Market Pulse — Monday, 3 August 2026

Global Cross-Asset Daily

The record did not survive the weekend. The KOSPI rose 17.91% on Friday, its largest one-day gain ever, as foreign investors bought a record 7.2 trillion won and local retail investors sold a record 8.27 trillion. It is 4.17% lower this morning at 6,320.38. Friday still left the index 1.42% down on the week and 7.07% below its 23 July level. In the United States the S&P 500 rose 0.70% with four of eleven sectors higher, Amazon up 15.32% and Apple down 7.35%.

§ 01 — Equities · United States

The index rose and most of the market did not. The S&P 500 gained 0.70% to 7,489.72 and the Nasdaq 1.00% to 25,373.85, while the Russell 2000 fell 0.50%. Amazon rose 15.32%, Alphabet 6.73%, Meta 3.28%, Microsoft 3.02% and Nvidia 2.93%, and Apple fell 7.35%. On the week the S&P 500 added 0.34% and smaller companies lost 0.45%, though they lead the year at 18.11% against 9.41%.

§ 02 — S&P 500 Sector Map

Friday 31 Jul · sorted best to worst (1D)

Four of eleven sectors rose. Consumer discretionary gained 3.29%, communication services 1.56%, energy 1.00% and industrials 0.81%. Seven fell: materials 2.34%, utilities 0.69%, health care 0.59%, real estate 0.51%, staples 0.49%, technology 0.22% and financials 0.11%. Technology fell on a day the Nasdaq rose 1.00%, because of Apple. Energy leads the year at 33.19%. Communication services and consumer discretionary, 8.05% and 2.78% lower, are the only sectors down for the year.

Full table · sorted by YTD

§ 03 — Equities · Global

All figures reference Friday 31 July closes computed from FMP end-of-day data. One-day moves compare with the Thursday 30 July close, one-week moves with the Friday 24 July close, and year-to-date with each market’s last 2025 close (Frankfurt, Tokyo, Seoul and the STOXX 600: 30 December, their final 2025 session). Asian and European markets closed before Friday’s US session, so their one-day moves reflect Thursday’s Wall Street result. Every quoted market is verified this run.

Three Asian markets posted very large gains and none recovered its week. Seoul rose 17.91%, Taipei 7.98% and Tokyo 4.03%. On the week they are 1.42%, 1.23% and 0.39% lower. Measured from 23 July, before the selling began, Seoul is still 7.07% below, Taipei 3.86% and Tokyo 3.10%. Samsung Electronics rose 26.81% and SK Hynix 29.95%, its daily limit. In live trading this morning Seoul is 4.17% lower and Tokyo 2.20% lower. Hong Kong gained 3.69% last week, the best of the ten shown. The DAX added 2.49% on the week and the STOXX 600 0.73%.

§ 04 — US Treasuries

3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 6M 2Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y

Short and long yields moved apart last week. The two-year closed at 4.28%, the five-year 4.45%, the ten-year 4.75% and the thirty-year 5.27%. On the day they rose 5, 7, 7 and 6 basis points. Over the week the two-year fell 5 basis points while the thirty-year rose 11, widening the gap between them from 83 to 99 basis points. For the year the two-year is 81 basis points higher and the thirty-year 43, so that same gap has narrowed from 137 basis points at the end of 2025. Investors are still paid more to lend for two years than for three months, 4.28% against 3.83%, which is not what a market expecting rate cuts looks like.

§ 05 — Credit Spreads

The lowest-rated bonds narrowed 7 basis points after widening 44. Spreads on CCC and lower rated bonds widened in each of the ten sessions to 29 July, from 969 to 1,013 basis points, then narrowed 7 on Thursday. That returns a sixth of the run, and two single days inside the run were larger, at 10 and 8 basis points. They are still 15 wider on the week and 121 wider this year, by far the largest move in credit. High yield at 284 basis points is 7 wider on the week, while investment grade at 80 and BBB at 99 sit within 2 basis points of their start-of-year levels.

Credit spreads are FRED ICE BofA option-adjusted spreads (IG BAMLC0A0CM, BBB BAMLC0A4CBBB, HY BAMLH0A0HYM2, CCC & Lower BAMLH0A3HYC) as of the Thursday 30 July close. FRED publishes with a one-business-day lag, so Friday’s session is not yet reflected. One-day changes reference Thursday’s move, one-week changes the Thursday 23 July close, and year-to-date the last 2025 observation. Widening (positive basis points) reads as stress; narrowing reads as relief.

