Global Market Pulse — Thursday, Oct 01, 2026

Faircurve Research

Global Cross-Asset Daily

Core consumer prices rose less than expected in August, yet long-term Treasury yields closed at their highest levels of the year. The Fed’s preferred core measure rose 0.2% on the month against 0.3% expected. Spending, hiring and Chicago factory data beat forecasts. The ten-year yield rose 3 basis points to 5.29%. The S&P 500 fell 0.25% to 7,651.54 and the Nasdaq rose 0.24%. The third quarter ended with the Nasdaq up 2.47% and the Russell 2000 down 7.52%.

§ 01 — Equities · United States

The S&P 500 closed at the low of the day, 0.92% under its high. At that high it had been 0.68% above Tuesday’s close. The Dow Jones lost 0.86% and the Russell 2000 0.39%, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.24%. The volatility index rose 0.30 points to 16.34. In September the Nasdaq gained 1.86%, the S&P 500 lost 0.45%, the Dow 4.29% and the Russell 2000 5.40%.

§ 02 — S&P 500 Sector Map

Wednesday 30 Sep · sorted best to worst (1D)

Technology rose 0.64% and was the only one of the eleven sectors to gain. Consumer staples fell most, 1.53%, then health care 1.35% and industrials 1.27%. Energy was little changed, down 0.06%, as crude rose. Over five sessions technology is also the only sector higher. For the year energy leads at 37.55% and consumer discretionary is last, 8.85% lower.

Full table · sorted by YTD

§ 03 — Equities · Global

Global rows reference Wednesday 30 September closes from FMP end-of-day data. One-day moves compare with each market’s previous session and one-week moves with the close five local sessions earlier. For London, Frankfurt, Paris, Hong Kong and Singapore that is Wednesday 23 September. Tokyo was shut from 21 to 23 September, so the Nikkei 225 week compares with Friday 18 September. Seoul was shut on 24 and 25 September and Taipei on 25 and 28 September, so the KOSPI and TAIEX weeks compare with Monday 21 September. Shanghai was shut on 25 September and compares with Tuesday 22 September. Shanghai is shut from today for the National Day holiday. Year-to-date compares with each market’s last 2025 close (30 December for the STOXX 600).

Tokyo rose 1.94% while Europe fell, Frankfurt most at 1.40% on the day German inflation rose to 3.3%, above the 3.2% expected. Paris lost 0.89% and the STOXX 600 0.50%. Shanghai gained 0.31% as China’s official non-manufacturing survey rose to 50.2. Taipei rose 0.65% and Hong Kong 0.37%. Seoul fell 0.48% and Singapore 0.68%. Shanghai is shut from today for the National Day holiday.

§ 04 — US Treasuries

3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 6M 2Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y

Yields of one year and under fell while those of three years and longer rose. The three-month bill fell 5 basis points to 4.20% and the two-year 1 to 4.88%. The five-year rose 3 to 5.09% and the thirty-year 5 to 5.64%. The gap between two-year and ten-year yields widened to 41 basis points from 37, and between two-year and thirty-year yields to 76 from 70. Short yields still rise with maturity, so investors still price further rate rises. Over the third quarter the five-year rose 90 basis points, more than any other maturity.

§ 05 — Credit Spreads

High-yield spreads widened for a sixth straight session on Tuesday, to 308 basis points. That is 40 wider than on 22 September. The CCC tier, the lowest-rated companies, widened 11 to 1,157 and sits 849 above broad high yield, against 604 at the end of 2025. Investment grade widened 1 to 84, 7 wider on the week. These series run to Tuesday 29 September.

The four ICE BofA option-adjusted spread series (investment grade BAMLC0A0CM, BBB BAMLC0A4CBBB, high yield BAMLH0A0HYM2, CCC & Lower BAMLH0A3HYC) are published by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis with a delay of one business day. The latest observation this morning is Tuesday 29 September, so this block does not include the Wednesday 30 September session the rest of the letter covers. One-day changes compare with 28 September, one-week changes with 22 September and year-to-date with 31 December 2025. Levels are converted from percentage points to basis points. Daily high yield readings: 268 on 22 September, then 273, 280, 293, 302 and 308 on 23 to 29 September. CCC & Lower: 1,075 on 22 September, then 1,093, 1,112, 1,128, 1,146 and 1,157. Investment grade: 77 on 22 and 23 September, then 79, 81, 83 and 84. Year-end 2025: high yield 281, CCC & Lower 885.

§ 06 — Digital Assets

Bitcoin slipped 0.10% to US$83,556.14 and is 4.51% lower this year, while the Nasdaq is 15.57% higher. Ether rose 0.27% and solana fell 0.92%. Over five sessions solana is 2.64% higher and bitcoin 0.97% lower.

