one-week moves with Friday 18 September. Three markets were shut for the Mid-Autumn and Chuseok holidays and therefore carry no one-day move. Seoul last traded on Wednesday 23 September, so the KOSPI columns run to that close against Wednesday 16 September. Taipei and Shanghai last traded on Thursday 24 September, so their columns run to that close against Thursday 17 September. Tokyo was shut from Monday 21 to Wednesday 23 September, so the Nikkei 225 one-week move compares Friday 25 September with Tuesday 15 September, five Tokyo sessions earlier. Year-to-date compares with each market’s last 2025 close, which is 30 December for the STOXX 600, the DAX, the Nikkei 225 and the KOSPI and 31 December elsewhere.

Tokyo rose 1.30% on Friday to 66,364.20 and is 4.54% higher over five sessions. Hong Kong fell 1.01% and Paris 0.04%. Every other market that traded rose. Three did not: Seoul was shut from Thursday for Chuseok and Taipei and Shanghai on Friday for Mid-Autumn. Those three must price Friday’s American gain and the weekend news on Iran in one session. Korea leads the year at 68.03%.

§ 04 — US Treasuries

3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 6M 2Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y

Over five sessions the two-year yield added 5 basis points, the ten-year 16 and the thirty-year 15. That is the rise every income holding was marked against. The gap between two-year and thirty-year yields reached 68 basis points, from 60 on Thursday and 58 a week ago. Friday widened it further: the two-year fell 6 to 4.81% while the thirty-year rose 2 to 5.49%. None of this is an easing signal. The Federal Reserve began raising rates on 16 September, and short-maturity yields still slope upward: the three-month bill at 4.24%, the six-month at 4.33% and the one-year at 4.50%, all below the two-year. The two-year sits 57 basis points above the bill, against 62 a week ago.

§ 05 — Credit Spreads

The CCC spread widened 36 basis points over five sessions to 1,112, while investment grade at 79 and BBB at 97 moved 1 and 2 basis points. High yield widened 10 to 280. The CCC tier is 227 basis points wider on the year and its distance from the broad high yield index has reached 832 basis points against 604 at the end of 2025. Credit default swaps on Nvidia, Broadcom, Oracle and Meta have also widened. Those are investment-grade names, so a widening there is a different signal from a widening in CCC. Taken together they point at the financing of data centres rather than at the economy. These series run to Thursday 24 September.

The four ICE BofA option-adjusted spread series this letter uses (investment grade BAMLC0A0CM, BBB BAMLC0A4CBBB, high yield BAMLH0A0HYM2, CCC & Lower BAMLH0A3HYC) are published by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and carry a publication delay of one business day. The latest observation available this morning is Thursday 24 September, so this block is current to that date and does not include the Friday 25 September session that the rest of the letter covers. One-day changes compare with 23 September, one-week changes with 17 September and year-to-date with 31 December 2025. Levels are converted from percentage points to basis points.

§ 06 — Digital Assets

Crypto is the counter-example, and it is worth stating rather than explaining away. It pays no income, so the opportunity cost that hurt gold should have hurt it. Instead bitcoin gained 3.98% over five sessions, ether 3.07% and solana 8.36%, with solana up 4.36% on Friday alone to US$122.12. Bitcoin slipped 0.35% on the day to US$84,093.13 and is 3.89% lower on the year. Spot bitcoin funds took about US$2.4bn of new money in the week. Money arriving beat the return on cash here, as it did in technology.

Levels are FMP end-of-day closes for the UTC day ended Friday 25 September, so the letter compares crypto with shares over the same calendar window. The one-day change compares with Thursday 24 September, the one-week change with Friday 18 September and year-to-date with the 31 December 2025 close. Crypto traded through the weekend and those moves are not in this table: bitcoin closed the UTC day on Sunday 27 September at US$84,463.58, 0.44% above the Friday level shown. Bitcoin’s equity link reflects the historical daily-return pattern, closest to the Nasdaq at about 0.5 and loosest to the Dow at about 0.4.

