Market Pulse — Friday, 3 July 2026

Global Cross-Asset Daily

Weak jobs data lifted most of the market; technology fell again. June payrolls came in at 57K against a c. 110K consensus, released a day early for the holiday. Wages rose 3.5% and unemployment fell to 4.2%. That was soft enough to remove the risk of a near-term rate hike, but not weak enough to raise recession fears. The Dow rose 1.14% to a record 52,900.07 and eight of eleven sectors gained, led by Health Care (+2.63%) and Utilities (+2.21%). Technology fell 2.71% on a second day of selling in memory-chip stocks, and Korea’s KOSPI dropped 7.89%. Taiwan fell just 0.58% — a sign the selloff is about memory chips, not the wider AI build-out. US markets are closed Friday.

§ 01 — Equities · United States

A record Dow on a weak jobs day shows the rally is broadening. The Dow rose 1.14% to 52,900.07 while the Nasdaq fell 0.87%. The S&P 500 closed nearly flat at -0.07% because gains across most of the market offset the fall in technology. All four indices are higher on the week — the Nasdaq up 2.82%, the S&P 2.25%, the Dow 2.12% — and the Russell 2000 still leads for the year at +20.72%. We read this as healthy: the market advanced without its usual leaders, which makes the rally less dependent on one sector.

§ 02 — S&P 500 Sector Map

Thursday 2 Jul · sorted best to worst (1D)

The year’s laggards led; the year’s leader fell. Health Care (+2.63%), Utilities (+2.21%), Staples (+2.03%), Materials (+1.94%) and Financials (+1.53%) topped the day. Health Care, Utilities and Financials all sit in the bottom half of the year-to-date rankings. Technology (-2.71%) was the day’s worst but remains the year’s best at +25.44%. Eight of eleven sectors rose; Communications (-0.13%) and Consumer Discretionary (-0.82%) also fell, and they are the only two sectors down for the year. We read this as investors trimming crowded positions rather than reacting to any change in fundamentals — and Monday’s ISM services report is the first release that could swing it back.

Full table · sorted by YTD

§ 03 — Equities · Global

All indices reference the Thursday 2 July close via the FMP end-of-day series; Asian markets had finished their Thursday sessions before the US payrolls release, Europe closed after it. Hong Kong’s daily move compares with its Tuesday 30 June close because the market was shut Wednesday for the SAR Establishment Day holiday. One-week moves compare with the close five sessions earlier on each market’s own calendar; year-to-date uses each market’s last 2025 close.

Korea took the worst of the memory-chip selloff. The KOSPI fell 7.89% on Thursday and 14.36% for the week. Samsung and SK Hynix dominate the index, so the oversupply fears that hit Micron, SanDisk and Seagate in the US hit Korea hardest. Even after the fall, the KOSPI is up 81.48% this year. Taiwan, which makes processors rather than memory, fell only 0.58% and is up 61.39% for the year. Japan lost 2.47% and Shanghai 2.03%. Europe closed after the US jobs data and rallied — the DAX rose 2.22%, the FTSE 1.67%, the CAC 1.65% — and Singapore added 1.08%. Korea trades Friday while the US is closed; we are watching whether the selling there has run its course.

§ 04 — US Treasuries

3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 6M 2Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y

Short-term yields fell on the jobs data; long-term yields did not. The 2-year yield fell 3 basis points to 4.14% as the market priced out a near-term rate hike. The 10-year rose 1 basis point to 4.49% and the 30-year 1 to 4.98%, leaving the gap between 2-year and 10-year yields at 35 basis points. On the week every maturity rose, the 30-year most at +12 basis points. On the year the 2-year is up 67 basis points against 14 for the 30-year. That long-term yields would not fall even on soft jobs data suggests investors are demanding extra compensation for heavy bond supply and the political pressure on the Fed — not just weighing the next policy decision. Higher long yields with lower short yields also help bank margins, part of why Financials rose 1.53%.

§ 05 — Credit Spreads

Credit markets stayed calm. Investment-grade spreads held at 76 basis points, BBB tightened 1 to 94 and high yield tightened 1 to 274 — despite the swings in equities and the fall in Korea. The exception is the riskiest tier: CCC and lower, at 968, is 4 basis points wider on the week and 83 wider this year, the only tier wider than where it started 2026. That pattern says the stress is confined to the weakest borrowers and is not spreading. If single-B spreads begin widening alongside CCC, we would change that view.

Credit spreads are FRED ICE BofA option-adjusted spreads (IG BAMLC0A0CM, BBB BAMLC0A4CBBB, HY BAMLH0A0HYM2, CCC & Lower BAMLH0A3HYC) as of the 1 July close, one session behind the equity data. Widening (positive bp) reads as stress.

§ 06 — Digital Assets

Bitcoin bounced while technology fell. Bitcoin rose 2.35% to $61,366, recovering from the year’s low set midweek; Ether gained 5.58% and Solana 4.14%. All three remain deeply negative for the year — Bitcoin is down 29.86%. The buyers were identifiable: SharpLink resumed buying Ether after an eight-week pause and Metaplanet added to its Bitcoin holdings. Against that, MicroStrategy has said it may sell Bitcoin to fund preferred dividends, and money is still leaving the spot exchange-traded funds. We would not treat one good day as a turn until those fund flows improve.

