Global Market Pulse — Tuesday, Oct 06, 2026

Faircurve Research

Global Cross-Asset Daily

Large technology companies lifted US shares on Monday even as long-term Treasury yields rose after a survey showed service-sector prices climbing faster than expected. The Nasdaq Composite gained 1.05% to 27,477.31, its highest close in twelve months of data, and the S&P 500 rose 0.66%. The ten-year yield rose 3 basis points to 5.31%. In Paris the CAC 40 fell 0.80% as France’s borrowing costs rose against Germany’s. Brent crude settled 1.89% lower at US$100.32 after Saudi Aramco cut its prices for Asian buyers.

§ 01 — Equities · United States

The Nasdaq closed 0.86% above 27,244.28, its best close of the past twelve months, set on 22 September. The S&P 500 ended 0.55% below its twelve-month high of 7,816.70. The Dow rose only 0.18% and is 0.41% lower over five sessions, while the Nasdaq is 2.45% higher. The Russell 2000 gained 0.50%. The volatility index rose 0.21 points to 15.52.

§ 02 — S&P 500 Sector Map

Monday 5 Oct · sorted best to worst (1D)

Ten of eleven sectors rose, and real estate was the only one to fall, by 0.34%. Materials led with 1.31%. Communications, home to Alphabet and Meta, gained 1.17%, twice the 0.56% rise in technology. Energy rose 1.00% on a day crude fell. Over five sessions technology leads with 3.29% and health care trails, down 2.27%.

Full table · sorted by YTD

§ 03 — Equities · Global

Global rows reference Monday 5 October closes from FMP end-of-day data. One-day moves compare with each market’s previous session and one-week moves with the close five local sessions earlier: Monday 28 September for London, Frankfurt, Paris, Tokyo and Singapore. Taipei was shut on 25 and 28 September, so the TAIEX week compares with Thursday 24 September. Hong Kong was shut on 1 October, so its week compares with Friday 25 September. *Seoul was shut on Monday 5 October for a public holiday, so the KOSPI row repeats the Friday 2 October session. *Shanghai is shut from 1 to 8 October for the Golden Week holiday, so its row repeats the Wednesday 30 September session. FMP’s 5 October rows for the STOXX 600, FTSE 100 and CAC 40 carry no volume; the closes are shown as reported. Year-to-date compares with each market’s last 2025 close (30 December for the STOXX 600). The euro closed Monday at US$1.1223 (FMP), 0.26% lower on the day and 4.45% lower this year.

The CAC 40 fell while other major European indices rose. It lost 0.80% and is 3.03% lower over five sessions, while the DAX gained 0.17% and the FTSE 100 0.34%. In Asia, the TAIEX rose 2.55% to 49,712.04, its highest close in more than a year of data, and the Nikkei gained 2.40%. Hong Kong added 0.28%. Seoul and Shanghai were shut.

§ 04 — US Treasuries

3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 6M 2Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y

Over five sessions, yields from three months to three years fell while yields from seven years out rose. The two-year fell 14 basis points to 1 October, before the jobs report, then rose 6, for a net fall of 8 to 4.84%. The five-year was unchanged at 5.06%. The ten-year rose 7 to 5.31% and the thirty-year 10 to 5.66%. The two-year to ten-year gap widened to 47 basis points from 32, and the two-year to thirty-year gap to 82 from 64.

§ 05 — Credit Spreads

High-yield spreads, the extra yield investors demand to hold lower-rated company bonds instead of Treasuries, narrowed 14 basis points to 310 on Friday, ending eight straight widenings. They remain 17 wider than a week earlier. Bonds rated CCC and lower narrowed 13 to 1,202, leaving their gap over broad high yield at 892. Spreads on top-rated investment-grade bonds narrowed 1 to 85. These readings end on 2 October and do not cover Monday.

The four ICE BofA option-adjusted spread series (investment grade BAMLC0A0CM, BBB BAMLC0A4CBBB, high yield BAMLH0A0HYM2, CCC & Lower BAMLH0A3HYC) are published by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis with a delay of one business day or more. The latest observation this morning is Friday 2 October, so this block does not include the Monday 5 October session the rest of the letter covers. One-day changes compare with 1 October, one-week changes with 25 September and year-to-date with 31 December 2025. Levels are converted from percentage points to basis points. Daily high yield readings: 266 on 21 September, then 268, 273, 280, 293, 302, 308, 312 and 324 on 22 September to 1 October, and 310 on 2 October. CCC & Lower: 1,128 on 25 September, then 1,146, 1,157, 1,179, 1,215 and 1,202. Year-end 2025: high yield 281, CCC & Lower 885.

