Global Market Pulse — Tuesday, Sep 29, 2026

Faircurve Research

Global Cross-Asset Daily

American shares fell on Monday as investors priced further Federal Reserve rate rises. Oil rose after the President rejected an Iranian proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and Fed governor Lisa Cook said the AI build-out will keep prices rising in coming months. Investors sold Treasuries, gold and silver, and moved from communications and discretionary shares into health care and staples. The S&P 500 lost 0.77% to 7,683.69. The two-year Treasury yield rose to 4.92%.

§ 01 — Equities · United States

All four indices fell, by between 0.67% and 0.92%, the Nasdaq Composite most. The Dow Jones lost 0.67% to 51,481.51 and the Russell 2000 0.69%. Over five sessions the Russell 2000 is 2.00% lower and the S&P 500 1.04%. The volatility index rose 1.20 points to 16.07, only 0.10 above its fifty-day average of 15.97. The S&P 500 closed 1.70% under 7,816.70, the highest price it has traded at in twelve months.

§ 02 — S&P 500 Sector Map

Monday 28 Sep · sorted best to worst (1D)

Eight of the eleven sectors fell. Health care gained 0.33%, staples 0.27% and energy 0.10%. Communications fell 1.58%, consumer discretionary 1.41% and financials 1.19%. Financials are now 1.06% lower for 2026, having been higher at Friday’s close. Over five sessions only health care and staples are up, and utilities are the weakest of the eleven at 3.47% lower. Consumer discretionary is the weakest sector of the year, 8.72% down.

Full table · sorted by YTD

§ 03 — Equities · Global

Global rows reference Monday 28 September closes from FMP end-of-day data. One-day moves compare with each market’s previous session and one-week moves with the close five local sessions earlier. For London, Frankfurt, Paris, Hong Kong and Singapore that is Monday 21 September. Seoul reopened on Monday after Chuseok, so the KOSPI compares with Wednesday 23 September for the day and Thursday 17 September for the week. Shanghai reopened after Mid-Autumn and compares with Thursday 24 September and Friday 18 September. Tokyo was shut from 21 to 23 September, so the Nikkei 225 week compares with Wednesday 16 September. Taipei was shut on Friday and Monday for Mid-Autumn and Teachers’ Day, so the TAIEX row runs to its Thursday 24 September close. The STOXX 600 is withheld: the FMP record for Monday shows a range of three hundredths of a point and no volume, which is not a real session, and this letter does not substitute another date. Year-to-date compares with each market’s last 2025 close.

Seoul fell 2.70% and Shanghai 1.67% in their first sessions after holidays. Both closed before Monday’s American trading. Faircurve reads part of Seoul’s fall as the weekend AI news, because its index is heavy in memory chipmakers. The KOSPI is still 2.60% above its close five sessions earlier. Tokyo lost 0.73%. Hong Kong rose 0.54% and Singapore 0.31%. London, Frankfurt and Paris moved by 0.18% or less. Taipei was shut for Teachers’ Day. The STOXX 600 is withheld because the data for Monday does not show a real session.

§ 04 — US Treasuries

3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 6M 2Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y

The two-year yield rose 11 basis points to 4.92%, more than any other maturity. The one-year and seven-year rose 9, and the ten-year and thirty-year 7, so the two-year’s lead is narrow. Last week ran the other way: from 21 to 25 September the ten-year rose 21 basis points and the two-year 5. The gap between two-year and ten-year yields narrowed to 32 basis points from 36, and the gap between two-year and thirty-year yields to 64 from 68. The firmer sign is the three-month bill at 4.28%: the two-year now sits 64 basis points above it, from 57 on Friday. With the one-year at 4.59%, that prices more rate rises, not cuts.

§ 05 — Credit Spreads

High-yield spreads widened on each of the four sessions to Friday, to 293 from 266 on 21 September. The CCC tier, the lowest-rated companies, widened 16 to 1,128 and is 243 wider on the year, 835 basis points above the broad high-yield index against 604 at the end of 2025. Investment grade as a whole, at 81, and its lowest BBB tier, at 99, each widened 2. These series run to Friday 25 September. Monday’s reading is published on Tuesday.

The four ICE BofA option-adjusted spread series (investment grade BAMLC0A0CM, BBB BAMLC0A4CBBB, high yield BAMLH0A0HYM2, CCC & Lower BAMLH0A3HYC) are published by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis with a delay of one business day. The latest observation this morning is Friday 25 September, so this block does not include the Monday 28 September session the rest of the letter covers. One-day changes compare with 24 September, one-week changes with 18 September and year-to-date with 31 December 2025. Levels are converted from percentage points to basis points. Daily high yield readings this run: 268 on 18 September, 266 on 21 September, 268, 273, 280 and 293 on 22 to 25 September.

