Market Pulse — Friday, 21 August 2026

Global Cross-Asset Daily

Walmart beat earnings estimates, raised its full-year outlook, and fell 9.15%, the largest fall in the Dow, on the slowest US comparable-sales growth it has reported since 2020. The S&P 500 lost 0.85% and the VIX rose 7.52% to 16.01. Yields from five years out rose 3 to 5 basis points, taking back part of Wednesday’s buyback fall. The KOSPI rose 5.89%, its largest daily gain since 31 July, closing back above its 6,813.34 floor. Bitcoin rose 6.18% to US$73,585.84, its highest close since late May. Brent added 2.36% to US$93.78, a fourth consecutive close above US$90.

§ 01 — Equities · United States

The S&P 500 fell 0.85% to 7,642.21, a fourth decline in five sessions, now 2.01% below its 13 August record. The Russell 2000 lost 1.34%, the Dow 1.32% and the Nasdaq 1.00%. Walmart’s 9.15% fall was the largest in the Dow, though Goldman Sachs, down US$19.70, took more points off the price-weighted average. Home Depot lost 2.85% and Amazon 2.16%. The economic data was strong. The Philadelphia Fed factory index came in at 47.4 against 25.0 expected, and weekly jobless claims fell to 206,000. The VIX closed back above its end-2025 level.

§ 02 — S&P 500 Sector Map

Thursday 20 Aug · sorted best to worst (1D)

Two sectors closed higher and nine fell. Energy added 0.27% and real estate 0.20%. Health care fell 1.87%, the day’s worst, as Moderna gave back 23.55% after nearly tripling on Wednesday. Consumer discretionary lost 1.61% and staples 1.41%, the two sectors most exposed to Walmart’s reading of its shoppers. On the week only energy, up 4.41%, health care and materials rose. For 2026 energy leads at 42.59% against technology’s 27.18%, with discretionary and communications still the two negative sectors.

Full table · sorted by YTD

§ 03 — Equities · Global

All figures reference Thursday 20 August closes from FMP end-of-day data. One-week moves compare with Thursday 13 August, and year-to-date with each market’s last 2025 close. Asian sessions closed before Walmart’s results and the US yield rise on Thursday. Friday’s live Asian session is not included in this table.

The KOSPI rose 5.89% to 6,852.58, its largest daily gain since 31 July, and closed back above the 6,813.34 level it broke on Wednesday. Samsung rose 9.49% and SK hynix 12.73%. The gain returned Seoul to the top of this table for 2026, at 62.61% against Taipei’s 55.14%. The Nikkei rose 1.36% after Wednesday’s 3.16% fall. Europe closed flat to lower, the CAC down 0.57% and the FTSE up 0.04%. Seoul’s close came half a day before Walmart’s results and the US yield rise, so Friday’s session is the first to price them.

§ 04 — US Treasuries

3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 6M 2Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y

Wednesday’s buyback fall in long yields was half undone in a day. The 30-year rose 4 basis points to 5.23%, retracing four of Wednesday’s nine. The 10-year rose 4 to 4.69% and the 5-year 4 to 4.39%. Yields inside three years barely moved. The 2-year has now held 4.19% for four sessions, through Target, the minutes, Walmart and Thursday’s strong data. An auction of 30-year inflation-protected debt sold at a yield of 2.973%, half a point above the prior auction’s 2.473%. At 5.23% the 30-year sits between the two lines this letter set, 5.28% reading the buyback effect as fading and 5.20% held through Friday as sticking. Short-maturity yields still slope upward. Nothing in the week has put a rate cut into prices.

§ 05 — Credit Spreads

Credit’s newest reading covers the buyback day, and the tiers split. On Wednesday investment grade narrowed 1 basis point to 81 and high yield 2 to 273. The weakest tier widened 3 to 1,030, its widest since 31 July. Relief that reaches strong borrowers and misses the weakest is rate relief, not credit relief. The 5-year yield credit prices from rose 4 basis points on Thursday.

Credit spreads are FRED ICE BofA option-adjusted spreads (IG BAMLC0A0CM, BBB BAMLC0A4CBBB, HY BAMLH0A0HYM2, CCC & Lower BAMLH0A3HYC) as of the Wednesday 19 August close, the latest observation FRED has published, so this table runs one session behind the rest of this letter and covers the day of the Treasury buyback announcement. One-day changes reference the Tuesday 18 August close, one-week changes the Wednesday 12 August close, and year-to-date the last 2025 observation. Widening (positive basis points) reads as stress. Narrowing reads as relief.

