Global Market Pulse — Monday, Oct 12, 2026

Faircurve Research

Global Cross-Asset Daily

US shares rose on Friday as fear of a US strike on Iran eased, after President Trump said there would be none before the November elections. Technology shares also recovered part of Thursday’s loss. The S&P 500 gained 0.59% to 7,811.54 and 1.15% on the week. Brent still rose 0.42% to US$104.72. The two-year Treasury yield climbed 5 basis points to 4.80%.

§ 01 — Equities · United States

All four indices rose on Friday, and only the Russell 2000 fell on the week. The Dow added 0.83%, the Nasdaq 0.64% and the Russell 2000 0.46%. The Russell 2000 lost 0.91% on the week, its fifth weekly fall in a row. The volatility index fell 0.57 points to 14.84.

§ 02 — S&P 500 Sector Map

Friday 9 Oct · sorted best to worst (1D)

Nine sectors rose and two fell, with real estate first and communications last. Real estate gained 1.86% and health care 1.58%. Communications lost 1.51% after SpaceX bought wireless airwaves: T-Mobile fell 13.27%, AT&T 9.81% and Verizon 8.75%. Utilities led the week with 3.97%. Technology trailed, down 0.52%.

Full table · sorted by YTD

§ 03 — Equities · Global

Global rows reference Friday 9 October closes from FMP end-of-day data. One-day moves compare with each market’s previous session (Thursday 8 October). One-week moves compare with Friday 2 October. *Seoul (Hangul Day) and Taipei (National Day) were shut on Friday 9 October, so their levels are Thursday 8 October closes and their one-day moves are shown as nil. †Shanghai did not trade from 1 to 7 October, so its one-week move compares with 30 September. FMP’s 9 October rows for the Nikkei and the Straits Times carry no volume. The closes are shown as reported and match the index quotes. Year-to-date compares with each market’s last 2025 close. The euro closed Friday at US$1.12015 (FMP), 0.09% lower on the day, 0.45% lower on the week and 4.63% lower this year.

Europe and Hong Kong rose on Friday, while Seoul and Taipei were shut for holidays. The STOXX 600 gained 0.97% and the Hang Seng 1.79%. The Nikkei was flat. On the week the KOSPI lost 5.39% and Singapore’s Straits Times 4.13%, while the TAIEX gained 1.73%.

§ 04 — US Treasuries

3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 6M 2Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y

Yields of two years and longer fell on the week, but the two-year rose most on Friday. The ten-year gained 2 basis points to 5.24% and the thirty-year was unchanged at 5.60%. The gap from two to ten years narrowed 3 to 44 basis points, and from two to thirty years 5 to 80. On the week the two-year fell 3 and the ten-year 4. The bond market is shut today.

§ 05 — Credit Spreads

Spreads on CCC-rated company bonds, the riskiest group, widened for a fourth session in a row through Thursday. The CCC and lower spread rose 23 basis points to 1,252, 37 above a week earlier. High-yield spreads, the extra yield over Treasuries on lower-rated company bonds, widened 6 to 315. Investment-grade spreads, on the safest company bonds, held at 82.

The four ICE BofA option-adjusted spread series (investment grade BAMLC0A0CM, BBB BAMLC0A4CBBB, high yield BAMLH0A0HYM2, CCC & Lower BAMLH0A3HYC) are published by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis with a delay of one business day or more. The latest observation this morning is Thursday 8 October, so this block does not include the Friday 9 October session the rest of the letter covers. One-day changes compare with 7 October, one-week changes with 1 October and year-to-date with 31 December 2025. Levels are converted from percentage points to basis points. Daily high yield readings from 1 October: 324, 310, 312, 303, 309 and 315. CCC & Lower: 1,215, 1,202, 1,211, 1,214, 1,229 and 1,252.

§ 06 — Digital Assets

Bitcoin rose 1.04% to US$82,544.71 on Friday but lost 2.32% on the week. Ether gained 0.50% and solana slipped 0.46%. On the week ether fell 6.85% and solana 8.08%.

Levels are FMP end-of-day closes for the UTC day ended Friday 9 October, matching the share session. The one-day change compares with Thursday 8 October and the one-week change with Friday 2 October. Year-to-date compares with the 31 December 2025 close. Crypto trades every day: bitcoin closed Sunday 11 October at US$83,547.69 (FMP). Bitcoin’s link to shares reflects the historical daily-return pattern, closest to the Nasdaq at about 0.5 and loosest to the Dow at about 0.4.

