Global Market Pulse — Monday, Sep 14, 2026

Faircurve Research

Global Cross-Asset Daily

Core consumer prices rose 0.3% in August against 0.2% expected. Investors priced Wednesday’s Federal Reserve rise as near certain and added to the rises they expect after it. The two-year yield rose 7 basis points to 4.63%, and every maturity out to ten years closed at a 2026 high. The thirty-year fell 2 basis points to 5.35% as Brent fell 2.81% to US$104.61 on reports that Gulf states were preparing talks with Iran. With the decision settled and oil lower, the S&P 500 rose 0.86% and the VIX fell 11.21%. Consumers told the Michigan survey they expect 4.6% inflation over the coming year, against 3.4% over the past year.

§ 01 — Equities · United States

The S&P 500 rose 0.86% to 7,656.98, its first rise in five sessions. The Dow rose 0.98%, the Nasdaq 0.96% and the Russell 2000 0.45%. The Russell gained least and is the week’s worst at 2.41% lower. All four indices fell on the week. Of 30 Dow stocks, 24 rose. Four of the six that fell are health-care companies, UnitedHealth the largest dollar loss at 2.37%.

§ 02 — S&P 500 Sector Map

Friday 11 Sep · sorted best to worst (1D)

Nine of eleven sectors rose. Technology led at 1.32% and industrials rose 1.07%. Health care fell 0.18% and utilities 0.31%. Energy rose 0.32%, less than the index, on a day Brent fell 2.81%. On the week energy is the best sector at 1.69% higher and one of three to rise, with communications 0.51% and technology 0.21%. Health care is the week’s worst at 3.55% lower.

Full table · sorted by YTD

§ 03 — Equities · Global

Global rows reference Friday 11 September closes from FMP end-of-day data. One-day moves compare with Thursday 10 September, one-week moves with Friday 4 September and year-to-date with each market’s last 2025 close. Tokyo, Seoul, Taipei, Hong Kong, Shanghai and Singapore closed before the US inflation report at 08:30 Eastern; Europe closed after it. The dollar bought 153.47 yen at Friday’s close against 154.42 on Thursday and 156.20 on 4 September.

Tokyo, Seoul and Taipei closed before the US inflation report and fell 1.61% to 1.93%, following Thursday’s 2.66% fall in the US chip index. Europe traded after the report and rose: the DAX 0.88%, the CAC 0.78%, the STOXX 600 0.49% and the FTSE 0.39%. Seoul is the only market of ten higher on the week, at 3.33%, and remains the year’s leader at 63.97%. The yen rose 0.62% against the dollar to 153.47 before Friday’s Bank of Japan decision, consensus 1.25% from 1.00%.

§ 04 — US Treasuries

3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 6M 2Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y

Every maturity from one month to ten years closed at a 2026 high on Friday. The twenty- and thirty-year fell. The two-year rose 7 basis points to 4.63% and the thirty-year fell 2 to 5.35%. The two-year now sits 63 basis points above the 4.00% the Fed is expected to set on Wednesday, a distance that appears when investors expect further rises. The gap between two-year and thirty-year yields narrowed 9 basis points to 72, the smallest since 22 June. The thirty-year has moved with Brent for three sessions, up 3 and 9 basis points as oil rose, down 2 as it fell. The two-year also rose on Wednesday and Thursday, 4 and 13 basis points, so only Friday separates oil from the inflation report. On the week the two-year rose 26 basis points and the thirty-year 11.

§ 05 — Credit Spreads

Thursday’s reading widened CCC-rated spreads 6 basis points to 1,070, a 2026 high, while high-yield spreads narrowed 1 to 270 and investment grade 1 to 80. Treasury yields have raised borrowing costs for every tier this year, the five-year by 105 basis points. CCC borrowers pay a far wider spread on top, 185 basis points more than at the end of 2025. High-yield spreads are 11 narrower and investment grade 1 wider. The gap to high yield, 800 basis points, is the widest of 2026. It has widened on 106 of 182 daily readings this year, so the level, not the direction, is the news. Tonight’s reading tests this: high yield above 275 or investment grade above 81 would say the wider spread is reaching other tiers.

Credit spreads are FRED ICE BofA option-adjusted spreads (IG BAMLC0A0CM, BBB BAMLC0A4CBBB, HY BAMLH0A0HYM2, CCC & Lower BAMLH0A3HYC) as of the Thursday 10 September close, the latest observation FRED had published at this letter’s deadline; FRED posts one business day in arrears and Friday’s reading arrives tonight. One-day changes reference Wednesday 9 September, one-week changes Thursday 3 September, and year-to-date the last 2025 observation. Widening (positive basis points) reads as stress. Narrowing reads as relief.

§ 06 — Digital Assets

Bitcoin rose 0.88% to US$77,208.55, less than the Nasdaq’s 0.96%. Ether rose 3.24% and Solana 3.88%, more than three and four times bitcoin’s rise. Bitcoin is 3.10% lower on the week. Bitcoin has done better than the Nasdaq on two of eight sessions this month. One was 3 September, the one day the two-year yield fell, when it rose 5.12% against 1.40%. The other was 9 September, when the two-year rose 4 basis points and bitcoin fell 0.21% against 0.64%. A lower two-year after Wednesday’s decision with bitcoin again rising more than the Nasdaq would repeat 3 September.

