Global Market Pulse — Monday, Oct 05, 2026

Faircurve Research

Global Cross-Asset Daily

US employers added far fewer jobs than expected in September, which lowered the odds of another Fed rate rise this month and lifted shares. Payrolls rose 29K against 90K forecast, and hourly pay grew 0.1% in the month. The S&P 500 rose 0.73% to 7,722.72 and the Nasdaq Composite 1.19%. Yields from one year to thirty years rose anyway, the two-year by 5 basis points to 4.83%. American crude fell 1.90% after the G7 agreed to release up to 100 million barrels of oil and fuel.

§ 01 — Equities · United States

The S&P 500 opened higher on the jobs report and never traded below Thursday’s close. Its low of 7,700.51 was 0.44% above it. The index ended 1.20% below its twelve-month high of 7,816.70. The Russell 2000 rose 0.94% and the Dow 0.49%, and a fund of chip stocks gained 2.07%. The volatility index fell 1.08 points to 15.31. Over the week the S&P 500 lost 0.27% and the Nasdaq gained 0.45%.

§ 02 — S&P 500 Sector Map

Friday 2 Oct · sorted best to worst (1D)

Ten of eleven sectors rose, with consumer discretionary up most at 1.13%. Technology gained 1.01% and industrials 0.78%. Energy rose only 0.19% on a day crude fell, and health care slipped 0.01%. Over the week only technology, energy and utilities gained. Health care lost 2.65% and financials 2.46%.

Full table · sorted by YTD

§ 03 — Equities · Global

Global rows reference Friday 2 October closes from FMP end-of-day data. One-day moves compare with each market’s previous session and one-week moves with the close five local sessions earlier: Friday 25 September for London, Frankfurt, Paris, Tokyo and Singapore. Seoul was shut on 24 and 25 September and Taipei on 25 and 28 September, so the KOSPI and TAIEX weeks compare with Wednesday 23 September. Hong Kong was shut on 1 October, so its one-day move compares with 30 September and its week with 24 September. *Shanghai is shut from 1 to 8 October for the Golden Week holiday, so its row repeats the Wednesday 30 September session. FMP’s 2 October rows for Tokyo, Taipei and Singapore carry no volume; the closes are shown as reported. Year-to-date compares with each market’s last 2025 close (30 December for the STOXX 600).

European shares rose on Friday but fell on the week. The DAX gained 1.16% and the STOXX 600 0.75%, leaving them 1.08% and 1.14% lower over five sessions. The CAC 40 is down 3.10% this year. Hong Kong fell 2.60% on reopening after its holiday. Tokyo lost 0.94%, while Seoul added 0.46% and Taipei 0.25%. Shanghai is shut for Golden Week.

§ 04 — US Treasuries

3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 6M 2Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y

Over the week, yields from three months to one year fell while yields from two years out rose. The three-month bill fell 5 basis points, the six-month 6 and the one-year 4. The two-year rose 2 to 4.83%, the ten-year 11 to 5.28% and the thirty-year 14 to 5.63%. On Friday every maturity from one year to thirty years rose, the two-year to seven-year most, 5 each. The two-year now yields 37 basis points more than the one-year, from 31 a week ago. Faircurve reads part of that gap as extra Fed rises expected in the second year.

§ 05 — Credit Spreads

High-yield spreads, the extra yield investors demand to hold lower-rated company bonds instead of Treasuries, widened for an eighth straight session on Thursday, by 12 basis points to 324. Bonds rated CCC and lower widened 36 to 1,215, taking their gap over broad high yield to 891 from 867. Investment-grade spreads widened 2 to 86 and BBB spreads 3 to 106. These readings end on 1 October, before Friday’s gain in shares.

The four ICE BofA option-adjusted spread series (investment grade BAMLC0A0CM, BBB BAMLC0A4CBBB, high yield BAMLH0A0HYM2, CCC & Lower BAMLH0A3HYC) are published by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis with a delay of one business day. The latest observation this morning is Thursday 1 October, so this block does not include the Friday 2 October session the rest of the letter covers. One-day changes compare with 30 September, one-week changes with 24 September and year-to-date with 31 December 2025. Levels are converted from percentage points to basis points. Daily high yield readings: 266 on 21 September, then 268, 273, 280, 293, 302, 308, 312 and 324 on 22 September to 1 October. CCC & Lower: 1,093 on 23 September, then 1,112, 1,128, 1,146, 1,157, 1,179 and 1,215. Year-end 2025: high yield 281, CCC & Lower 885.

§ 06 — Digital Assets

Bitcoin slipped 0.41% to US$84,504.88 on a day the Nasdaq rose 1.19%. Ether fell 1.38% and solana rose 0.20%. Over the week bitcoin is 0.49% higher and solana 2.87% lower. Bitcoin gained over the weekend to close Sunday at US$86,463.78.

