Global Market Pulse — Friday, Oct 23, 2026

Faircurve Research

Global Cross-Asset Daily

Meta said it will keep raising AI spending after its free cash flow turned negative, and chip makers fell almost as much as Meta. Meta lost 6.98% and the chip fund 5.99%, against 2.23% for Microsoft and 3.15% for Alphabet. The Nasdaq dropped 2.60%, yet the Dow ended flat. The ten-year Treasury yield fell 17 basis points to 4.96%.

§ 01 — Equities · United States

Chip and equipment makers led the fall, and the average share rose. Lam Research lost 11.76% after its results, AMD 8.10%, Micron 6.26% and Nvidia 4.40%. The S&P 500 fell 1.21%, while its equal-weight version rose 0.73%. The Russell 2000 gained 0.11%. Lockheed Martin rose 6.96% after raising its outlook. The volatility index rose 2.35 points to 19.03.

§ 02 — S&P 500 Sector Map

Thursday 22 Oct · sorted best to worst (1D)

Consumer staples led with 3.31%, and technology was last with a 3.29% fall. Six of eleven sectors rose. Utilities gained 2.07% and health care 1.32%. Over the week technology is down 3.62% and communications 4.46%, while staples are up 3.82%.

Full table · sorted by YTD

§ 03 — Equities · Global

Global rows reference Thursday 22 October closes from FMP end-of-day data. One-day moves compare with Wednesday 21 October and one-week moves with Thursday 15 October. Asian markets traded after Meta’s Wednesday evening results and closed before the US session. FMP’s 22 October rows for several European and Asian indices carry no volume. Year-to-date compares with each market’s last 2025 close.

Asia traded first after Meta’s results, and Korea fell most. The KOSPI lost 3.52%, the Hang Seng 3.03% and the Nikkei 2.65%. The TAIEX fell 1.81% and Singapore’s Straits Times only 0.42%. In Europe the STOXX 600 lost 1.05% and the CAC 40 1.39%, while the FTSE 100 fell 0.26%.

§ 04 — US Treasuries

3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 6M 2Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y

Investors bought Treasuries for safety, and yields fell across the curve. The two-year fell 16 basis points to 4.65%, the five-year 17 to 4.78%, the ten-year 17 to 4.96% and the thirty-year 13 to 5.29%. The two-to-ten-year gap narrowed to 31 basis points, and the two-to-thirty-year gap widened to 64. The two-year sits 43 basis points above the three-month bill, down from 56 on Wednesday, and above the 4.00% Fed rate. A rate rise remains possible, though less likely than on Wednesday.

§ 05 — Credit Spreads

The latest credit spreads, for Wednesday, came before the sell-off. The high-yield spread narrowed 6 basis points to 327 and the investment-grade spread widened 1 to 88. On Thursday the investment-grade bond fund rose 1.04% on lower yields, while the high-yield fund gained only 0.16%.

ICE BofA option-adjusted spread series (investment grade BAMLC0A0CM, BBB BAMLC0A4CBBB, high yield BAMLH0A0HYM2, CCC & Lower BAMLH0A3HYC) from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The latest observation is for Wednesday 21 October, so these figures do not yet reflect Thursday’s session. One-day change is against 20 October, one-week against 14 October, year-to-date against the last 2025 reading. Bond fund moves are FMP closes for 22 October.

§ 06 — Digital Assets

Bitcoin fell 3.28% to US$81,271.48, in step with technology shares. Ether lost 3.52% and solana 3.13%. Bitcoin is down 1.05% on the week and 7.12% this year.

Levels are FMP end-of-day closes for the UTC day ended Thursday 22 October, matching the share session. One-day changes compare with Wednesday 21 October and one-week changes with Thursday 15 October, both from this morning’s FMP history, which revises the prior day’s closes slightly. Year-to-date compares with the 31 December 2025 close.

§ 07 — Metals & Energy

Brent rose 4.00% to US$113.17 after Yemen’s Houthis stepped up attacks on Saudi Arabia. American crude gained 2.39% to US$99.47. Gold fell 2.16% to US$4,060.40 and silver 4.68%. Copper lost 2.76%.

Commodity rows are Thursday 22 October settlements from FMP end-of-day data. One-day changes compare with Wednesday 21 October, one-week changes with Thursday 15 October and year-to-date with the last 2025 settlement. Early 23 October rows are ignored. The FMP Brent series moved to a later delivery month on 29 September, so its year-to-date change spans contract changes. Copper settled at 6.398 and natural gas at 2.796.

§ 08 — Economic Calendar

US release times are Eastern. Other rows carry their local time zone. Consensus and prior figures are FMP-sourced as of this morning. The Bank of England also decides on Thursday 29 October (prior 3.75%). The Fed row shows FMP’s consensus and prior for the policy rate.

Microsoft and Alphabet report on Wednesday 28 October, the day of the Fed decision. Their cash flow after AI spending will show whether Meta’s negative quarter is shared. Thursday 29 October brings US growth for the third quarter, September core inflation, the ECB decision and Amazon’s results.

§ 09 — Macro Themes

1 · Meta’s funding. Meta announced a 2-for-1 share split and a new class of non-voting shares. The cost of insuring its debt against default rose on Thursday. Power-equipment makers that supply data centres also fell.

2 · Middle East. Saudi Aramco evacuated its headquarters after the attacks, and President Trump ruled out talks with Iran. Brent now costs US$13.70 a barrel more than American crude.

3 · US jobs. Weekly jobless claims fell to 194,000 against 200,000 expected. Lower yields reflected the demand for safety, not weaker jobs data.

4 · Europe. Euro-area consumer confidence fell to minus 17.9 in October, below the minus 17.0 expected, which was blamed on high energy prices.

§ 10 — Analysis & Nuances

Chip makers fell more than Microsoft and Alphabet. The chip fund lost 5.99%, against an average 2.69% fall for the two. A buyer with negative free cash flow may slow its orders, and chip makers depend on a few such buyers. Wednesday’s Faircurve view, that chip makers would gain while buyers carried the cost, failed its first test.

Treasuries rose even as oil jumped. The ten-year fell 17 basis points while Brent rose 4.00%, although higher oil usually lifts yields through inflation fears. Gold fell 2.16%. Buyers seeking safety chose government bonds and steady sectors such as staples and utilities, not metals.

Calls. The chip fund closed at US$523.35, under the US$560 line for Thursday: hit. The equal-weight fund leads the index by 1.73 points since Tuesday, past the 0.5 needed by Friday: on track. The two-to-ten-year gap is 31 basis points, 4 short of 35 for Friday: behind. The chip fund trails the Microsoft and Alphabet mix by 3.30 points, against a 1-point lead needed by 29 October: behind. New call: the ten-year closes at or below 5.00% on 29 October. Faircurve expects the Fed to hold at 4.00% on 28 October, as forecast, and core inflation near 3.1% the next morning. The line is 4 basis points above Thursday’s close, inside this week’s 14 basis point move. Core inflation above 3.1% would put it at risk.

FAIRCURVE · MARKET PULSE · 23 OCT 2026 · Data: Financial Modeling Prep; credit spreads ICE BofA via the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (latest 21 October). Figures reference the Thursday 22 October 2026 session. Not investment advice. For informational use only.