Levels are FMP end-of-day closes for the UTC day ended Friday 11 September, the session this letter covers. Crypto traded through the weekend, and Sunday’s session was still settling at this letter’s deadline, so the one-day change compares with Thursday 10 September, the one-week change with Friday 4 September, and year-to-date with the 31 December 2025 close. FMP has revised Thursday’s closes since Friday’s letter (bitcoin 76,536.55 from 76,772.03, ether 2,437.36 from 2,445.92, Solana 98.62 from 99.17); the one-day changes use the revised bases. Bitcoin’s equity link reflects the historical daily-return pattern, closest to the Nasdaq at about 0.5 and loosest to the Dow at about 0.4.

§ 07 — Metals & Energy

Brent fell 2.81% to US$104.61 and WTI 2.37% to US$100.05 after reports that Gulf states were preparing talks with Iran. Gold rose 0.04% to US$4,408.90 with the two-year yield up 7 basis points. Silver rose 0.40% and copper 0.01% to US$6.55. Saudi Arabia shut its East-West pipeline after drone attacks, first reported on Friday evening after the settlement, and Brent was above Friday’s settlement in Asian hours on Monday.

Commodity rows are Friday 11 September settlements from FMP, identical in the end-of-day rows and the quote endpoint’s previous close for all six contracts. One-day changes compare with Thursday 10 September’s settlements, which still match the values printed in Friday’s letter. One-week changes compare with Friday 4 September and year-to-date with the last 2025 settlement. Monday morning quotes are live and are not shown.

§ 08 — Economic Calendar

US release times are Eastern; other rows carry their local time zone. Consensus figures are FMP-sourced as of this morning. Federal Reserve officials are in their pre-meeting quiet period until Wednesday. Saudi Arabia shut its East-West pipeline after drone attacks, first reported on Friday evening after the oil settlement, and maritime trackers reported a new attack on a ship in the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday.

The Federal Reserve decides on Wednesday at 14:00 Eastern, consensus 4.00% from 3.75%, the first rise in more than three years, with new rate projections and Chair Warsh’s press conference at 14:30. August retail sales come the same morning, consensus 0.9%. The Bank of Japan decides on Friday, consensus 1.25% from 1.00%.

§ 09 — Macro Themes

1 · The market prices more rises than Wednesday’s one. The two-year at 4.63% against a 4.00% consensus for Wednesday prices rises beyond this one. A two-year falling on a 4.00% decision says the projections showed fewer rises than the market priced. A rise says they showed more.

2 · Long-term yields followed oil on Friday, and tonight retests that. The thirty-year fell 2 basis points with Brent 2.81% lower. Brent was higher on Monday after the Saudi pipeline shutdown. The thirty-year rising above 5.35% tonight says oil set long-term yields.

3 · The weakest borrowers pay a far wider spread this year. The rest pay about the same or less. CCC spreads are 185 basis points wider than at the end of 2025, high-yield spreads 11 narrower and investment grade 1 wider. High yield above 275 or investment grade above 81 tonight says that is changing.

4 · Consumers expect more inflation than they have had. Michigan one-year inflation expectations rose to 4.6% from 4.0%, against 3.4% consumer price inflation over the past year. Sentiment fell to 47.8 from 51.7, against 51.0 expected. August retail sales, consensus 0.9%, are the check: a fall would say spending has followed sentiment.

§ 10 — Analysis & Nuances

The question for Wednesday is no longer whether the Fed raises rates. It is how many rises the Fed puts in its projections against the number the market has priced. A monthly core reading of 0.3% moved the two-year to 4.63%, and a two-year that far above the rate the Fed is expected to set appears when investors expect further rises. The twenty- and thirty-year did not follow: the thirty-year fell with oil, and the gap between two-year and thirty-year yields is the smallest since June. Stocks rose because the decision was no longer in question and because oil fell. Thursday’s credit reading put CCC spreads at 1,070, the one tier where the year’s higher yields also show as a much wider spread.

Two tests carry the most information this week. First, the two-year’s direction on Wednesday against the projections, with a fall from 4.63% meaning fewer rises than priced and a rise meaning more. Second, the thirty-year’s response to oil tonight. A thirty-year above 5.35% with Brent higher keeps long-term yields tied to oil. A thirty-year lower with Brent higher means trust in the Fed or buying of safe assets after the attacks. Tuesday’s twenty-year auction, judged against the yield the bond traded at just before the 13:00 Eastern sale, shows whether that demand for long maturities is real. The Fed holding at 3.75% would put the thirty-year against 5.37%, Thursday’s level, and a close above it says long-term lenders wanted the rise.

FAIRCURVE · MARKET PULSE · 14 SEP 2026 · Data: Financial Modeling Prep and FRED (ICE BofA credit spreads). Figures reference the Friday 11 September 2026 session. Not investment advice. For informational use only.