§ 07 — Metals & Energy

Metals led commodities higher on Friday, and oil edged up. Silver gained 2.73%, copper 1.88% and gold 1.43% to US$4,216.30. American crude rose 0.39% to US$91.85. Brent gained 2.42% on the week. Natural gas added 1.64% and is 6.10% higher on the week.

Commodity rows are Friday 9 October settlements from FMP end-of-day data, not this morning’s live quotes. One-day changes compare with Thursday 8 October, one-week changes with Friday 2 October and year-to-date with the last 2025 settlement. The FMP Brent series moved to a later delivery month on 29 September, so its year-to-date change spans contract changes. The Brent premium over American crude is the difference between the two settlement prices: US$12.87 on Friday, US$12.79 on Thursday and US$11.14 on 2 October. Silver settled at 61.048, copper at 6.692 and natural gas at 3.220. All are shown rounded.

§ 08 — Economic Calendar

US release times are Eastern. Other rows carry their local time zone. Consensus and prior figures are FMP-sourced as of this morning. For the two company results, prior is the second-quarter actual. The US bond market is shut on Monday 12 October. The stock market is open. Friday’s results (FMP economics calendar actuals): Michigan consumer sentiment 46.3 against 47.6 expected and 48.1 prior; current conditions 44.7 from 50.9; one-year inflation expectations 4.7% from 4.6%; five-year 3.5% from 3.4%. Fed speakers this week include Hammack (Monday), Waller and Collins (Tuesday), Bowman (Wednesday) and Hammack again (Thursday).

Wednesday’s US consumer price report is the key release of the week. Economists expect prices 3.7% higher than a year earlier, from 3.4%, and a 0.6% rise in September alone. Retail sales and producer prices follow on Thursday. JPMorgan Chase reports on Tuesday and TSMC on Thursday. China’s price and trade figures and Singapore’s policy decision come on Wednesday.

§ 09 — Macro Themes

1 · Diesel and the Gulf. President Trump said Russia agreed to supply more than 300,000 tons of diesel at once, with diesel prices high before the 3 November elections. Eleven tankers were attacked crossing the Strait of Hormuz in the week to 4 October.

2 · Consumers under strain. The University of Michigan sentiment index fell to 46.3, below the 47.6 expected. Its gauge of current conditions dropped to 44.7 from 50.9. A Fed survey found nearly 20% of families were behind on loan payments in the three years to 2025, from about 12%.

3 · Pressure on the Fed. The White House set up a committee to judge whether President Trump can remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook, with a hearing on 5 November. Cleveland Fed President Hammack said rates are not yet high enough to bring inflation down.

4 · Government borrowing. The federal deficit reached about US$2 trillion in the 2026 fiscal year, the Congressional Budget Office said. Interest on the national debt rose 11% from a year earlier.

5 · Banks open results season. JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo report this week, and all four are expected to show higher revenue than a year ago. Analysts expect JPMorgan to earn US$5.93 a share, against US$7.59 in the second quarter.

§ 10 — Analysis & Nuances

The strike pledge calmed share markets but not inflation worries. The volatility index fell to 14.84, yet Brent held its gain and consumers raised their one-year inflation expectations to 4.7% from 4.6%. The two-year yield, the one most tied to Fed decisions, rose more than any other that day. Faircurve reads this as investors still expecting another Fed rise this year.

The weakness sits with small companies, not with the typical share. An equal-weighted S&P 500 fund rose 1.58% on the week, 0.43 percentage points ahead of the index, while the Russell 2000 fell. The Russell 2000 is 5.67% below its 4 September close, while the S&P 500 is 1.20% above. Faircurve reads this as pressure on companies that depend on borrowing, with CCC spreads wider through Thursday.

Calls. The two-year closed the week at 4.80%, under its 4.84% line, so that call held. The Russell 2000 trailed the S&P 500 by 0.73 percentage points from Tuesday to Friday, so that call held too. The ten-year broke its 5.24% floor at 5.22% on Thursday and closed Friday back at 5.24%. Two calls are holding: the ten-year is 6 basis points under its 5.30% line through Wednesday’s report, and the chip fund at US$603.33 is 3.60% under its US$625.03 line through TSMC’s results on Thursday.

FAIRCURVE · MARKET PULSE · 12 OCT 2026 · Data: Financial Modeling Prep; credit spreads ICE BofA via the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Figures reference the Friday 9 October 2026 session; credit spreads are current to 8 October. Not investment advice. For informational use only.