Global Market Pulse — Friday, Sep 25, 2026

Faircurve Research

Global Cross-Asset Daily

Investors demanded more yield to hold long government debt while leaving the expected policy rate almost untouched, and the two largest American share indices finished unchanged. The twenty-year yield rose 8 basis points to 5.53% and the thirty-year 7 to 5.47%, against 2 basis points at two years. The S&P 500 closed 0.02% lower and the Nasdaq Composite 0.01% higher. Gold fell 0.47% and is 0.99% lower on the year while Brent is 75.18% higher.

§ 01 — Equities · United States

The S&P 500 closed 0.02% lower at 7,704.13 and the Nasdaq Composite 0.01% higher at 26,939.37. Neither moved. The Dow Jones fell 0.31% and the Russell 2000 0.11%. The volatility index closed at 15.67, up 0.49 points from 15.44 a week ago. The thirty-year yield reached its highest level of 2026 that day and the S&P 500 still closed within 0.02% of Wednesday. Over five sessions the S&P 500 is 0.87% higher and the Nasdaq Composite 1.97% higher. The Dow Jones is 0.83% lower and the Russell 2000 1.36% lower.

§ 02 — S&P 500 Sector Map

Thursday 24 Sep · sorted best to worst (1D)

Communications rose 1.27% and health care 0.63%. Materials fell 1.19%, utilities 0.98% and staples 0.89%. Three of the eleven sectors rose. An inflation move would lift materials and energy together. Materials was the worst instead, and energy ranked third at 0.37%. Real estate, most exposed to borrowing costs, fell only 0.45%. Over five sessions the two weakest are the two that borrow most, utilities 5.59% lower and real estate 3.00% lower, against technology 3.54% higher.

Full table · sorted by YTD

§ 03 — Equities · Global

Global rows reference Thursday 24 September closes from FMP end-of-day data. One-day moves compare with Wednesday 23 September and one-week moves with Thursday 17 September. Korean markets were shut on Thursday, so the KOSPI has no one-day move and its columns carry the Wednesday 23 September close against Wednesday 16 September. Tokyo was shut from Monday 21 to Wednesday 23 September and reopened on Thursday, so the Nikkei 225 one-day move compares Thursday with the Friday 18 September close. Year-to-date compares with each market’s last 2025 close, which is 30 December for the STOXX 600, the DAX, the Nikkei 225 and the KOSPI and 31 December elsewhere. Friday quotes from Tokyo, Hong Kong and Singapore were live when this letter closed and are not used.

Tokyo closed 0.76% above its previous reading, the Friday 18 September close, led by bank shares. Japanese lenders hold American bonds and earn more as those yields rise, so the move that hurt American utilities helped them. The Nikkei 225 is 30.14% higher on the year. Frankfurt added 0.11% and every other European market fell, Paris 0.52% and the STOXX 600 0.55%. Shanghai fell 1.22%, the largest decline on the list. Korean markets were shut. The KOSPI leads the year at 68.03%, Taipei 65.81%.

§ 04 — US Treasuries

3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 6M 2Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y

The twenty-year yield rose 8 basis points to 5.53%, the thirty-year 7 to 5.47%, the ten-year 7 to 5.18% and the two-year 2 to 4.87%. On Wednesday the five-year led at 16 basis points and the thirty-year lagged at 11. Thursday reversed that order. The twenty-year has yielded more than the thirty-year for at least a week and the amount is growing: 3 basis points on 17 September, 5 on Wednesday and 6 on Thursday. A changed view on inflation or on the policy rate moves the whole curve together. This did not. A shortage of buyers at one maturity can. A five-year sale drew weak demand this week and a seven-year sale followed Thursday. The gap between two-year and thirty-year yields widened to 60 basis points from 55. The two-year sits 63 basis points above the three-month bill, against 66 on Wednesday.

§ 05 — Credit Spreads

The weakest tier of corporate credit widened 18 basis points in a day to 1,093, while investment grade at 77, BBB at 95 and high yield at 273 barely moved. The first three are tighter than at the end of 2025. The CCC tier is 208 basis points wider, and its gap to the broad high yield index has grown to 820 basis points from 604 in December. Lenders are charging far more to the weakest borrowers and slightly less to everyone else. These series run to 23 September and do not include Thursday.

The four ICE BofA option-adjusted spread series this letter uses (investment grade BAMLC0A0CM, BBB BAMLC0A4CBBB, high yield BAMLH0A0HYM2, CCC & Lower BAMLH0A3HYC) are published by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and carry a publication delay. The latest observation available this morning is Wednesday 23 September, so this block is current to that date and does not include the Thursday 24 September bond move. One-day changes compare with 22 September, one-week changes with 16 September and year-to-date with 31 December 2025. Levels are converted from percentage points to basis points.