Levels are FMP end-of-day closes for the UTC day ended Friday 2 October, so the letter compares crypto with shares over the same calendar window. The one-day change compares with Thursday 1 October and the one-week change with Friday 25 September. FMP has revised Thursday’s closes slightly since the last letter (ether 2,705.50, solana 118.38). Crypto traded through the weekend and those moves are not in this table: bitcoin closed the UTC day on Sunday 4 October at US$86,463.78, 2.32% above the Friday level shown. Year-to-date compares with the 31 December 2025 close. Bitcoin’s link to shares reflects the historical daily-return pattern, closest to the Nasdaq at about 0.5 and loosest to the Dow at about 0.4.

§ 07 — Metals & Energy

The G7 fuel release lowered American crude, but Brent settled almost unchanged. American crude ended at US$91.11 and Brent 0.06% lower at US$102.25, so the Brent premium widened to US$11.14 from US$9.44. Gold fell 0.95% and silver 1.24% while Treasury yields rose. Natural gas gained 2.29% and copper 0.17%.

Commodity rows are Friday 2 October settlements from FMP end-of-day data, not this morning’s live quotes. One-day changes compare with Thursday 1 October, one-week changes with Friday 25 September and year-to-date with the last 2025 settlement. The FMP Brent series moved to a later delivery month on Tuesday 29 September, so its one-day change is like for like but its one-week fall of 1.98% includes that contract change. The Brent premium over American crude is the difference between the two settlement prices: US$11.14 on Friday, US$9.44 on Thursday and US$11.91 a week earlier. Silver settled at 60.415, copper at 6.549 and natural gas at 3.035. All three are shown rounded.

§ 08 — Economic Calendar

US release times are Eastern. Other rows carry their local time zone. Consensus and prior figures are FMP-sourced as of this morning; for the two company results, prior is the second-quarter actual. Friday’s US results: non-farm payrolls rose 29K against 90K expected, with August revised to 133K from 162K; private payrolls 46K (85K expected); government payrolls fell 17K; the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% (4.1% expected); average hourly earnings rose 0.1% in the month (0.3% expected) and 3.0% on the year (3.2% expected); the participation rate rose to 61.8%. Factory orders rose 0.1% in August, as expected. Euro-area flash inflation was 3.8% in September against 3.6% expected and 3.2% in August; core inflation was 2.5%, as expected, from 2.4%.

Fed minutes on Wednesday will show how many officials backed further rises. The services survey of the Institute for Supply Management is due today, expected at 55.7 from 55.4. Jobless claims follow on Thursday, expected at 195K, when PepsiCo also reports. Delta Air Lines reports on Friday. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda speaks on Tuesday.

§ 09 — Macro Themes

1 · Fewer hires, few layoffs. Private employers added 46K jobs against 85K expected, and government payrolls fell 17K. August was revised down to 133K. Unemployment rose to 4.2%, while weekly jobless claims stayed low at 197K.

2 · North Sea supply at risk. Workers at Apache backed a strike that could disrupt the Forties pipeline in the North Sea.

3 · Euro-area inflation beat forecasts. Prices rose 0.6% in September alone, taking the annual rate to 3.8% from 3.2%, above the 3.6% forecast. Core inflation, which leaves out energy and food, rose only to 2.5%.

4 · New attacks in the Gulf. Over the weekend Houthi forces in Yemen attacked Saudi Aramco sites and more tankers were struck. Brent futures traded at US$103.06 on Sunday.

5 · A retailer files for bankruptcy. Pool supplies chain Leslie’s filed for Chapter 11 protection to cut about US$685 million of debt and close 76 stores.

§ 10 — Analysis & Nuances

Investors expect the next Fed rise later, but they still expect it. In the week before the report, New York Fed President John Williams said September’s rise gives the Fed time to assess the data, which fits a pause rather than an end. The two-year yields 64 basis points more than the three-month bill, from 57 a week ago. A pause helps shares, but rates stay high: the ten-year is 110 basis points higher this year. A fund that holds every S&P 500 company in equal amounts fell 5.85% in seven weekly falls, against 0.81% for the index. Faircurve reads this, with the run of wider high-yield spreads, as higher rates hurting the average company more than the largest ones. The third call tests whether the average company keeps doing worse.

Three calls for this week. On Thursday 8 October, the gap between one-year and two-year yields is 32 basis points or more, against 37 now. Minutes showing most officials oppose another rise would break it. On Thursday, the Brent premium over American crude is above US$10, against US$11.14, because Europe’s part of the release is diesel while crude supply from the Gulf and the North Sea stays at risk. In the week to Friday 9 October, the equal-weight fund again does worse than the index, as it did by 0.38 percentage points last week. Last week’s calls: the two-year is 2 basis points short of 4.85%, and the two-year to thirty-year gap is 2 above the 78 target.

FAIRCURVE · MARKET PULSE · 05 OCT 2026 · Data: Financial Modeling Prep; credit spreads ICE BofA via the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Figures reference the Friday 2 October 2026 session; credit spreads are current to 1 October. Not investment advice. For informational use only.