§ 07 — Metals & Energy

Gold fell 2.34% over five sessions, in a year when Brent rose 71.44% and gold is 0.46% lower. Over that week gold lost to a five-year bond paying 4.98%. Oil is a separate matter. Brent settled 2.14% lower on Friday at US$104.32 but is 0.43% higher on the week, while American crude fell 7.87% to US$92.41. Brent costs US$11.91 more than American crude against US$3.57 a week earlier, because the Strait of Hormuz is still shut and only seaborne cargoes are scarce.

Commodity rows are Friday 25 September settlements from FMP end-of-day data. One-day changes compare with Thursday 24 September, one-week changes with Friday 18 September and year-to-date with the last 2025 settlement. The Brent premium over American crude quoted in the note is the difference between the two settlement prices on each of those dates: US$11.91 on Friday, US$11.99 on Thursday, US$3.57 a week earlier and US$3.43 at the end of 2025. Silver settled at 64.801 and natural gas at 3.196. Both are shown rounded.

§ 08 — Economic Calendar

US release times are Eastern. Other rows carry their local time zone. Consensus and prior figures are FMP-sourced as of this morning. The window runs to Friday 2 October so that it reaches the September employment report, which is the largest scheduled test of the reading in this letter.

August core personal consumption expenditures arrive on Wednesday 30 September, expected at 0.3% on the month and 3.4% on the year, both above July. The September employment report follows on Friday 2 October, with payrolls expected at 100K after 162K and the unemployment rate at 4.2% after 4.1%. China’s September factory surveys land on Wednesday and the Japanese Tankan on Thursday. The two American releases are the ones that move the numbers above.

§ 09 — Macro Themes

1 · The twenty-year yields more than the thirty-year. It closed Friday at 5.54% against 5.49%. Lenders normally charge more for longer. The two swap places when one maturity has no natural buyer, and pension funds match payments thirty years out, not twenty.

2 · Silver lost more than gold on both counts. It fell 3.50% over five sessions and is 8.22% lower on the year. Silver carries an industrial case and a store-of-value case at once. The weaker claim gives way first when cash pays this much.

3 · Banks got nothing from a week of steepening. The gap between two-year and thirty-year yields widened from 58 basis points to 68 last week and financials still fell 1.83%. They are 0.13% higher year to date, the smallest advance among the eight that are up. One week does not undo a year of flattening.

4 · Copper is the control. It rose 1.11% over five sessions and is 19.08% higher on the year while gold fell. Copper is priced on building and electricity demand, which did not change last week. That is how we know the metals move was about yield.

5 · The year’s curve is flatter, not steeper. The gap between two-year and ten-year yields closed at 36 basis points, against 25 a week ago but 71 at the end of 2025. Long yields have risen a lot in 2026. Short ones have risen more.

§ 10 — Analysis & Nuances

One driver, two channels, and the exception is the point. Assets bought for the income they pay were repriced against a higher coupon: utilities, property, and the weakest corporate credit, which widened 36 basis points while investment grade moved 1. Assets bought instead of income were repriced against a higher opportunity cost: gold and silver, 2.34% and 3.50% lower. Four things sit outside that. Banks, materials and consumer discretionary fell without being income holdings. Energy fell on the oil price. Natural gas rose 9.75% on low European storage. Technology rose 3.52% against a 16 basis point rise in the ten-year. That last one is what to watch. A higher discount rate should hurt long-dated growth most. It did not.

What would change the reading. Faircurve expects two things to hold at Friday’s close on 2 October. The gap between two-year and thirty-year yields stays above 60 basis points, which is 8 below where it closed on Friday. Utilities stay the weakest sector of the year, a margin of 0.04 points over consumer discretionary. Either failing means the return on cash has stopped sorting the table and this reading is wrong. Both cushions sit inside one week of movement, so this is a real test. Wednesday’s core personal consumption expenditures and Friday’s payrolls set it. A payrolls figure above 100K lifts the two-year yield back above 4.87%.

FAIRCURVE · MARKET PULSE · 28 SEP 2026 · Data: Financial Modeling Prep; credit spreads ICE BofA via the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Figures reference the Friday 25 September 2026 session; credit spreads are current to 24 September. Not investment advice. For informational use only.