§ 06 — Digital Assets

Bitcoin rose 0.26% to US$84,600.67, ether 0.21% and solana 2.12%. All three held while long-dated yields rose. A higher cost of holding a zero-income asset would normally push them down and did not, which fits a bond move about supply rather than the return on cash. The five-session gains are large, bitcoin 10.81%, ether 9.98% and solana 15.65%, but they run from a much lower base on 17 September. Bitcoin is still 3.31% lower on the year.

Levels are FMP end-of-day closes for the UTC day ended Thursday 24 September. The one-day change compares with Wednesday 23 September, the one-week change with Thursday 17 September, and year-to-date with the 31 December 2025 close. Crypto trades without a daily close, so the UTC day shown runs to 08:00 in New York and captures the overnight reaction rather than the American afternoon. Bitcoin’s equity link reflects the historical daily-return pattern, closest to the Nasdaq at about 0.5 and loosest to the Dow at about 0.4.

§ 07 — Metals & Energy

Gold fell 0.47% to US$4,298.00 and is 0.99% lower on the year, while Brent rose 3.41% to US$106.60 and is 75.18% higher. Those two facts do not sit together in an inflation story. Fuel is dearer and the metal bought against inflation is down on the year, because a 5.18% ten-year yield costs more to give up than rising fuel is worth. American crude rose 2.66% to US$94.61 and Brent now costs US$11.99 more, against US$2.91 a week ago, on the proposed American ban on diesel exports.

Commodity rows are Thursday 24 September settlements from FMP end-of-day data. One-day changes compare with Wednesday 23 September, one-week changes with Thursday 17 September and year-to-date with the last 2025 settlement. The Brent premium over American crude quoted in the note is the difference between the two settlement prices on each of those dates: US$11.99 on Thursday, US$10.92 on Wednesday, US$2.91 a week earlier and US$3.43 at the end of 2025. Natural gas settled at 3.297 and is shown rounded.

§ 08 — Economic Calendar

US release times are Eastern. Other rows carry their local time zone. Consensus and prior figures are FMP-sourced as of this morning. The window runs to Friday 2 October so that it reaches the September employment report, which is the largest scheduled test of the reading in this letter.

The September employment report lands on Friday 2 October, with payrolls expected at 90K after 162K. A strong figure removes the case for the Federal Reserve to stop raising rates, and reaches long-dated debt through the same auctions that cleared weakly this week. August core personal consumption expenditures come first, on 30 September, expected at 0.3% on the month and 3.4% on the year. Durable goods orders are due today, expected to fall 0.4% after a 1.1% rise.

§ 09 — Macro Themes

1 · Nobody is obliged to own the twenty-year. Pension funds and insurers buy thirty-year debt to match payments due decades out. No such obligation exists twenty years out. At the end of 2025 the twenty-year yielded 5 basis points less than the thirty-year. The order reversed during 2026.

2 · Long yields reached households this week. The average thirty-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 7.03% from 6.95% a week earlier. A yield rise driven by supply costs a borrower exactly what an inflation-driven one would. The distinction matters to markets, not to households.

3 · Natural gas rose 9.06%, the largest single-day move on these tables. European gas inventories sit at levels last seen in 2021 and utilities there are switching to coal. Europe covers that shortfall with American cargoes, which is how the shortage reaches an American price. Gas is still 10.55% lower on the year.

4 · The same yield rise pays one set of banks and costs another. American financials fell 0.02% on Thursday and are 2.42% lower over five sessions, while Japanese lenders led Tokyo higher. Japanese banks hold American government debt outright. American banks lend at home, where higher rates slow borrowing first.

5 · The index level is hiding a nine-point split. The best and worst sectors are 9.13 points apart over five sessions. Companies that fund themselves from cash are being separated from companies that must borrow, and the index shows none of it.

§ 10 — Analysis & Nuances

Three things say this is about the supply of bonds rather than about inflation. The Federal Reserve raised its target range 25 basis points on 16 September and markets price further increases, so the policy story is live. It does not explain Thursday. The two-year rose 2 basis points against 7 at thirty years, so almost no extra tightening was added. The asset bought against inflation is losing while fuel is up by three quarters on the year. And credit is calm except at the bottom: investment grade, BBB and high yield are all tighter than at the end of 2025. A broad worry about growth or prices would not leave them there.

What would change the reading. Faircurve expects the twenty-year to yield at least 6 basis points more than the thirty-year on the day of the 2 October employment report. A gap of 5 basis points or less that day would mean the shortage of buyers is clearing and this reading is wrong. The employment report is a two-sided test. A strong figure that widens the gap between two-year and thirty-year yields beyond 60 basis points confirms this reading. One that narrows it puts the policy explanation back in front, because a strong figure lifts the two-year first.

FAIRCURVE · MARKET PULSE · 25 SEP 2026 · Data: Financial Modeling Prep; credit spreads ICE BofA via the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Figures reference the Thursday 24 September 2026 session; credit spreads are current to 23 September. Not investment advice. For informational use only.