Global Market Pulse — Tuesday, Oct 20, 2026

Faircurve Research

Global Cross-Asset Daily

Large AI shares recovered part of last week’s losses on Monday, and Treasury yields rose with them. Amazon gained 4.98% and the Nasdaq 1.11%. The ten-year yield rose 6 basis points to 5.15%, although American crude fell 2.83%. Most shares fell. The equal-weight S&P 500 fund lost 0.32% while the S&P 500 rose 0.41%.

§ 01 — Equities · United States

A few large companies accounted for the index gain. Tesla rose 3.76%, Micron 2.97% and Palantir 4.36%. The chip fund gained 1.61% but is down 7.20% on the week. Banks fell, with JPMorgan down 1.82% and Wells Fargo 2.47%. The Dow slipped 0.07%. The volatility index eased 1.55 points to 18.44.

§ 02 — S&P 500 Sector Map

Monday 19 Oct · sorted best to worst (1D)

Three sectors rose and eight fell. Consumer discretionary rose 1.78%, mostly on Amazon and Tesla, and technology 1.36%. Utilities fell 2.01% and real estate 1.16%. Both sectors usually lose when yields rise. On the week staples are still up 3.32% and technology down 5.30%.

Full table · sorted by YTD

§ 03 — Equities · Global

Global rows reference Monday 19 October closes from FMP end-of-day data. One-day moves compare with Friday 16 October. One-week moves compare with Monday 12 October, except the Nikkei, which was closed that day and compares with Friday 9 October. Hong Kong was closed on Monday for a public holiday, so the Hang Seng row shows Friday’s close and no one-day change. Asian markets closed before the US session. FMP’s 19 October rows for the STOXX 600, FTSE 100, CAC 40, Nikkei, TAIEX and Straits Times carry no volume, and their closes were confirmed against FMP full end-of-day rows. Year-to-date compares with each market’s last 2025 close.

European shares fell about 1% across the region. The DAX lost 1.10%, the CAC 40 1.11% and the FTSE 100 1.08%. In Asia the KOSPI rose 1.76% while the Nikkei fell 0.62% and the TAIEX 0.61%. Shanghai gained 0.39%. China’s third-quarter growth of 4.5% beat the 4.4% expected. Hong Kong was closed for a holiday.

§ 04 — US Treasuries

3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 6M 2Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y

Longer yields rose more than shorter ones. The two-year rose 3 basis points to 4.77% and the thirty-year 5 to 5.48%. The gap from two to ten years widened to 38 basis points. The long Treasury fund fell 0.74%. The bond market was closed on 12 October, so weekly changes compare with Friday 9 October. On that basis the ten-year is 9 basis points lower. The one-year sits 23 above the three-month bill, so markets still allow for a further Fed rise.

§ 05 — Credit Spreads

Spreads for the weakest borrowers widened again on Friday, the latest data available. CCC spreads, the extra yield over Treasuries on the riskiest company bonds, rose 19 basis points to 1,297 and 44 on the week. High-yield spreads widened 8 to 331 and investment-grade spreads 1 to 85. On Monday the investment-grade bond fund fell 0.50% and the high-yield fund 0.04%. Higher-rated bonds usually have longer terms, so they lose more when yields rise.

The four ICE BofA option-adjusted spread series (investment grade BAMLC0A0CM, BBB BAMLC0A4CBBB, high yield BAMLH0A0HYM2, CCC & Lower BAMLH0A3HYC) are published by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis with a delay of one business day or more. The latest observation this morning is Friday 16 October, so this block does not yet reflect Monday 19 October. One-day changes compare with 15 October, one-week changes with 9 October and year-to-date with 31 December 2025. Levels are converted from percentage points to basis points.

§ 06 — Digital Assets

Bitcoin rose 0.48% to US$81,889.18 and has moved less than shares in both directions. It is up 0.18% on the week while the Nasdaq is down 2.99%. Ether fell 0.54% and solana rose 0.62%.

Levels are FMP end-of-day closes for the UTC day ended Monday 19 October, matching the share session. The one-day change compares with Friday 16 October and the one-week change with Monday 12 October. Crypto trades every day, so the one-day change spans the weekend. Year-to-date compares with the 31 December 2025 close.

§ 07 — Metals & Energy

American crude fell 2.83% to US$98.54 after the US waived new sanctions on Russia. Brent fell only 0.28% to US$109.55, so its premium over American crude widened to US$11.01 from US$8.45. Gold fell 0.50% and natural gas 2.44%.

Commodity rows are Monday 19 October settlements from FMP end-of-day data. One-day changes compare with Friday 16 October, one-week changes with Monday 12 October and year-to-date with the last 2025 settlement. The FMP Brent series moved to a later delivery month on 29 September, so its year-to-date change spans contract changes. Silver settled at 57.273 and copper at 6.5755. Both are shown rounded.

§ 08 — Economic Calendar

US release times are Eastern. Other rows carry their local time zone. Consensus and prior figures are FMP-sourced as of this morning. FMP’s Japan headline CPI row for 23 October carries an “actual” figure before release, so only the core CPI row is shown. GE, RTX and General Motors also report on Tuesday, IBM and Texas Instruments on Wednesday.

Meta, Tesla and Lam Research report on Wednesday. Their results test the AI recovery and, through it, longer Treasury yields. Thursday’s jobless claims and Friday’s US business survey bear more on the Fed and two-year yields. Housing starts and Netflix come on Tuesday.

§ 09 — Macro Themes

1 · Amazon. Morgan Stanley named Amazon a top pick with a US$350 price target. Amazon also released a tool that moves AI software onto its own Trainium chips, a challenge to Nvidia.

2 · CoreWeave. Goldman Sachs raised CoreWeave to buy with a US$139 target. The shares still fell 0.44% and touched a one-year low of US$59.25 during the day.

3 · Fed. A Bank of America economist said the Fed could raise rates at its October meeting, while markets expect a hold. A Bank of Canada survey showed a notable rise in inflation expectations.

4 · Government borrowing. Concern about the Treasury’s financing plans returned on Monday. Economists in a survey of 71 now expect bond yields to stay higher for longer, with firmer growth.

5 · US housing. The home builders’ index fell to 29 in October against 32 expected, a level last seen in 2012, according to the builders’ association. Builders are cutting prices with mortgage rates near 7.5%.

§ 10 — Analysis & Nuances

Two forces lifted yields, at different maturities. The two-year rose 3 basis points on the day a Bank of America economist said the Fed could raise rates in October. The ten-year rose 6 as AI shares recovered. Oil was not the driver: crude fell on Monday, and in the week to Friday the ten-year fell 15 basis points while crude rose.

Good AI news is bad news for shares that suffer when yields rise. Monday showed the pattern: AI shares rose while utilities and property shares fell. If Meta reassures on Wednesday, Faircurve expects longer yields to rise further and the gap from two to ten years to widen. If Fed rate risk matters more, two-year yields rise faster and the gap narrows.

Calls. The chip fund closed at US$548.46, 2.06% under the US$560 line for Thursday: on track. Health care leads technology by 0.84 points since Thursday 15 October, short of the 1 point needed by Wednesday: behind. New call: the gap from two to ten years closes at or above 35 basis points on Friday 23 October, 3 below Monday’s 38.

FAIRCURVE · MARKET PULSE · 20 OCT 2026 · Data: Financial Modeling Prep; credit spreads ICE BofA via the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Figures reference the Monday 19 October 2026 session; credit spreads are current to 16 October. Not investment advice. For informational use only.