Global Market Pulse — Monday, Oct 26, 2026

Faircurve Research

Global Cross-Asset Daily

Investors sold the largest US technology companies last week over doubts about the return on AI spending, while most other shares rose. The S&P 500 lost 0.47% on the week, but its equal-weight version gained 1.14% and the Russell 2000 2.00%. On Friday Brent rose 3.14% to US$116.72 and the ten-year Treasury yield rose 4 basis points to 5.00%.

§ 01 — Equities · United States

Chip makers recovered part of Thursday’s fall, while the Dow lost 1.23%. Micron rose 2.46%, AMD 1.74% and Intel 1.72%, and the Nasdaq slipped only 0.21%. The S&P 500 fell 0.52% and its equal-weight version 0.77%.

§ 02 — S&P 500 Sector Map

Friday 23 Oct · sorted best to worst (1D)

Energy rose 2.60% with oil, and consumer staples fell 1.92% after Thursday’s 3.31% gain. Only three of eleven sectors rose on Friday. Over the week eight rose, led by energy at 1.60% and health care at 1.45%. Communications, home to Meta and Alphabet, lost 4.36% on the week.

Full table · sorted by YTD

§ 03 — Equities · Global

Global rows reference Friday 23 October closes from FMP end-of-day data. One-day moves compare with Thursday 22 October and one-week moves with Friday 16 October. FMP had no 23 October close for the TAIEX, so its row shows Thursday 22 October against 21 October and 15 October. The Hang Seng was closed on Monday 19 October. Year-to-date compares with each market’s last 2025 close.

Asia ended a weak week mixed, and Europe slipped again. The Hang Seng rose 0.69% on Friday but lost 4.52% on the week, and the Nikkei fell 4.03% on the week. Of the nine markets outside the US with Friday closes, only Singapore’s Straits Times gained on the week, by 0.12%. The STOXX 600 lost 0.31% on Friday and 1.39% on the week.

§ 04 — US Treasuries

3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 6M 2Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y

Yields rose on Friday while oil climbed, but fell over the week. The two-year, five-year, ten-year and thirty-year yields each rose 4 basis points, to 4.69%, 4.82%, 5.00% and 5.33%. Over the week the ten-year fell 9 basis points and the two-year 5. The two-year sits 69 basis points above the 4.00% Fed rate, which fits a further rise more than a cut.

§ 05 — Credit Spreads

Spreads on the riskiest company debt widened sharply before Friday. The latest readings, for Thursday, show the CCC spread up 33 basis points to 1,340, the high-yield spread at 340 and the investment-grade spread at 89. On Friday the high-yield bond fund slipped 0.06% and the investment-grade fund 0.41%.

ICE BofA option-adjusted spread series (investment grade BAMLC0A0CM, BBB BAMLC0A4CBBB, high yield BAMLH0A0HYM2, CCC & Lower BAMLH0A3HYC) from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The latest observation is for Thursday 22 October, so these figures do not yet reflect Friday’s session. One-day change is against 21 October, one-week against 15 October, year-to-date against the last 2025 reading. Bond fund moves are FMP closes for 23 October.

§ 06 — Digital Assets

Bitcoin did not join Friday’s chip rebound. It slipped 0.28% to US$81,078.04, ether 0.06% and solana 0.79%. Bitcoin lost 0.52% on the week and is down 7.34% this year.

Levels are FMP end-of-day closes for the UTC day ended Friday 23 October, matching the share session. One-day changes compare with Thursday 22 October and one-week changes with Friday 16 October, both from this morning’s FMP history, which revised Thursday’s bitcoin close to 81,307.16. Weekend trading is not included. Year-to-date compares with the 31 December 2025 close.

§ 07 — Metals & Energy

Brent rose 3.14% to US$116.72, and 6.24% on the week, as the risk of renewed fighting with Iran grew. American crude gained 3.82% to US$103.27. Gold fell 1.29% to US$4,007.90 and 4.14% on the week. Silver lost 5.86% on the week and natural gas 15.28%.

Commodity rows are Friday 23 October settlements from FMP end-of-day data. One-day changes compare with Thursday 22 October, one-week changes with Friday 16 October and year-to-date with the last 2025 settlement. The FMP Brent series moved to a later delivery month on 29 September, so its year-to-date change spans contract changes. Copper settled at 6.5075 and natural gas at 2.640.

§ 08 — Economic Calendar

US release times are Eastern. Other rows carry their local time zone. Consensus and prior figures are FMP-sourced as of this morning. The Fed row shows FMP’s consensus and prior for the policy rate. Apple reports on Monday 2 November.

Microsoft and Alphabet report on Wednesday, and Amazon on Thursday. The Fed also decides on Wednesday, with a hold at 4.00% expected. Thursday brings third-quarter US growth, September core inflation and the ECB and Bank of England decisions.

§ 09 — Macro Themes

1 · The Fed under Kevin Warsh. The Fed raised rates in September. Some forecasters expect another rise before the year ends. In the University of Michigan survey, consumer sentiment came in at 48.0 against 46.3 expected.

2 · Europe slows. France’s October business survey fell to 48.4 against 50.5 expected. A reading below 50 means activity is shrinking. The euro-area reading came in at 51.9, below the 52.7 expected. UK retail sales dropped 0.4% in September.

3 · Oil supply. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is recovering, but stockpiles are low. A first Russian diesel cargo is heading to New York after a US deal with Russia to lower fuel prices. Brent costs US$13.45 a barrel more than American crude.

4 · Energy results. Exxon Mobil and Chevron report on Friday 30 October, with earnings per share of US$4.10 and US$4.86 expected. Energy is the best sector this year, up 55.07%. Their results will show how much of the higher oil price reaches profits.

§ 10 — Analysis & Nuances

The index fell because its largest members fell, and profits are just as concentrated. The S&P 500 lost 0.47% on the week while the Dow rose 0.41%. Ten companies, including Nvidia and Micron, account for about two-thirds of US company profit growth. So this week’s results from Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon matter more for the index than for the average share.

Treasury yields fell, but riskier company debt and gold did not gain. Treasury yields fell over the week, yet the CCC spread widened 62 basis points, and on Thursday the high-yield spread widened 13 while the investment-grade spread rose 1. Gold fell as well. Faircurve reads one-year inflation expectations of 4.7%, up from 4.6%, as a limit on further falls in short-term yields.

Calls. The equal-weight fund beat the index by 1.47 points from Tuesday to Friday: hit. The two-to-ten-year gap closed at 31 basis points, short of 35: missed. The chip fund trails the Microsoft and Alphabet mix by 2.34 points since Wednesday, against a 1-point lead needed by Thursday: behind. The ten-year sits on its 5.00% line for Thursday. New call: the Russell 2000 beats the Nasdaq by at least 1 point from Friday to 30 October, against last week’s 2.71-point gap. A Nasdaq lead on 30 October ends the call. Strong results from Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon are the main risk.

FAIRCURVE · MARKET PULSE · 26 OCT 2026 · Data: Financial Modeling Prep; credit spreads ICE BofA via the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (latest 22 October). Figures reference the Friday 23 October 2026 session. Not investment advice. For informational use only.