Global Market Pulse — Friday, Oct 02, 2026

Faircurve Research

Global Cross-Asset Daily

Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said officials may need more time before raising rates again, and short Treasury yields fell even as oil and factory input prices rose. The two-year fell 10 basis points to 4.78% and the thirty-year 3 to 5.61%. Hedge funds unwinding popular trades added to the fall. The S&P 500 rose 0.19% to 7,666.45, ending three days of losses. European shares fell, the FTSE 100 by 1.68%.

§ 01 — Equities · United States

US shares recovered from a fall as Treasury yields came off their highs. The S&P 500 fell as much as 0.45%, to 7,616.78, then closed 0.65% above that low. The Dow Jones and the Nasdaq Composite each rose 0.04% and the Russell 2000 0.35%. The volatility index rose 0.05 points to 16.39. The S&P 500 sits 1.92% under its twelve-month high of 7,816.70.

§ 02 — S&P 500 Sector Map

Thursday 1 Oct · sorted best to worst (1D)

Energy rose 1.95% with crude and led the eleven sectors, while health care fell most, 1.32%. Five sectors rose and six fell. Technology gained 1.05%, industrials 0.99% and utilities 0.61%. Communications lost 0.93%. Over five sessions only technology, utilities and energy are higher. Energy’s 40.24% gain this year leads technology’s 37.40%, and consumer discretionary is last at 8.88% lower.

Full table · sorted by YTD

§ 03 — Equities · Global

Global rows reference Thursday 1 October closes from FMP end-of-day data. One-day moves compare with each market’s previous session and one-week moves with the close five local sessions earlier: Thursday 24 September for London, Frankfurt, Paris, Tokyo and Singapore. Seoul was shut on 24 and 25 September and Taipei on 25 and 28 September, so the KOSPI and TAIEX weeks compare with Tuesday 22 September. *Hong Kong and Shanghai were shut on 1 October for the National Day holiday, so their rows repeat the Wednesday 30 September session. Hong Kong reopens today; Shanghai stays shut through next week. Year-to-date compares with each market’s last 2025 close (30 December for the STOXX 600).

London and Paris fell 1.68% and 1.62% on a day British and French government bond yields rose, while Frankfurt lost only 0.42%. The STOXX 600 fell 1.30%. Tokyo rose 3.30%, taking its five-session gain to 5.25%. Seoul gained 1.95% on the day Korean September exports rose 83.5% on the year, against 61.7% expected. Taipei rose 0.86% and Singapore slipped 0.14%. Hong Kong and Shanghai were shut for the National Day holiday.

§ 04 — US Treasuries

3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 6M 2Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y

Treasury yields fell at every maturity from three months to thirty years after Jefferson’s comment, the one-year and two-year most. Those two fell 10 basis points each, to 4.44% and 4.78%, while the three-month bill fell 3 to 4.17%. The ten-year fell 5 to 5.24% and the thirty-year 3 to 5.61%. The gap between two-year and ten-year yields widened to 46 basis points from 41, and between two-year and thirty-year yields to 83 from 76. The two-year still yields 61 more than the three-month bill, against 68 on Wednesday: markets expect further Fed rises, but fewer.

§ 05 — Credit Spreads

High-yield spreads widened for a seventh straight session on Wednesday, to 312 basis points, the day long Treasury yields closed at their 2026 highs. Bonds rated CCC and lower widened 22 to 1,179, so their gap over broad high yield grew to 867 from 849. Investment grade was unchanged at 84 and BBB widened 1 to 103. These series run to 30 September and do not yet show Thursday’s fall in yields.

The four ICE BofA option-adjusted spread series (investment grade BAMLC0A0CM, BBB BAMLC0A4CBBB, high yield BAMLH0A0HYM2, CCC & Lower BAMLH0A3HYC) are published by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis with a delay of one business day. The latest observation this morning is Wednesday 30 September, so this block does not include the Thursday 1 October session the rest of the letter covers. One-day changes compare with 29 September, one-week changes with 23 September and year-to-date with 31 December 2025. Levels are converted from percentage points to basis points. Daily high yield readings: 266 on 21 September, then 268, 273, 280, 293, 302, 308 and 312 on 22 to 30 September. CCC & Lower: 1,093 on 23 September, then 1,112, 1,128, 1,146, 1,157 and 1,179. Investment grade: 77 on 23 September, then 79, 81, 83, 84 and 84. Year-end 2025: high yield 281, CCC & Lower 885.

§ 06 — Digital Assets

Bitcoin rose 1.55% to US$84,848.73 on the day Treasury yields fell. Ether gained 0.76% and solana 0.25%. Over five sessions bitcoin is 0.55% higher and ether 0.63%. The Securities and Exchange Commission proposed rules on how investment advisers hold crypto for clients.

