Global Market Pulse - Wednesday, Sep 23, 2026

Faircurve Research

Global Cross-Asset Daily

Over five sessions American crude fell 14.47% while Brent fell 8.74%. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.45% on Tuesday to 27,244.28, its highest close of 2026, the S&P 500 finished unchanged and the Dow Jones fell 0.36%. Over the same five sessions the ten-year yield fell 4 basis points and the thirty-year 7. Financials fell 1.97% and were the weakest of the eleven sectors on the day. Copper rose 1.09% and natural gas 11.50%.

§ 01 — Equities · United States

The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.45% to 27,244.28, its highest close of 2026, while the S&P 500 finished unchanged at 7,764.64 and the Dow Jones fell 0.36%. The high was a narrow one. Five of the eleven sectors fell the same day and the broad index did not move at all. The Russell 2000 rose 0.51% and is 16.44% higher on the year, close behind the Nasdaq Composite at 17.22%, which the single-session gaps hide. The volatility index closed at 14.21 against a 50-day average of 16.13.

§ 02 — S&P 500 Sector Map

Tuesday 22 Sep · sorted best to worst (1D)

Six of the eleven sectors rose. Materials led at 1.65%, staples followed at 0.99% and technology at 0.73%. Financials fell 1.97% and energy 1.09%. Two things pushed financials down: worry about what artificial intelligence does to their business, and this year’s narrowing in the gap between short and long borrowing costs. Bank lending margins depend on that gap. It has fallen from 71 basis points at the end of 2025 to 25, and from 33 over the past five sessions. Financials are 0.05% higher on the year against 13.43% for the index. Energy leads the year at 38.18% and technology follows at 36.33%. No third sector is higher than 11.42%.

Full table · sorted by YTD

§ 03 — Equities · Global

Global rows reference Tuesday 22 September closes from FMP end-of-day data. One-day moves compare with Monday 21 September and one-week moves with Tuesday 15 September. Tokyo has not traded since Friday 18 September, so the Nikkei 225 has no one-day move and its one-week column compares the Friday 18 September close with Friday 11 September. Year-to-date compares with each market’s last 2025 close, which is 30 December for the STOXX 600, the DAX, the Nikkei 225 and the KOSPI and 31 December elsewhere. Wednesday quotes from Seoul, Frankfurt and Singapore were live when this letter closed and are not used.

Seoul is 66.53% higher on the year and Taipei 65.04%, against Hong Kong 2.12% lower and Shanghai 0.42% lower. Seoul and Taipei are whole-market indices, and each has returned far more this year than the Nasdaq Composite at 17.22%. Over five sessions Seoul gained 5.89% and Taipei 5.03%, again more than the Nasdaq Composite at 4.86%. Europe rose over the same stretch, the STOXX 600 by 1.36% and the DAX 1.01%. On Tuesday every open market rose except London, which fell 0.29%. Singapore led at 0.86%. Tokyo has not traded since Friday 18 September.

§ 04 — US Treasuries

3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 6M 2Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y

The two-year yield fell 5 basis points to 4.71%. The five-year, ten-year and thirty-year all finished unchanged, at 4.83%, 4.96% and 5.29%. Over five sessions the two-year rose 4 basis points while the ten-year fell 4 and the thirty-year 7. Short government borrowing got dearer as long borrowing got cheaper. The gap between two-year and ten-year yields is 25 basis points against 33 a week ago and 71 at the end of 2025. Short-maturity yields still rise with term, 4.16% at three months and 4.26% at six against 4.71% at two years, so no rate cut is priced. The two-year sits 55 basis points above the three-month bill, which prices more tightening ahead. Tuesday’s two-year note sale cleared at the highest yield investors have demanded since 2024.

§ 05 — Credit Spreads

No credit spreads are shown in this edition. The four series Faircurve uses are published by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, and every request to that source failed from this letter’s systems on Wednesday morning. Faircurve does not substitute another provider or carry a stale figure forward, so the block is left empty rather than filled. It returns when the source does.

The four ICE BofA option-adjusted spread series this letter uses (investment grade BAMLC0A0CM, BBB BAMLC0A4CBBB, high yield BAMLH0A0HYM2, CCC & Lower BAMLH0A3HYC) are published by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Every request to that source failed from this letter’s systems on 23 September, across repeated attempts and three separate download paths. Faircurve does not substitute another source or repeat a stale figure, so no credit numbers are shown. The block returns when the source does.

§ 06 — Digital Assets

Bitcoin is 14.44% higher over five sessions, ether 15.04% and solana 22.77%. All three are still lower on the year. Bitcoin fell 0.11% on Tuesday to US$86,500.34 and remains 1.14% below its last 2025 close. It closed at US$75,584.17 on 15 September. The week has done little more than undo that fall. Ether is 6.97% lower on the year and solana 4.48%.

