Global Market Pulse — Wednesday, Oct 14, 2026

Faircurve Research

Global Cross-Asset Daily

Bank shares fell on worries about future loan losses, and a Chinese memory-chip advance hit Seoul. Citigroup lost 5.60% though its profit beat forecasts. SK hynix fell 10.09% and the KOSPI 5.46%. The S&P 500 slipped 0.02% to 7,805.45. Two Fed officials backed one more rate rise. Yields from three months to one year rose 1 to 2 basis points, while the ten-year fell 3 to 5.21%.

§ 01 — Equities · United States

All four US indices ended lower, with the Russell 2000 down most. The Russell 2000 lost 0.40% and the Dow 0.35% to 51,670.10, with JPMorgan down 0.86% and Goldman Sachs 0.23%. The Nasdaq fell 0.15%. Over the week the Nasdaq is down 1.43% and the Dow up 0.29%. The volatility index rose 0.06 points to 15.27.

§ 02 — S&P 500 Sector Map

Tuesday 13 Oct · sorted best to worst (1D)

Energy rose 1.80% and health care fell 1.35%, with five sectors up and six down. Chevron gained 1.32% and Exxon Mobil 1.15%. Financials lost 0.42%, and Wells Fargo fell 3.10% after its revenue missed forecasts. Technology slipped 0.04%. Applied Materials fell 6.69%, while Nvidia rose 0.97% and AMD 1.90%. Over the week energy is up 5.41% and technology down 2.83%.

Full table · sorted by YTD

§ 03 — Equities · Global

Global rows reference Tuesday 13 October closes from FMP end-of-day data. One-day moves compare with each market’s previous session and one-week moves with Tuesday 6 October. *Tokyo was shut on Monday 12 October, so the Nikkei’s one-day move compares with Friday 9 October. †Shanghai was shut on 6 October for the national holiday, so its one-week move compares with 30 September. FMP’s 13 October rows for several indices carry no volume. Their closes were confirmed against FMP full end-of-day rows and are shown as reported. Year-to-date compares with each market’s last 2025 close.

Seoul fell 5.46% as memory makers dropped for a second day. Samsung lost 7.39% and SK hynix 10.09%. The KOSPI is 8.91% lower over two sessions and 13.05% lower on the week. Taipei fell 1.95%, and Tokyo 1.82% on its return from a holiday. Europe was little changed, with the STOXX 600 down 0.10%. Hong Kong rose 0.30% and Singapore 0.28%.

§ 04 — US Treasuries

3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 6M 2Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y

Yields from three months to one year rose after Fed officials backed another rise, while longer yields fell. The three-month and one-year yields rose 1 basis point each and the six-month 2. The two-year eased 1 to 4.79%. The ten-year fell 3 to 5.21% and the thirty-year 4 to 5.56%. The gap from two to ten years is 42 basis points, from 44 on Friday and 48 a week ago. This year the two-year has risen 132 basis points and the ten-year 103.

§ 05 — Credit Spreads

No spread readings for Tuesday have been published yet. Monday’s figures repeat Friday because the bond market was shut. High-yield spreads, the extra yield over Treasuries on lower-rated company bonds, were 311 basis points, 1 lower on the week. Spreads on CCC-rated bonds, the riskiest group, were 1,253, up 42 on the week.

The four ICE BofA option-adjusted spread series (investment grade BAMLC0A0CM, BBB BAMLC0A4CBBB, high yield BAMLH0A0HYM2, CCC & Lower BAMLH0A3HYC) are published by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis with a delay of one business day or more. The latest observation this morning is Monday 12 October, when the US bond market was shut, and it repeats Friday 9 October. This block therefore does not yet reflect Tuesday 13 October. One-day changes compare with 9 October, one-week changes with 5 October and year-to-date with 31 December 2025. Levels are converted from percentage points to basis points.

§ 06 — Digital Assets

Crypto recovered part of Monday’s fall. Bitcoin rose 1.86% to US$83,261.73, ether 2.23% and solana 1.12%. On the week bitcoin is still down 2.66%, ether 7.35% and solana 11.50%.

Levels are FMP end-of-day closes for the UTC day ended Tuesday 13 October. Crypto trades every day, so the one-day change compares with Monday 12 October and the one-week change with Tuesday 6 October. FMP has revised Monday’s bitcoin close to 81,742.50 since the last letter. Year-to-date compares with the 31 December 2025 close.

