Global Market Pulse — Tuesday, Oct 13, 2026

Faircurve Research

Global Cross-Asset Daily

Attacks on Saudi Arabia by Yemen’s Houthi forces pushed oil up on Monday, and news of a Chinese memory-chip advance sent chip shares down. Brent rose 1.84% to US$106.65 and Micron fell 3.88%. The S&P 500 ended 0.06% lower at 7,807.24. The US bond market was shut for Columbus Day, so yields have not yet reacted.

§ 01 — Equities · United States

The Dow rose while the Nasdaq and the Russell 2000 fell. The Dow gained 0.38% to 51,850.55. The Nasdaq lost 0.44% to 27,245.90 and the Russell 2000 0.45%. On the week the Dow is up 1.14% and the Russell 2000 down 1.85%. The volatility index rose 0.37 points to 15.21.

§ 02 — S&P 500 Sector Map

Monday 12 Oct · sorted best to worst (1D)

Eight sectors rose and three fell, with energy first and technology last. Energy gained 1.43% and consumer staples 1.17%. Technology lost 1.22%, with the chip fund down 2.05% and Nvidia 1.29%. Over the week staples, utilities and energy each rose more than 4%, and technology fell 2.27%.

Full table · sorted by YTD

§ 03 — Equities · Global

Global rows reference Monday 12 October closes from FMP end-of-day data. One-day moves compare with each market’s previous session and one-week moves with Monday 5 October. *Tokyo was shut on Monday (Sports Day), so the Nikkei shows its Friday 9 October close with a nil one-day move. †FMP carries no 5 October KOSPI session, so its one-week move compares with 2 October. Seoul and Taipei were shut on Friday 9 October, so their one-day moves compare with 8 October. ‡Shanghai’s one-week move compares with 30 September, its last session before the 1 to 7 October holiday. FMP’s 12 October rows for several indices carry no volume. Their closes match the index quotes and are shown as reported. Year-to-date compares with each market’s last 2025 close.

Seoul fell on the memory-chip news while Europe rose. The KOSPI lost 3.65%, with Samsung down 4.39% and SK hynix 4.52%. It is 8.85% below its 2 October close. The FTSE 100 gained 0.99%, the DAX 0.31% and the STOXX 600 0.65%. Hong Kong and Singapore each rose 0.25%, Taipei was flat and Shanghai fell 0.43%. Tokyo was shut.

§ 04 — US Treasuries

3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 6M 2Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y

Treasuries did not trade on Monday, so yields stand at Friday’s levels. The two-year is at 4.80% and the ten-year at 5.24%, 4 and 7 basis points lower than a week earlier. The thirty-year is at 5.60%, 6 lower. This year the two-year has risen 133 basis points, the ten-year 106 and the thirty-year 76. The gap from two to ten years is 44 basis points, from 47 a week ago.

§ 05 — Credit Spreads

No new spread readings have been published since the last letter. The latest data, for Thursday 8 October, show spreads on CCC-rated company bonds, the riskiest group, at 1,252 basis points after four daily rises. High-yield spreads, the extra yield over Treasuries on lower-rated company bonds, were 315.

The four ICE BofA option-adjusted spread series (investment grade BAMLC0A0CM, BBB BAMLC0A4CBBB, high yield BAMLH0A0HYM2, CCC & Lower BAMLH0A3HYC) are published by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis with a delay of one business day or more. The latest observation this morning is still Thursday 8 October, the same as in the previous letter, so this block does not include Friday 9 October or Monday 12 October. One-day changes compare with 7 October, one-week changes with 1 October and year-to-date with 31 December 2025. Levels are converted from percentage points to basis points.

§ 06 — Digital Assets

Crypto fell on Monday. Bitcoin lost 2.26% to US$81,788.32, ether 3.57% and solana 5.01%. On the week bitcoin is down 4.62%, ether 9.81% and solana 12.53%.

Levels are FMP end-of-day closes for the UTC day ended Monday 12 October. Crypto trades every day, so the one-day change compares with Sunday 11 October and the one-week change with Monday 5 October. Year-to-date compares with the 31 December 2025 close. Bitcoin’s link to shares reflects the historical daily-return pattern, closest to the Nasdaq at about 0.5 and loosest to the Dow at about 0.4.