Levels are FMP end-of-day closes for the UTC day ended Thursday 1 October. Crypto trades every day, so the one-day change compares with Wednesday 30 September and the one-week change with Thursday 24 September, the same window as the share tables. FMP has revised Wednesday’s closes slightly since yesterday’s letter (ether 2,683.93, solana 118.06). FMP’s 1 October solana row carried a placeholder volume; the close is shown as reported. Year-to-date compares with the 31 December 2025 close. Bitcoin’s link to shares reflects the historical daily-return pattern, closest to the Nasdaq at about 0.5 and loosest to the Dow at about 0.4.

§ 07 — Metals & Energy

Brent rose 4.37% to US$102.31 and American crude 2.71% to US$92.87, although tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz were back to pre-war levels this week, Kpler data show. Refined fuel is the tight market: Russia said it will not export diesel until sanctions are lifted. The Brent premium over American crude widened to US$9.44 from US$7.61. Gold rose 0.37% to US$4,202.30 and silver 1.01%, while copper fell 1.26%.

Commodity rows are Thursday 1 October settlements from FMP end-of-day data, not this morning’s live quotes. One-day changes compare with Wednesday 30 September, one-week changes with Thursday 24 September and year-to-date with the last 2025 settlement. The FMP Brent series moved to a later delivery month on Tuesday 29 September, so its one-day change is like for like but its one-week fall of 4.02% includes that contract change. The Brent premium over American crude is the difference between the two settlement prices: US$9.44 on Thursday and US$7.61 on Wednesday. Silver settled at 61.175, copper at 6.538 and natural gas at 2.967. All three are shown rounded.

§ 08 — Economic Calendar

US release times are Eastern. Other rows carry their local time zone. Consensus and prior figures are FMP-sourced as of this morning. Thursday’s US results: the ISM manufacturing index 54.5 against 55.0 expected and 54.6 prior; its prices paid gauge 77.9 against 72.3 expected and 71.1 prior; new orders 55.3 (53.9 expected); employment 52.7 (51.5 expected). Initial jobless claims 197K (200K expected). Construction spending rose 0.9% in August (0.0% expected). Euro-area unemployment held at 6.4%. South Korea’s September exports rose 83.5% on the year (61.7% expected). Japan’s August unemployment rate, out this morning, was 2.5% against 2.4% expected.

Euro-area flash inflation comes first today, expected at 3.6% from 3.2%, then September payrolls, expected at 90K from 162K. Unemployment is expected to hold at 4.1%. OPEC meets on Sunday, the services survey of the Institute for Supply Management is due Monday and Fed minutes on Wednesday 7 October.

§ 09 — Macro Themes

1 · Three regional Fed presidents put inflation first. Tom Barkin, Susan Collins and Jeffrey Schmid backed September’s rate rise and said inflation should take priority with the job market stable. Governor Lisa Cook named inflation from the AI build-out as a top risk for 2027.

2 · Long-term bond yields rose across Europe. The UK thirty-year government bond yield rose briefly above 6%. Italian and Greek yields also rose sharply, and France plans spending cuts of tens of billions of euros next year to reassure lenders.

3 · Fuel exporters are holding supply back. Chinese refiners reportedly halted October fuel exports. The White House reportedly asked Germany and France to release diesel stocks, and European governments discussed doing so.

4 · Higher mortgage rates are holding back homebuilding. The Freddie Mac 30-year rate rose to 7.28% from 7.03% in a week. Construction spending still rose 0.9% in August, on offices and power plants.

5 · Micron’s strong forecast came with a cost warning. The chipmaker expects strong sales this quarter on AI demand but said rising pay would reduce its profit margins.

§ 10 — Analysis & Nuances

Price pressure rose on Thursday while the expected path of Fed rates fell. Apart from the factory survey’s headline, which missed slightly at 54.5, the data beat forecasts: new orders 55.3 against 53.9, employment 52.7 against 51.5, jobless claims 197K against 200K. The survey’s prices gauge rose 6.8 points to 77.9. The fall in yields was also not global, since British and French yields rose. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said after the close that rates need to rise another half percentage point, so Thursday’s yields do not reflect her view.

Two calls for Thursday 8 October. The two-year closes at or above 4.85%, 7 basis points over Thursday and less than its fall on Thursday alone. The gap between two-year and thirty-year yields narrows to 78 or less, from 83, as short yields rise faster. This reverses the earlier call for a gap of 80 or wider. Payrolls below 90K with wages up 0.3% or less would count against both. Of the calls due at today’s close, four on the gap and two on high yield are on track. Six are behind, including the thirty-year at 5.61% against 5.66% and crude at US$92.87 against US$87.

FAIRCURVE · MARKET PULSE · 02 OCT 2026 · Data: Financial Modeling Prep; credit spreads ICE BofA via the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Figures reference the Thursday 1 October 2026 session; credit spreads are current to 30 September. Not investment advice. For informational use only.