Market Pulse — Monday, 10 August 2026

Global Cross-Asset Daily

An outright payrolls decline produced a record close, and the composition explains why. July payrolls fell 23,000 against an 80,000 consensus. The fall was government jobs, down 53,000; private employers added 30,000. Hourly earnings rose 0.1% on the month and 3.2% on the year, both below forecast. The market read less pressure for rate rises, not recession. Two-year yields fell 6 basis points to 4.19%, the S&P 500 rose 0.62% to 7,757.64, its highest close of 2026, gold rose 2.33%, and the VIX fell to 14.90. Wednesday’s July inflation report, expected at 3.4%, decides whether that reading survives.

§ 01 — Equities · United States

Most of the week’s gain was in place before the payrolls report. Monday added 1.48% and Tuesday 1.79% on technology earnings, Wednesday and Thursday slipped 0.17% and 0.18%, and Friday added 0.62%. Friday’s record close of 7,757.64 passed Tuesday’s 7,736.52 while net short positions in S&P 500 futures deepened by 10,100 contracts to 27,300 in the week’s data, measured as of Tuesday. Next week’s report shows whether the record changed those positions. The Nasdaq rose 1.30% to 26,690.62, its highest close since 4 June and still 1.49% below its 2 June peak. The Dow rose 0.28% to 54,036.93, under Wednesday’s 54,349.12 record. The Russell 2000 rose 1.10% and leads the four at 22.26% for the year.

§ 02 — S&P 500 Sector Map

Friday 07 Aug · sorted best to worst (1D)

Technology’s 8.02% week leads the sectors; Friday’s moves follow the payrolls result. Chip earnings drove the weekly gain: Nvidia rose 13.29%, Micron 11.60% and Broadcom 11.28% over the five sessions. On Friday eight of eleven sectors rose and two fell, and the two that fell explain the day. Financials slipped 0.36% as yields fell. Energy fell 1.13% against the week’s oil decline and its 2.03% weekly fall is the weakest. Consumer discretionary led Friday at 1.49%, technology added 1.42% and materials 1.32%; consumer staples closed flat.

Full table · sorted by YTD

§ 03 — Equities · Global

All figures reference Friday 7 August closes computed from FMP end-of-day data. One-day moves compare with the Thursday 6 August close, one-week moves with the Friday 31 July close, and year-to-date with each market’s last 2025 close. Asian markets closed before Friday’s US payrolls release; Europe closed after it. Monday’s live Asian levels are excluded from all tables.

Seoul’s wide week ended 1.32 points from where it began. The KOSPI ran from 6,257.45 on Monday to 6,598.26 on Wednesday, then closed Friday at 6,258.77, just above the line this letter is watching. The table’s 5.10% weekly fall measures from the prior Friday’s 6,595.45 instead. Asian markets closed before the payrolls release; Europe closed after it: the DAX rose 0.75% and the STOXX 600 0.31%. Shanghai rose 1.02% after July exports grew 23.9% against a 22.2% forecast. Taipei slipped 0.38% as Taiwan’s export growth slowed to 32.9% against 40.7% expected.

§ 04 — US Treasuries

3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 6M 2Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y

Yields fell at every maturity, most at the maturities most sensitive to the policy rate. The two-year fell 6 basis points to 4.19%, the five-year 5 to 4.35%, the ten-year 4 to 4.65% and the thirty-year 3 to 5.19%. On the week the two-year is 9 basis points lower and the ten-year 10 lower. Friday removed part of the extra yield held against a further rate rise. Three-month bills still yield less than one-year notes, and one-year less than two-year, so nothing at the short maturities prices a cut. The two-year now sits 9 basis points below the 4.28% level in Wednesday’s test, with one of its two conditions met. The two-year and thirty-year sit 100 basis points apart, from 97 on Thursday.

§ 05 — Credit Spreads

Friday’s spread reading, once published, is the first measured after the payrolls report. The FRED series runs a session behind, so the latest reading is Thursday’s: CCC and lower spreads narrowed 6 basis points to 1,017 after Wednesday’s 4-point widening. High yield narrowed 4 to 271 and is 13 basis points tighter on the week; investment grade held at 78 and BBB sits at 97. In Friday’s number, narrowing would match the equity reading of the jobs report; widening would read it as a hiring stall.

Credit spreads are FRED ICE BofA option-adjusted spreads (IG BAMLC0A0CM, BBB BAMLC0A4CBBB, HY BAMLH0A0HYM2, CCC & Lower BAMLH0A3HYC) as of the Thursday 6 August close, the latest observation FRED has published, so this table runs one session behind the rest of this letter. One-day changes reference the Wednesday 5 August close, one-week changes the Thursday 30 July close, and year-to-date the last 2025 observation. Widening (positive basis points) reads as stress; narrowing reads as relief.