Bitcoin’s equity correlation reflects the historical daily-return pattern — closest to the Nasdaq at about 0.5 and loosest to the Dow at about 0.4. Spot levels are FMP quote fields at the run-time snapshot; daily, weekly and year-to-date moves are the FMP price-change series. Crypto trades continuously, so its daily change covers a different window from the equity close. Treasury-purchase and fund-flow context is from press reporting, not price data.

§ 07 — Metals & Energy

Commodities supported the benign inflation picture. WTI eased 0.41% to $68.42 and Brent 0.32% to $71.57; both are down more than 4% on the week as Gulf supply returns, though crude is still the strongest commodity this year, WTI up 19.14%. Gold rose 0.36% to $4,140.60 and silver 0.79% on the softer rate outlook. Copper was little changed at +0.20%, which suggests the growth picture has not really moved. Lower oil and steady wages make it easier for the Fed to stay patient — and leave Monday’s ISM services prices-paid reading as the main thing that could upset that.

§ 08 — Economic Calendar

US release times Eastern; overseas releases shown in local-market timing. Consensus and priors are FMP-sourced. The June jobs report has been released; US markets are closed Friday 3 July, and Monday's ISM services report and Wednesday's Fed minutes are the coming week's main events.

Two releases will test this rotation. US markets are closed Friday for Independence Day. Monday brings ISM services — consensus c. 54.0 after 54.5 — where the prices-paid component, 71.3 last month, matters most: if it rises, rate-hike worries return and the new defensive leadership would likely give back its gains first. Wednesday’s minutes from the June Fed meeting will show how close the committee came to hiking before the jobs data softened. China’s June CPI (c. 1.2%) follows Thursday.

§ 09 — Macro Themes

1 · The jobs report was weak in a way markets liked. Payrolls of 57K against c. 110K expected removed the near-term rate-hike risk without raising recession fears — jobless claims stayed low and wages rose 3.5%. One caveat: unemployment fell to 4.2% mainly because people left the labor force — participation dropped to 61.5%, a post-pandemic low. A shrinking workforce can mean wage pressure later, which is likely one reason long-term yields did not fall.

2 · The AI selloff is about memory chips, not AI demand. The damage is concentrated in memory and storage makers — Micron, SanDisk and Seagate in the US, Samsung and SK Hynix in Korea — on fears of oversupply. Taiwan’s chipmakers, which make processors, barely moved: Korea fell 7.89%, Taiwan 0.58%. We are watching that gap — if Taiwan starts falling too, the problem is bigger than memory.

3 · Political pressure on the Fed is showing up in long-term yields. Hours after jobs data that argued for patience, the President called the Fed hostile and repeated his intention to remove a sitting governor. Long-term yields rose on a day soft data said they should fall — the 30-year is up 12 basis points on the week. We think investors are charging extra to hold long bonds while the Fed’s independence is in question, and expect that premium to persist.

§ 10 — Analysis & Nuances

Thursday looked like positioning, not a change in fundamentals. The year’s losers led and the year’s winners fell — across sectors (Health Care and Utilities up, Technology down), countries (Korea, up 81.48% this year, fell hardest; Hong Kong, down 10.05%, rose) and assets (Bitcoin, down 29.86%, bounced). Company fundamentals rarely reverse in one day; crowded positions do. The supporting evidence points the same way: demand for protection on technology stocks is at multi-year highs, bullish sentiment readings have dropped sharply, and credit spreads — the market that prices actual default risk — did not move. We read this as money rotating within the market, not leaving it.

Stay invested, but watch two things. We would participate in the broadening — defensives and financials have the data, the yield curve and credit behind them — and fund purchases from the crowded AI names rather than the market as a whole. First, Monday’s ISM prices-paid reading: if it rises from 71.3, the rate relief reverses and the defensive leaders suffer first. Second, Korea’s Friday session: if it stabilises, the memory selloff is probably near its end; if not, it has further to run.

FAIRCURVE · MARKET PULSE · 03 JUL 2026 · Data via Financial Modeling Prep MCP (quote / price-change, end-of-day index charts, treasury-rates, economics calendar, news) and FRED (ICE BofA OAS credit spreads). US equities and sectors reference the Thursday 2 July 2026 session via the FMP price-change series (1D / five-day / year-to-date); global indices use FMP end-of-day closes for Thursday 2 July. Hong Kong’s daily move compares with Tuesday 30 June because the market was closed Wednesday for a public holiday. One-week changes use the five-session window; year-to-date uses each market’s last 2025 close. UST yields are the FMP treasury-rates series (Thursday 2 July). Credit spreads are FRED ICE BofA OAS as of the 1 July close, one session behind the equity data. Crypto and commodity levels reflect the run-time snapshot. US calendar times Eastern; overseas releases in local timing. Singapore time zone. Not investment advice; for informational use only.