Global Market Pulse — Thursday, Oct 29, 2026

Faircurve Research

Global Cross-Asset Daily

The Fed kept its rate at 3.75% to 4.00%, and long-dated yields rose after investors read the chairman as in no hurry to raise again. The ten-year yield rose 6 basis points to 5.05%, while the two-year fell 3 to 4.67%. The S&P 500 added 0.28% to 7,743.98. After the close, Alphabet missed profit forecasts and Microsoft beat them.

§ 01 — Equities · United States

Chip makers led again, while most other shares were flat. The Russell 2000 gained 0.41%, the Nasdaq 0.27% and the Dow 0.19%. Micron rose 5.86% and AMD 3.24%, while Nvidia fell 1.17%. Oracle jumped 10.58% after it raised its long-term targets.

§ 02 — S&P 500 Sector Map

Wednesday 28 Oct · sorted best to worst (1D)

Six sectors rose and five fell, with technology first and utilities last. Technology gained 0.80% and utilities lost 0.84%. Real estate fell 0.73%. The equal-weight S&P 500 fund slipped 0.04%. Over the week, communications is down 5.35%.

Full table · sorted by YTD

§ 03 — Equities · Global

Global rows reference Wednesday 28 October closes from FMP end-of-day data. One-day moves compare with Tuesday 27 October and one-week moves with Wednesday 21 October. FMP has no 23 or 26 October close for the TAIEX. Asian and European markets closed before the Fed decision. Year-to-date compares with each market’s last 2025 close.

Korea jumped after SK hynix reported a seven-fold rise in profit. The KOSPI rose 6.63% to 6,012.44 and the TAIEX 2.04%. The Nikkei gained 1.08% and the Shanghai Composite 0.91%. European shares were flat before the Fed, with the DAX up 0.46%.

§ 04 — US Treasuries

3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 6M 2Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y

Yields up to two years fell after the hold, while yields from five years out rose. The three-month fell 4 basis points to 4.18% and the two-year 3 to 4.67%. The ten-year rose 6 to 5.05% and the thirty-year 7 to 5.37%. The gap between the two- and ten-year yields widened to 38 basis points from 29. The two-year sits 67 basis points above the 4.00% top of the Fed range. The long bond fund fell 0.78%.

§ 05 — Credit Spreads

Company bond spreads narrowed again in Tuesday’s readings, the latest available. The high-yield spread fell 12 basis points to 318 and the CCC spread 24 to 1,321. The investment-grade bond fund lost 0.22% on Wednesday as long-dated yields rose.

ICE BofA option-adjusted spread series (investment grade BAMLC0A0CM, BBB BAMLC0A4CBBB, high yield BAMLH0A0HYM2, CCC & Lower BAMLH0A3HYC) from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The latest observation is for Tuesday 27 October, so these figures do not yet reflect Wednesday’s session or the Fed decision. One-day change is against 26 October, one-week against 20 October, year-to-date against the last 2025 reading. Bond fund moves are FMP closes for 28 October.

§ 06 — Digital Assets

Bitcoin edged up but stays below last week’s level. It rose 0.58% to US$81,266.20, ether 0.44% and solana 1.11%. Bitcoin is down 3.28% over the week and 7.12% this year.

Levels are FMP end-of-day closes for the UTC day ended Wednesday 28 October. One-day changes compare with Tuesday 27 October and one-week changes with Wednesday 21 October. Year-to-date compares with the 31 December 2025 close.

§ 07 — Metals & Energy

Energy prices rose while gold and silver fell. American crude gained 2.88% to US$102.78 and Brent 1.26% to US$115.32, up 5.97% over the week. US natural gas jumped 12.42%. Gold lost 0.56% to US$4,051.60 and silver 1.55%.

Commodity rows are Wednesday 28 October settlements from FMP end-of-day data. One-day changes compare with Tuesday 27 October, one-week changes with Wednesday 21 October and year-to-date with the last 2025 settlement. The FMP Brent series moved to a later delivery month on 29 September, so its year-to-date change spans contract changes. Copper settled at 6.6715 and natural gas at 3.032.

§ 08 — Economic Calendar

US release times are Eastern. Other rows carry their local time zone. Consensus and prior figures are FMP-sourced as of this morning. Rate rows show FMP’s consensus and prior for the policy rate. The Bank of England decision follows on Thursday 5 November.

Thursday brings US growth, core inflation (3.1% expected), the ECB decision and Amazon’s results. The Bank of Japan decides on Friday, with a hold at 1.25% expected. Apple reports and the US factory survey is out on Monday, with the midterm elections on 3 November.

§ 09 — Macro Themes

1 · A Fed with fewer meetings. The vote was 10 to 2, with Beth Hammack and Lisa Cook dissenting. Chairman Kevin Warsh said the Fed will hold seven rate votes in 2027 and six in 2028, down from eight.

2 · Energy costs spreading. Europe’s benchmark gas price touched 100 euros per megawatt hour, as Middle East shipping was disrupted. The World Bank expects commodity prices to rise 23% in 2026.

3 · One former official sees a December rise. Former Fed vice chair Richard Clarida expects the Fed to raise rates in December. The Bank of Canada raised its rate to 2.50% from 2.25% on the same day.

4 · One AI customer, one big share. Microsoft booked US$10 billion of revenue from OpenAI in the quarter, close to 11% of its total. It cut its 2026 spending plan to US$170 billion from US$175 billion.

§ 10 — Analysis & Nuances

Long-dated yields rose while short-dated yields fell, and Faircurve reads the gap as inflation worry. Warsh said inflation is still too high, and crude and gas rose the same day. The two-year still sits 67 basis points above the Fed’s top rate, which prices a rise, not a cut. The caveat is that gold fell 0.56%, which does not fit an inflation scare.

After hours, Alphabet’s profit miss led, and its cash use added to it. Alphabet earned US$2.12 a share against US$2.94 expected and traded at US$292.38, about 10% below its close, though cloud revenue rose 103%. It also used US$9.1 billion more cash than it brought in. Microsoft beat, generated US$18.6 billion and traded about 2.8% higher.

Calls. The chip fund leads the Microsoft and Alphabet mix by 3.63 points since 21 October, against 1 needed by Thursday: ahead. The Russell 2000 trails the Nasdaq by 0.32 points since 23 October, against a 1-point lead needed by Friday: behind. The ten-year at 5.05% is 5 basis points above the 5.00% line for Thursday: off track. The chip fund leads communications by 5.49 points since Monday: ahead. The two-year at 4.67% sits 2 basis points above Friday’s 4.65% line: on track. New call: the two-to-ten-year gap ends Friday at 33 basis points or more, 5 below Wednesday’s 38. Core inflation above the 3.1% forecast on Thursday would weaken it by lifting the two-year faster.

FAIRCURVE · MARKET PULSE · 29 OCT 2026 · Data: Financial Modeling Prep; credit spreads ICE BofA via the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (latest 27 October). Figures reference the Wednesday 28 October 2026 session. Not investment advice. For informational use only.