§ 06 — Digital Assets

Money returned to the crypto funds, and the coin still lagged the stocks. US spot bitcoin and ether funds reported combined inflows of US$1.1bn last week, the largest since April; US$853m went to the bitcoin funds. Bitcoin still rose less than the Nasdaq on Friday, 0.97% to US$64,891.61 against 1.30%, and remains 25.84% lower for the year. Ether rose 0.56% to US$1,913.15 and Solana 1.38% to US$73.63.

Bitcoin’s equity link reflects the historical daily-return pattern, closest to the Nasdaq at about 0.5 and loosest to the Dow at about 0.4. Crypto trades continuously; levels shown are FMP end-of-day closes for Friday 7 August. Daily moves compare with the Thursday 6 August close, weekly moves with the Friday 31 July close, and year-to-date with the 31 December 2025 close.

§ 07 — Metals & Energy

Gold ended the week above its end-2025 level; oil ended it failing this letter’s test. Gold rose 2.33% to US$4,399.70 and 7.13% on the week, its only close this week above that level, after sitting 0.96% below it on Thursday. Speculators added 15,500 net long gold futures contracts, taking the total to 197,600 in Friday’s weekly data. Silver rose 3.07% to US$63.50. Brent rose 1.29% to US$83.55 and WTI 1.15% to US$78.18, but Brent still fell 4.98% on the week and closed 22 cents short of the US$83.77 line. Copper eased 1.76%; natural gas rose 0.83%.

§ 08 — Economic Calendar

US release times Eastern; overseas releases shown in local-market timing. Consensus and priors are FMP-sourced. Monday 10 August has no major release in the economies this letter covers. Wednesday carries the July consumer price report and a ten-year auction; July producer prices and a thirty-year auction follow on Thursday, with retail sales and consumer sentiment on Friday.

Prices report Wednesday and Thursday; spending reports Friday. July consumer prices are expected at 3.4% on the year, down from 3.5%, with core at 2.5% and the monthly rate at 0.1% after June’s 0.4% fall. Producer prices follow Thursday at a 5.0% consensus, from 5.5%. The Treasury sells ten-year notes a few hours after Wednesday’s inflation report, a same-day demand test; thirty-year bonds follow Thursday. Retail sales and consumer sentiment close the week on Friday.

§ 09 — Macro Themes

1 · The payrolls miss was narrower than its headline. The decline sat in government payrolls while private employers added as many workers as in June. Unemployment fell to 4.1% only because participation fell. Wage growth of 3.2% on the year is what turned a soft report into a rally.

2 · The rally prices which report the Fed answers. Friday’s buyers treated the labour report as the one that binds. Consumer prices report Wednesday; a firm print revives the September rate-rise case and reverses Friday’s fall in short-maturity yields.

3 · The weekend’s supply news landed after the price. Iran demanded an American withdrawal on Saturday, the UAE reported a missile strike on a ship, and a drone set a Saudi refinery alight on Sunday. Thursday’s transit-plan headline had lifted Brent 3.83% in a session; the weekend’s three headlines moved futures almost nothing.

4 · Gold is the protection buyers chose. Gold rose 7.13% on the week while the VIX fell to 14.90. Speculators added 15,500 net long futures contracts. Investors are paying for inflation protection while leaving equity protection cheap.

§ 10 — Analysis & Nuances

Friday’s record is a position taken ahead of the evidence. The market bought the view that a government-led payrolls fall with cooling wages ends the case for further rate rises. Two-year yields at 4.19%, the record close, gold and the VIX all fit that view; none of them reflects Wednesday’s inflation report yet. Wednesday’s letter set the test: it armed on the payrolls miss and arms fully if July inflation prints 3.4% or higher, the consensus itself. An in-line print therefore leaves the decision to the two-year close. A close above 4.28% after the report reads as the rate-rise argument winning. A fall below 4.10% reads as the hiring stall winning. Anything between is no reading, and a 3.3% or lower print leaves Friday’s position standing without the test.

Scorecard. The Brent test failed by 22 cents: Friday’s close reached US$83.55 against the US$83.77 line, recorded before the weekend’s supply headlines. Seoul closed 1.32 points above the 6,257.45 line, a hold too thin to score; the test runs through this week. One new marker: gold closing this Friday above its end-2025 level of US$4,341.10 keeps the inflation-protection story; a fall back below it reads last week’s jump as a one-day payrolls trade.

FAIRCURVE · MARKET PULSE · 10 AUG 2026 · Data: Financial Modeling Prep and FRED (ICE BofA credit spreads). All figures reference the Friday 7 August 2026 session unless stated. Not investment advice; for informational use only.