Levels are FMP end-of-day closes for the UTC day ended Wednesday 30 September. Crypto trades every day, so the one-day change compares with Tuesday 29 September and the one-week change with Wednesday 23 September, the same window as the share tables. FMP has revised Tuesday’s closes slightly since yesterday’s letter (bitcoin 83,638.42, ether 2,677.06). Year-to-date compares with the 31 December 2025 close. Bitcoin’s link to shares reflects the historical daily-return pattern, closest to the Nasdaq at about 0.5 and loosest to the Dow at about 0.4.

§ 07 — Metals & Energy

American crude rose 1.16% to US$90.42 and Brent 1.94% to US$98.03. US crude stocks rose 0.92 million barrels in the week, against a forecast fall. The Brent premium over American crude widened to US$7.61 from US$6.78. Gold rose 0.17% to US$4,186.70 and silver fell 0.96%, lifting the gold-to-silver price ratio to 69.1. Copper rose 0.27%.

Commodity rows are Wednesday 30 September settlements from FMP end-of-day data. One-day changes compare with Tuesday 29 September, one-week changes with Wednesday 23 September and year-to-date with the last 2025 settlement. The FMP Brent series moved to a later delivery month on Tuesday 29 September, so its one-day change is like for like but its one-week fall of 4.90% includes that contract change. The Brent premium over American crude is the difference between the two settlement prices: US$7.61 on Wednesday and US$6.78 on Tuesday. Silver settled at 60.566, copper at 6.6215 and natural gas at 3.026. All three are shown rounded.

§ 08 — Economic Calendar

US release times are Eastern. Other rows carry their local time zone. Consensus and prior figures are FMP-sourced as of this morning. Japan’s Tankan was released at 08:50 Tokyo time today: large manufacturers 24, against 25 expected and 22 prior. Wednesday’s US results: core PCE prices rose 0.2% on the month against 0.3% expected, and 3.0% on the year against 3.3% expected. Personal spending rose 0.9% (0.8% expected). ADP private payrolls 90K (70K expected). Chicago purchasing managers 58.8 (51.2 expected). Second-quarter growth was revised to 2.2% annualised (1.5% expected). Germany’s September inflation was 3.3% (3.2% expected, 2.9% prior).

Friday brings September payrolls, expected at 90K from 162K, and the euro-area flash inflation estimate, expected at 3.6% from 3.2%. The ISM manufacturing survey is due today, expected at 55.0. Japan’s large manufacturers’ survey came in at 24 this morning, against 25 expected. Fed minutes follow on Wednesday 7 October.

§ 09 — Macro Themes

1 · Fed officials differ on the path to year-end. After New York Fed President John Williams said the Fed has time, the market-implied chance of an October rate rise fell below 50%. Two Fed governors described a different path.

2 · AI fundraising has doubled. Money raised through bonds and shares by the largest cloud companies, data-centre vehicles and newer AI cloud providers reached US$346bn so far this year, against US$172bn in all of 2025, a Barclays note shows. Part of it is new corporate bond supply.

3 · South Korea is offering US energy projects in return for tariff exemptions. President Trump announced a US$54bn South Korean investment in an Alaska gas export project. It is part of a US$350bn Korean package designed to secure exemptions from US import tariffs.

4 · The Fed’s inspector general found no grounds for a criminal referral. Its report on the headquarters renovation found management failures behind the cost overruns. The case had kept Jerome Powell at the Fed after his term as chair ended.

5 · Mortgage rates are rising with Treasury yields. The average 30-year rate in the Mortgage Bankers Association survey rose to 7.30% from 7.12%, and applications fell 6% in the week.

§ 10 — Analysis & Nuances

Over the past week the thirty-year rose 24 basis points and the two-year 3. Stronger US growth would normally lift the two-year too, through expectations of Fed rate rises. It barely moved, and the Atlanta Fed’s third-quarter growth estimate fell to 3.7% from 5.0%. Yesterday’s test favoured weak Treasury demand over AI-driven inflation, since core prices rose 0.2% and long yields still rose. Faircurve reads a wider cause: a German ten-year sale paid 3.58% against 3.39% last time, on the day German inflation beat forecasts.

Two calls for Friday 2 October test this reading. The thirty-year closes at or above 5.66%, 2 basis points over Wednesday’s close, even if payrolls are below 90K. The two-year to thirty-year gap closes at 80 basis points or wider, from 76. Payrolls above 90K that lift the two-year more than the thirty-year would point to US growth instead. Earlier calls due Friday: the gap is 2 above its 74 target. The crude call is missing on both legs so far, crude at US$90.42 against US$87 and the ten-year at 5.29% against 5.30%. High yield is 2 short of 310. The 29 September call for a two-year at 5.00% is 12 short.

FAIRCURVE · MARKET PULSE · 01 OCT 2026 · Data: Financial Modeling Prep; credit spreads ICE BofA via the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Figures reference the Wednesday 30 September 2026 session; credit spreads are current to 29 September. Not investment advice. For informational use only.