§ 06 — Digital Assets

Bitcoin rose 6.18% to US$73,585.84, its highest close since late May and a 13.77% gain over three sessions. The two closes above US$69,000 this letter asked for arrived, confirming the August break. Ether rose 3.80% to US$2,337.29, its highest close since mid-May. Solana added 3.11%. The gains came on a day the Nasdaq fell 1.00% and long yields rose, a split from the index bitcoin usually tracks closest. The drivers are political. The president pressed for crypto legislation ahead of a mid-September deadline, and the Treasury said its buybacks can grow. Bitcoin remains down 15.90% for 2026.

Bitcoin’s equity link reflects the historical daily-return pattern, closest to the Nasdaq at about 0.5 and loosest to the Dow at about 0.4. Levels are FMP end-of-day closes for the UTC day ended Thursday 20 August. Daily moves compare with Wednesday, weekly with Thursday 13 August, year-to-date with the 31 December 2025 close. FMP revised both Wednesday’s and Thursday’s closes during this run, so exact levels may still move a fraction. Daily figures use the latest revision.

§ 07 — Metals & Energy

Brent rose 2.36% to US$93.78, a fourth consecutive close above US$90 and its highest since 24 July. The president threatened Iran with economic isolation, extending the supply risk that the UAE trade halt opened on Wednesday. WTI rose 1.17%. Both benchmarks are up more than 51% for 2026. Silver rose 3.46%, well ahead of gold’s 0.57%, on a day the 2-year yield and the dollar were flat. Natural gas fell 2.88%.

§ 08 — Economic Calendar

US release times are Eastern. Japan’s July inflation was released Friday morning Tokyo time and is shown with its actual. The Jackson Hole symposium begins Thursday 27 August. PMI and PCE consensus figures are FMP-sourced, as are earnings timing and estimates (Nvidia after Wednesday’s close, consensus US$2.09 on revenue of about US$92bn).

Nvidia reports Wednesday evening and July core PCE prices arrive the same morning, making 26 August the week’s test. Consensus is US$2.09 per share on revenue of about US$92 billion, and 0.2% on the month for core PCE. Flash PMIs are due today, US consumer confidence Tuesday, and the Bank of Korea decides Thursday. Japan’s July inflation, released this morning, came in at 1.9% against 1.7% expected, lifted by energy.

§ 09 — Macro Themes

1 · Walmart’s sales message counted for more than its profit. A company can beat estimates and still reprice the whole consumer story. Softer traffic, drug-price pressure on pharmacy revenue and shoppers trading down pushed discretionary and staples lower together, a sign the market read the report as being about the customer, not the company.

2 · Oil has moved from the energy sector into consumer and inflation data. Walmart said higher energy costs are cutting what its shoppers spend. Japan’s inflation beat expectations this morning on energy. Wednesday’s July core PCE reading shows whether US prices outside energy are catching it.

3 · Korea regained its 2026 lead in one session. The 5.89% rise put Seoul back ahead of Taipei for the year, at 62.61% against 55.14%, one day after the index traded below its August floor. Friday’s close settles whether the break was an accident or a warning.

4 · Bitcoin rose with yields and against equities. Its closest historical pair is the Nasdaq, at about 0.5 daily correlation. On Thursday it gained 6.18% while the Nasdaq fell 1.00% and long yields rose. Washington policy, not risk appetite, is setting its price this week.

§ 10 — Analysis & Nuances

Thursday priced the same economy three ways, and the household came last. The Philadelphia Fed survey at 47.4 and claims at 206,000 said activity is firm. Walmart said the customer is not. Sales growth was its slowest since 2020, traffic softened, and shoppers are trading down as energy costs rise. The company will spend close to US$3 billion of tariff refunds on price cuts, which supports volume and presses margins across retail. Equities priced Walmart. Yields priced the firm data and the fading of Wednesday’s buyback effect, with the 30-year inflation-protected auction clearing half a point above the prior one. The 2-year, unchanged at 4.19% for a fourth session, priced neither, so rate expectations moved on none of it. The index therefore fell for two separate reasons at once, an earnings signal from the consumer and a rate path that strong factory data keeps from easing.

Scorecard. The bitcoin confirmation asked for on Wednesday arrived, two closes above US$69,000, and the break stands. The KOSPI floor test rests on Friday’s close against 6,813.34. The 30-year, at 5.23%, sits between the 5.28% fading line and the 5.20% sticking line, unresolved. New tests this week: Nvidia’s c.US$92 billion consensus and core PCE at 0.2%, both Wednesday. The Bank of Korea follows Thursday, where a hold at 2.75% would read the Seoul crash as a market event, not an economic one.

FAIRCURVE · MARKET PULSE · 21 AUG 2026 · Data: Financial Modeling Prep and FRED (ICE BofA credit spreads). All figures reference the Thursday 20 August 2026 session unless stated. Not investment advice. For informational use only.