Market Pulse — Friday, 12 June 2026

Global Cross-Asset Daily

President Trump called off the planned strikes on Iran and said a framework deal could be signed “over the next few days” — and a week of selling reversed in a single session. The Dow rose 930 points (+1.86%), the S&P 500 gained 1.73% to 7,393 and the Nasdaq 2.54% as the chip complex rebounded; Brent fell to $89.29 and is now down about 6% on the week. Treasuries rallied straight through the hottest PPI print since November 2022, the 10-year falling 10 basis points to 4.45% — the market is treating this inflation as a war premium that peace can refund. The ECB’s 25-basis-point hike, its first since 2023, was absorbed without complaint, and the VIX fell back below 20 ahead of next week’s Bank of Japan and Federal Reserve decisions.

§ 01 — Equities · United States

The rebound was led by the most beaten-down corners: Russell 2000 +3.02%, Nasdaq +2.54%. All four indices rose between 1.7% and 3.0%, yet the week is not fully repaired — the Nasdaq remains down 2.74% and the S&P 1.91% over five sessions. Sentiment was the fuel: AAII bulls fell to 30.4%, one of the sharpest weekly drops since the survey began in 1987, and that washed-out positioning met a peace headline. Year-to-date the board reads Russell +17.69%, Nasdaq +11.05%, S&P +8.00%, Dow +5.80%.

§ 02 — S&P 500 Sector Map

Thursday 11 Jun · sorted best to worst (1D)

Eight of eleven sectors closed green, and the three red were Wednesday’s hideouts. Technology (+3.73%), Materials (+3.27%) and Industrials (+3.24%) led; Energy (-1.94%) gave back its war bid, and Staples (-0.26%) and Real Estate (-0.16%) were sold as shelter was abandoned — the precise mirror of Wednesday’s defensive session. On the week Staples (+3.24%) is still best and Technology (-3.01%) worst. Year-to-date, Energy (+27.76%) and Technology (+27.26%) are now effectively tied at the top.

Full table · sorted by YTD

§ 03 — Equities · Global

*Asian indices reflect the latest session in progress as of about 08:00 SGT Friday 12 June, so they capture Thursday’s US rebound; figures will move through the day. European indices show Thursday’s close.

Asia is catching the rally hard this morning: the KOSPI is up 7.97%, its biggest session of the year, and the Nikkei 3.99%. Seoul’s rebound extends an extraordinary run — +94.51% year-to-date — while Tokyo rallies into a Bank of Japan meeting expected to lift rates to a 31-year high on Tuesday. Taiwan (-0.18%) and Hong Kong (-0.65%) lag the bounce. Europe closed Thursday modestly higher (STOXX 600 +0.54%), taking the ECB’s first hike since 2023 in stride.

§ 04 — US Treasuries

3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 6M 2Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y

A bull move across the whole curve — on a day wholesale inflation printed its hottest since November 2022. The 2-year fell 8 basis points to 4.05%, the 10-year 10 to 4.45% and the 30-year 8 to 4.95%, a slight bull-flattening that put 2s10s near 40 basis points and left 2s30s at 90. The week’s selloff has fully round-tripped: the 10-year sits just 2 basis points below where it stood five sessions ago. Duration rallying through a hot PPI says the bond market prices the Iran premium — not policy — as the marginal driver of inflation from here.

§ 05 — Credit Spreads

ICE BofA option-adjusted spreads via the FRED keyed API (IG BAMLC0A0CM, BBB BAMLC0A4CBBB, HY BAMLH0A0HYM2, CCC & Lower BAMLH0A3HYC), as of Wednesday 10 June — the series runs about one business day behind the equity close, so it captures Wednesday’s selloff but not Thursday’s rebound. Widening (positive) shown red, tightening green.

Credit’s read stops at Wednesday — it captures the selloff, not the relief. Investment grade sat at 75 basis points and high yield at 280, both barely changed on the week, while CCC and lower widened 10 on the week to 957, now 72 wider on the year. The bifurcation is intact: top-quality spreads near their tights, the lowest tier quietly bleeding. Friday’s print will show whether Thursday’s equity relief reached the bottom of the capital structure — it usually arrives there last.

§ 06 — Digital Assets

Crypto led the turn rather than lagging it. Bitcoin rose 3.19% to about $63,400, Ethereum 2.95% and Solana 5.62%, and all three are up 4% to 5% on the week — the first green week in over a month. That fits the correlation map: Bitcoin trades tightest to the Nasdaq, and the Nasdaq just had its best day in weeks. The damage remains deep, with the majors still 28% to 46% lower year-to-date.