§ 07 — Metals & Energy

Oil rose, while gold, silver and natural gas fell. Brent gained 1.84% and American crude 2.06% to US$93.74. Brent is 6.31% higher on the week, and its premium over American crude is US$12.91, from US$10.89 a week earlier. Copper added 0.82%. Gold lost 0.61% to US$4,190.60.

Commodity rows are Monday 12 October settlements from FMP end-of-day data, not this morning’s live quotes. One-day changes compare with Friday 9 October, one-week changes with Monday 5 October and year-to-date with the last 2025 settlement. The FMP Brent series moved to a later delivery month on 29 September, so its year-to-date change spans contract changes. The Brent premium over American crude is the difference between the two settlement prices: US$12.91 on Monday, US$12.87 on Friday and US$10.89 on 5 October. Silver settled at 60.513, copper at 6.747 and natural gas at 3.167. All are shown rounded.

§ 08 — Economic Calendar

US release times are Eastern. Other rows carry their local time zone. Consensus and prior figures are FMP-sourced as of this morning. For company results, prior is the second-quarter actual. Wells Fargo (US$1.85 expected) and Citigroup (US$2.65) also report on Tuesday, and Bank of America and Morgan Stanley on Wednesday. Fed speakers this week include Waller, Barkin and Collins (Tuesday), Bowman and Barkin (Wednesday) and Hammack (Thursday).

Core consumer prices on Wednesday matter most this week. Economists expect a 0.2% rise in September, after 0.3%, and headline prices 3.7% higher than a year earlier. Large US banks report on Tuesday and TSMC on Thursday. US retail sales and producer prices follow on Thursday. Singapore’s policy decision comes on Wednesday.

§ 09 — Macro Themes

1 · Attacks on Saudi Arabia. A Houthi strike on an airport in Riyadh killed 14 people over the weekend. Saudi forces said they stopped more missiles and drones aimed at oil and gas sites. Producer ministers from OPEC and other countries said shipping and insurance costs for energy have surged.

2 · A truce on energy targets. President Trump declared an “energy ceasefire” between Russia and Ukraine, but Kyiv said Russia hit energy targets after it. Russia said it may export up to 3.5 million tons of diesel a month by year-end. Lawmakers from both parties criticised the diesel deal.

3 · Competition in memory chips. China’s ChangXin Memory Technologies reported progress on a design that stores more data on each memory chip. Investors read it as new competition for Micron, Samsung and SK hynix.

4 · Talk of a Fed rate rise. Cleveland Fed President Hammack said higher rates could be needed and that smaller, quicker moves are better than waiting. Minutes of the September Fed meeting showed officials could vote to raise rates again.

5 · Banks open the results season. Analysts expect Goldman Sachs to earn US$12.86 a share and Citigroup US$2.65, both reporting on Tuesday. Citigroup shares rose 1.77% on Monday. Trading in options on single shares is near its 2021 level.

§ 10 — Analysis & Nuances

Long-term bond investors and the Fed point in different directions. From 5 to 9 October the ten-year yield fell 7 basis points as Brent rose 4.39%. Yet Hammack raised the chance of another rate rise. Short-term yields side with the Fed: the two-year sits above the one-year at 4.47% and the three-month bill at 4.25%.

Wednesday’s core reading separates the two views. If core prices rise more than the 0.2% forecast and the two-year rises more than the ten-year, Faircurve would read that as support for a rate rise. If both yields fall, growth fears are leading. A reading in line with 0.2% leaves both views open.

Calls. All three open calls are holding. The two-year at 4.80% is 5 basis points above its 4.75% line and the ten-year at 5.24% is 6 below its 5.30% line, both through Wednesday. The chip fund at US$590.99 is 5.45% under its US$625.03 line through Thursday. New call: energy, which beat technology by 6.30 percentage points last week, beats it again by at least 3 points, about half that gap, from Monday’s close to Thursday’s.

FAIRCURVE · MARKET PULSE · 13 OCT 2026 · Data: Financial Modeling Prep; credit spreads ICE BofA via the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Figures reference the Monday 12 October 2026 session (Treasuries: Friday 9 October); credit spreads are current to 8 October. Not investment advice. For informational use only.