§ 06 — Digital Assets

Bitcoin fell 1.20% on Monday to US$83,449.54 and is 3.63% lower than a week ago. Ether was flat, down 0.03%, and solana fell 2.66% to US$118.73. Bitcoin is 4.63% lower on the year while the Nasdaq Composite is 15.40% higher. An investigation by Senate Democrats found that wallets sanctioned over Iran ties dealt mostly in Tether’s dollar token.

Levels are FMP end-of-day closes for the UTC day ended Monday 28 September. Crypto trades every day, so the one-day change compares with Sunday 27 September and the one-week change with Monday 21 September, the same window as the share tables. Year-to-date compares with the 31 December 2025 close. Bitcoin’s link to shares reflects the historical daily-return pattern, closest to the Nasdaq at about 0.5 and loosest to the Dow at about 0.4.

§ 07 — Metals & Energy

Gold fell 3.54% to US$4,168.40 on a day the rejection of Iran’s offer lifted oil. Silver lost 4.76% and copper 1.96%. Gold is 3.98% lower on the year while Brent is 73.02% higher. Brent rose 0.92% to US$105.28 and American crude 0.21% to US$92.60. Brent costs US$12.68 more than American crude, against US$4.56 on 21 September, the day before the administration first said it was examining a diesel export ban. Faircurve reads part of that gap as the ban threat: it would keep more American fuel, and so crude, at home. Natural gas fell 2.82% but is 9.52% higher on the week.

Commodity rows are Monday 28 September settlements from FMP end-of-day data. One-day changes compare with Friday 25 September, one-week changes with Monday 21 September and year-to-date with the last 2025 settlement. The Brent premium over American crude quoted in the note is the difference between the two settlement prices: US$12.68 on Monday, US$11.91 on Friday, US$4.56 a week earlier and US$3.43 at the end of 2025. Silver settled at 61.718, copper at 6.6335 and natural gas at 3.106. All three are shown rounded.

§ 08 — Economic Calendar

US release times are Eastern. Other rows carry their local time zone. Consensus and prior figures are FMP-sourced as of this morning. The payrolls consensus has moved to 84K from 100K in yesterday’s letter, and the unemployment consensus to 4.1% from 4.2%.

August core personal consumption expenditures arrive on Wednesday, expected at 0.3% on the month and 3.4% on the year. Friday’s September payrolls are expected at 84K, with unemployment at 4.1%. The Reserve Bank of Australia decides on Tuesday and is expected to raise its rate to 4.6% from 4.35%. Micron reports after the American close on Wednesday.

§ 09 — Macro Themes

1 · Iran will not soften its terms, and Washington expects more talks. Tehran is sticking to its seven-day proposal for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The President said he expects further negotiations this week, and later reports said sanctions could ease if Iran shows progress on nuclear issues.

2 · American diesel costs US$6.45 a gallon. Stocks of diesel and heating oil are near their seasonal lows. On Monday the President said he is seriously considering the export ban.

3 · The US-China tariff deal left the hard issues open. The two sides agreed cuts worth US$60bn on goods such as dolls and fireworks. Rare earths remain a sticking point, and there was no breakthrough on AI, Iran or Taiwan.

4 · An AI safety scare hit some chipmakers and not others. Weekend news that a leading AI developer had suspended training on some models hit Micron, Sandisk and Marvell. Nvidia rose 1.68% to US$228.86, on a day reports said China may buy its chips.

§ 10 — Analysis & Nuances

Dividend payers fell first and consumer companies second, in step with the yields. From 21 to 25 September, when long yields led, utilities and property were the two weakest sectors, down 2.83% and 2.42%. On Monday, with the two-year leading, those two fell less than the S&P 500, by 0.66% and 0.51%. The selling moved to communications and consumer discretionary, which depend on household and advertising budgets that a higher policy rate squeezes. Gold and silver, which pay no income, fell most of all.

Credit spreads had already widened on Friday, when the S&P 500 rose 0.51%. Faircurve reads that as lenders pricing refinancing costs for the weakest borrowers before shareholders did. Three calls for Friday 2 October: the two-year closes at or above 5.00%, 8 basis points above Monday. Consumer discretionary trails the S&P 500 by at least 1 percentage point from Monday’s close. The high-yield spread for 1 October, published on Friday, is 305 or wider, 12 beyond 293. A core inflation reading below 0.3% on Wednesday would count against all three.

FAIRCURVE · MARKET PULSE · 29 SEP 2026 · Data: Financial Modeling Prep; credit spreads ICE BofA via the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Figures reference the Monday 28 September 2026 session; credit spreads are current to 25 September. Not investment advice. For informational use only.