The bull case now has a named catalyst besides beta. Washington’s CLARITY Act push — with Senate sponsors talking up tokenisation flows in the trillions — offers a structural story, while the bear case is unchanged: the SpaceX listing at a $1.75 trillion valuation is pulling speculative capital toward the IPO calendar, and spot-ETF flows have yet to turn convincingly. We treat this bounce as high-beta relief until the flow data says otherwise.

Spot levels via FMP (Friday 12 June, 24-hour change). Policy and market-structure context from 11 June reporting (CNBC, Fox Business, Seeking Alpha) and Faircurve research; correlation figures are rolling estimates, not point-in-time readings.

§ 07 — Metals & Energy

The war premium is being refunded. Brent fell 1.21% to $89.29 and WTI to $86.57, leaving both down 6% to 7% on the week as a framework deal raised the prospect of the Strait of Hormuz — transit for a fifth of the world’s oil — reopening. The metals tell the other half of the story: gold bounced 2.66% to $4,224 and silver 5.13% as yields fell, recovering a fraction of their 6% and 9% weekly drawdowns. We note Tehran has publicly pushed back and Thursday itself began with a threat to seize Kharg Island — the headline risk in crude is symmetric, in both directions, until something is signed.

§ 08 — Economic Calendar

Times in US Eastern. Consensus and priors are FMP-sourced. The table covers high-impact releases over the next five trading sessions; the May jobs report printed last Friday.

Two central banks in five days, with the bond market already declaring the outcome benign. Michigan sentiment closes this week; Tuesday brings the Bank of Japan, expected to hike to 1.00%, a 31-year high; Wednesday pairs UK CPI with the FOMC, where a hold at 3.75% is consensus and the projections are the real event. The data gives both sides ammunition — PPI at its hottest since 2022 argues for the hawks, jobless claims at a four-and-a-half-month high for the doves. An Iran signature before Wednesday would do more for the inflation outlook than anything in the statement.

§ 09 — Macro Themes

1 · One headline unwound a week of selling. Oil down 6% on the week, equities up 1.7% to 3.0% in a session, the 10-year 10 basis points lower — the speed of the reversal says asset prices were carrying a war premium, not a growth downgrade. What a headline gives, a headline can take away: Tehran has not signed, and Thursday opened with a threat to seize Kharg Island before it closed on peace.

2 · Energy inflation is forcing hawkishness everywhere except Washington. The ECB hiked for the first time since 2023 citing the Iran war; the BoJ is expected at a 31-year high on Tuesday; the Fed is expected to hold — because the bond market has decided peace will do the Fed’s work. That is a divergence trade resting entirely on a diplomatic outcome.

3 · The washout was the setup. AAII bulls at 30.4% — one of the sharpest weekly drops since 1987 — plus a VIX above 22 left positioning so light that a single de-escalation headline produced the Dow’s best session of the year. Rallies built on positioning rather than earnings travel fast and exhaust fast.

§ 10 — Analysis & Nuances

The market is pricing inflation as geopolitics, not economics. A 10-basis-point duration rally through the hottest PPI since November 2022 only reconciles one way: the bond market expects the energy premium to refund itself via the deal, taking the headline prints down with it. That makes Wednesday’s FOMC easier — but it concentrates the entire cross-asset complex on a single signature in Tehran. The intraday whiplash within Thursday — Kharg Island threat by morning, stand-down by afternoon — is the clearest evidence that this risk is symmetric and binary.

Watch what did not confirm. Credit’s Wednesday print showed CCC spreads 10 wider on the week at 957 even as quality held; jobless claims sit at a four-and-a-half-month high; and Thursday’s leadership — Russell +3.02%, KOSPI +7.97%, Solana +5.62% — is the signature of a positioning squeeze, not fresh conviction. A relief rally into a live dot plot with wholesale inflation running hot is not an all-clear. We would let the most crowded AI names prove themselves into Wednesday rather than chase strength built on a deal that does not yet exist.

FAIRCURVE · MARKET PULSE · 12 JUN 2026 · Data via Financial Modeling Prep MCP (quote / price-change, treasury-rates, economics calendar, news) and FRED (ICE BofA credit-spread OAS series, keyed API). US equities, sectors and Treasuries reference the Thursday 11 June 2026 close (the most recent completed US session); European indices also reference Thursday’s close. Asian equities, crypto and commodities reflect the latest session in progress as of about 08:00 SGT Friday 12 June, so those figures will move through the day. One-week changes use the close five trading days earlier; year-to-date uses each market’s 31 December 2025 close. UST yields are the FMP treasury-rates series (Thursday 11 June close). Credit spreads are FRED ICE BofA OAS as of Wednesday 10 June, about one business day behind the equity close, so they capture Wednesday’s selloff but not Thursday’s rebound. Calendar times US Eastern. Singapore time zone. Not investment advice; for informational use only.