§ 07 — Metals & Energy

Brent eased after three days of gains, while American crude and natural gas rose. Brent lost 0.90% to US$105.69 and American crude gained 0.43% to US$94.14. Brent’s premium over American crude narrowed to US$11.55 from US$12.91. Natural gas rose 3.66%. Gold lost 0.32% to US$4,177.30 and silver 1.63%.

Commodity rows are Tuesday 13 October settlements from FMP end-of-day data, not this morning’s live quotes. One-day changes compare with Monday 12 October, one-week changes with Tuesday 6 October and year-to-date with the last 2025 settlement. The FMP Brent series moved to a later delivery month on 29 September, so its year-to-date change spans contract changes. The Brent premium over American crude is the difference between the two settlement prices: US$11.55 on Tuesday, US$12.91 on Monday and US$11.14 on 6 October. Silver settled at 59.525, copper at 6.726 and natural gas at 3.283. All are shown rounded.

§ 08 — Economic Calendar

US release times are Eastern. Other rows carry their local time zone. Consensus and prior figures are FMP-sourced as of this morning. For company results, prior is the second-quarter actual where shown. Singapore’s third-quarter growth came in at 5.4% from a year earlier, above the 5.0% forecast, but 1.1% from the second quarter, below the 1.2% forecast. Fed speakers this week include Bowman and Barkin (Wednesday) and Hammack (Thursday).

Wednesday’s consumer price report matters most this week. Economists expect prices to rise 0.6% in September and core prices, which leave out food and energy, 0.2%. Bank of America and Morgan Stanley report before it, and TSMC on Thursday. Retail sales and producer prices follow on Thursday.

§ 09 — Macro Themes

1 · Fed officials back one more rise. New York Fed President Williams said one more rate rise this year may be appropriate, but he does not expect more in 2027. Boston Fed President Collins said another rise is possible before year-end. A three-month bill auction cleared at 4.085%, from 4.05% at the previous sale.

2 · Bank results. Goldman Sachs earned US$17.01 a share against US$12.86 expected. JPMorgan earned US$5.75, below the US$5.93 forecast, its first miss in 17 quarters. Revenue from share trading rose 39% on average across the four banks. Bank of America agreed to pay about US$1.21 billion over money-laundering and sanctions failures.

3 · Chinese memory competition. A design advance at China’s ChangXin Memory kept investors selling memory makers. Micron fell 3.62%. Applied Materials fell after presenting its 2030 goals to investors. Micron had raised its share buyback plan to US$35.16 billion on 8 October.

4 · Attack on Saudi Aramco. A Houthi missile hit Saudi Aramco’s headquarters in Dhahran and started a fire. The US government will use the Defense Production Act to expand a Delek refinery in Texas. One energy analyst said diesel prices have risen about 70%.

5 · Singapore growth. Singapore’s economy grew 5.4% from a year earlier in the third quarter, above the 5.0% forecast. Growth from the second quarter was 1.1%, just under the 1.2% forecast.

§ 10 — Analysis & Nuances

Three signs point to more caution about credit. Spreads on CCC-rated bonds rose 42 basis points in the week to Monday, while high-yield spreads were steady. Citigroup set aside more for bad loans and reported weaker capital ratios. Investors also weighed what a narrower gap between short and long yields, now 42 basis points, means for future loan losses. No bank reported rising losses yet.

The chip selling is about memory. Memory makers and equipment suppliers fell, while Nvidia and AMD rose. TSMC’s results on Thursday show whether the selling spreads beyond memory.

Wednesday’s test and calls. A core reading above 0.2% would back the two Fed officials. Faircurve would then expect the two-year to rise more than the ten-year, taking their gap below 40 basis points. The two-year sits 4 basis points above its 4.75% line and the ten-year 9 below its 5.30% line, both through Wednesday. The chip fund at US$588.12 is 5.91% under its US$625.03 line through Thursday. Energy leads technology by 1.84 points against a 3-point target by Thursday. New call: financials trail the S&P 500 by at least 0.5 points from Tuesday’s close to Friday’s.

FAIRCURVE · MARKET PULSE · 14 OCT 2026 · Data: Financial Modeling Prep; credit spreads ICE BofA via the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Figures reference the Tuesday 13 October 2026 session; credit spreads are current to 12 October (a bond-market holiday that repeats 9 October). Not investment advice. For informational use only.