§ 06 — Digital Assets

Bitcoin fell 1.10% to US$85,551.26 while US shares rose. Ether lost 0.63% and solana 1.25%. Over five sessions bitcoin is 2.51% higher. It remains 2.22% lower this year, while the Nasdaq is 18.22% higher.

Levels are FMP end-of-day closes for the UTC day ended Monday 5 October. Crypto trades every day, so the one-day change compares with Sunday 4 October and the one-week change with Monday 28 September, the same window as the share tables. Year-to-date compares with the 31 December 2025 close. Bitcoin’s link to shares reflects the historical daily-return pattern, closest to the Nasdaq at about 0.5 and loosest to the Dow at about 0.4.

§ 07 — Metals & Energy

Crude fell for a second session while energy shares rose for a second session. American crude settled 1.84% lower at US$89.43, and the Brent premium over it narrowed to US$10.89. Over Friday and Monday crude lost 3.70% while the energy fund gained 1.20%. Copper rose 1.40% and silver 1.46%, while gold slipped 0.13%. Natural gas gained 1.02%.

Commodity rows are Monday 5 October settlements from FMP end-of-day data, not this morning’s live quotes. One-day changes compare with Friday 2 October, one-week changes with Monday 28 September and year-to-date with the last 2025 settlement. The FMP Brent series moved to a later delivery month on Tuesday 29 September, so its one-day change is like for like but its one-week fall of 4.71% includes that contract change. The Brent premium over American crude is the difference between the two settlement prices: US$10.89 on Monday, US$11.14 on Friday and US$12.68 a week earlier. Copper settled at 6.641 and natural gas at 3.066; both are shown rounded.

§ 08 — Economic Calendar

US release times are Eastern. Other rows carry their local time zone. Consensus and prior figures are FMP-sourced as of this morning; for the two company results, prior is the second-quarter actual. Monday’s US services survey from the Institute for Supply Management came in at 54.9 against 55.0 expected (FMP economics calendar actual). Its prices index was 74.0 (72.9 expected, 72.6 prior), employment 50.1 (47.8 prior) and business activity 56.5 (61.7 prior). Fed Governors Bowman and Waller and Dallas Fed President Logan also speak this week.

Wednesday’s Fed minutes are this week’s main test for short-term yields. New York Fed President John Williams speaks today, and August trade data are expected to show a US$102.0 billion deficit. Jobless claims on Thursday are expected at 200K. On Friday the Michigan survey is expected to put one-year inflation expectations at 4.7%, from 4.6%.

§ 09 — Macro Themes

1 · Service firms report higher costs. The services survey of the Institute for Supply Management fell to 54.9, close to the 55.0 expected, while its prices index rose to 74.0 from 72.6. The employment index rose to 50.1 from 47.8.

2 · France pays more to borrow. The extra yield France pays over Germany widened sharply. The euro fell 0.26% to US$1.1223 and is 4.45% lower this year. Spain’s prime minister called an early election.

3 · Gulf oil exports recover. Saudi Aramco cut its November price for Arab Light crude to Asia by US$3 a barrel, to US$5 below the regional benchmark. Its chief executive warned that refilling oil inventories could take two years.

4 · AI drives Asian exports. The World Bank raised its 2026 growth forecast for East Asia and the Pacific to 4.5%. It said AI-related goods drove more than half of export growth in most of the region’s economies.

5 · A White House order on diesel. President Trump signed an order on Monday widening access to tax-exempt diesel, as truckers and farmers face higher fuel prices.

§ 10 — Analysis & Nuances

Over the last three sessions, Fed and jobs news moved short yields most, and price news moved long yields most. On Thursday 1 October Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said officials may need more time before raising rates again, and some large funds closed popular trades. The two-year fell 10 basis points and the thirty-year 3. On Friday, jobs report day, the two-year rose 5 and the thirty-year 2. On Monday the services prices index came in at 74.0 against 72.9 expected, and the ten-year rose 3 while the two-year rose 1. Faircurve reads long yields as tracking inflation risk more than the Fed’s next move.

Two calls for this week. Through Friday 9 October, the ten-year stays at 5.24% or higher, 7 basis points below today. Fed minutes that lower short yields would test it. From Monday’s close to Friday, the CAC 40 trails the DAX by 0.5 percentage points or more, after trailing it by 0.97 on Monday. A narrowing of France’s borrowing gap over Germany would break it. Last edition’s calls: the one-year to two-year gap is 37 against a 32 floor, the Brent premium is US$10.89 against US$10, and the equal-weight fund matched the S&P 500 on Monday at 0.66%.

FAIRCURVE · MARKET PULSE · 06 OCT 2026 · Data: Financial Modeling Prep; credit spreads ICE BofA via the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Figures reference the Monday 5 October 2026 session; credit spreads are current to 2 October. Not investment advice. For informational use only.