Levels are FMP end-of-day closes for the UTC day ended Tuesday 22 September. The one-day change compares with Monday 21 September, the one-week change with Tuesday 15 September, and year-to-date with the 31 December 2025 close. Crypto trades without a daily close, so the UTC day shown runs to 08:00 in New York and captures the overnight reaction rather than the American afternoon. Bitcoin’s equity link reflects the historical daily-return pattern, closest to the Nasdaq at about 0.5 and loosest to the Dow at about 0.4.

§ 07 — Metals & Energy

American crude fell 5.49% to US$90.52 and is 14.47% lower over five sessions. Brent fell 1.09% to US$99.25 and 8.74% over the same stretch. Brent now costs US$8.73 more than American crude, against US$4.56 on Monday and US$3.43 at the end of 2025. That discount is American. The administration said it is examining a ban on diesel exports, and a ban would keep American fuel at home and lower what American refiners pay. Copper rose 1.09% and is 6.09% higher over five sessions, so industrial demand was not marked down. Natural gas rose 11.50%, against a backdrop of low European storage and disrupted Middle East shipments.

Commodity rows are Tuesday 22 September settlements from FMP end-of-day data. One-day changes compare with Monday 21 September, one-week changes with Tuesday 15 September and year-to-date with the last 2025 settlement. The Brent premium over American crude quoted in the note is the difference between the two settlement prices on each of those dates: US$8.73 on Tuesday, US$4.56 on Monday, US$2.92 a week earlier and US$3.43 at the end of 2025.

§ 08 — Economic Calendar

US release times are Eastern. Other rows carry their local time zone. Consensus and prior figures are FMP-sourced as of this morning. The window runs six sessions rather than five so that it reaches Wednesday 30 September, which carries the August personal income and spending report and the Chinese factory surveys. No American payroll report falls inside it.

Wednesday 30 September brings the August core personal consumption expenditures price index, expected at 0.3% after 0.2%. That measure excludes energy, so a cheaper barrel reaches it only later and indirectly, through transport and other input costs. It is still the week’s most important American release. Before it, jobless claims on Thursday are expected at 201K after 196K and durable goods orders on Friday to fall 0.4% after a 1.1% rise. German manufacturing is due today at 54.0 after 54.3, and Chinese factory activity on 30 September at 50.0 after 49.8. The Reserve Bank of Australia decides on Tuesday from 4.35%.

§ 09 — Macro Themes

1 · The cheaper barrel is the American one. Over five sessions American crude fell 14.47% and Brent 8.74%. Brent now costs US$8.73 more than American crude, against US$3.43 at the end of 2025.

2 · Long yields moved very little. Over five sessions the ten-year yield fell 4 basis points and the thirty-year 7. Part of the American crude fall is a discount to the world price, and a discount is not disinflation.

3 · Copper rose while crude fell. Copper gained 1.09% on Tuesday and 6.09% over five sessions, and is 20.31% higher on the year. The metal that moves with industrial demand did not follow crude down, which points to supply rather than demand.

4 · The rate rise is recent and more is expected. The Federal Reserve raised its target range on 16 September, and one of its officials said publicly on Tuesday that a single increase may not be enough. The two-year yield sits 55 basis points above the three-month bill.

5 · Financials weakest, technology strongest. Financials fell 1.97% on Tuesday and 3.61% over five sessions. Technology rose 6.82% over the same five sessions and is 36.33% higher on the year against 0.05% for financials.

§ 10 — Analysis & Nuances

Part of this week’s crude fall is an American discount rather than a lower world price. Brent now costs US$8.73 more than American crude, against US$3.43 at the end of 2025. The administration said it is examining a ban on diesel exports, and a ban would keep American fuel at home and lower what American refiners pay. Over five sessions the ten-year yield fell 4 basis points and the thirty-year 7. Copper rose 6.09% over the same stretch, so industrial demand was not being marked down either. The risk for investors is treating the American number as the world number.

What would change the reading. Faircurve expects the gap between two-year and ten-year yields to hold between 20 and 35 basis points until the inflation report. It is 25 now. Wednesday 30 September is the test. Core personal consumption expenditures at 0.2% or lower, against the expected 0.3%, with American crude holding under US$95, should take the two-year below 4.60% and the gap above 35 basis points. A reading at the expected 0.3% is a rise on the 0.2% before it and would do the opposite. Financials are the read-across. They are 0.05% higher on the year against 13.43% for the index, and that shortfall closes only if bank lending margins widen, which needs the two-year to fall faster than the ten-year.

FAIRCURVE · MARKET PULSE · 23 SEP 2026 · Data: Financial Modeling Prep. Figures reference the Tuesday 22 September 2026 session. Credit spreads withheld: the FRED source was unreachable this run. Not investment advice. For informational use only.