§ 06 — Digital Assets

Bitcoin and Ether each fell 2.93% on Friday while the Nasdaq rose 1.00%. Both, and Solana, regained about 1% over the weekend. On the week Bitcoin fell 1.96%, Ether was flat at 0.05% higher and Solana fell 1.50%. For the year Bitcoin is 28.20% lower, Ether 37.29% and Solana 41.51%, worse than any index, sector or commodity in this letter. Nothing in last week’s calendar moved them, and the year-to-date losses are large enough that a week either way changes little.

Bitcoin’s equity link reflects the historical daily-return pattern, closest to the Nasdaq at about 0.5 and loosest to the Dow at about 0.4. Levels are FMP end-of-day closes for Friday 31 July, on the same clock as every other table in this letter. Crypto trades continuously, so daily moves compare with the Thursday 30 July close, weekly moves with the Friday 24 July close, and year-to-date with the 31 December 2025 close. Weekend closes on Sunday 2 August were US$63,517.99 for Bitcoin, US$1,883.14 for Ether and US$73.55 for Solana.

§ 07 — Metals & Energy

Two sessions took more off oil than the whole week did. Brent fell 8.70% on 27 July and 4.83% on 28 July, 13.11% across the two, then rose 7.91%, fell 4.25% and rose 1.21% on Friday to US$87.93, netting to 9.14% lower. WTI closed at US$84.67, 5.20% lower. Brent is a further 4.55% lower this morning and WTI 4.59% lower. The United States ordered its forces to hold off striking Iran while a shipping deal is negotiated, and OPEC and its partners set a September increase of about 188,000 barrels a day. Gold fell 1.29% to US$4,107 and silver 2.09%, on a day the two-year and five-year yields rose 5 and 7 basis points.

§ 08 — Economic Calendar

US release times Eastern; overseas releases shown in local-market timing. Consensus and priors are FMP-sourced. The week is built around the American labour market: job openings on Tuesday, private payrolls on Wednesday and the July employment report on Friday. The manufacturing survey lands today, the services survey on Wednesday, and China reports July trade on Friday.

Consensus looks for American hiring to pick up, so this report can move rates either way. Friday’s July employment report is expected to show 91,000 jobs added against 57,000 in June, with unemployment at 4.3% against 4.2%. June job openings on Tuesday are expected at 7.25m against 7.59m, and private payrolls on Wednesday at 75,000 against 98,000. Three Federal Reserve members voted for a rate rise last week, so a strong report adds to that group and a weak one takes the argument away.

§ 09 — Macro Themes

1 · Higher memory prices move profit, they do not create it. They are revenue for Samsung and SK Hynix and cost for the companies that assemble devices. Apple reported record June-quarter revenue, up 16% with iPhone sales up 22%, and fell 7.35% on softer guidance, thinner margins and a shortfall in services.

2 · Oil keeps repricing the same risk. Brent lost 13.11% over two sessions last week, regained most of it in one, and is 4.55% lower again this morning after the United States held off striking Iran to negotiate. Energy is still the best sector of the year at 33.19%.

3 · Long borrowing got more expensive while short borrowing got cheaper. The thirty-year yield rose 11 basis points last week to 5.27%, a nineteen-year high, and the two-year fell 5. The two ends of the market are pricing different things.

§ 10 — Analysis & Nuances

Friday priced two different things and only one of them lasts. The forced seller was already gone: the block clearing that book traded before Thursday’s US open, and Seoul fell 1.23% that Thursday. So the seller leaving did not by itself turn the market. What arrived overnight was earnings, from Amazon and from Samsung and SK Hynix themselves. That part is a genuine repricing. Sitting on top of it was a record transfer of ownership, 7.2 trillion won bought by foreigners against 8.27 trillion sold by locals, and transfers do not have to hold. This morning suggests they did not: Seoul is 4.17% lower, giving back roughly a quarter of Friday. Tokyo is 2.20% lower with no Korean seller of its own, so some of this is simply Asia reducing risk.

The same fact was priced in opposite directions on the same day. Scarce, expensive memory is income for the companies that make it and a cost for the companies that assemble devices. Samsung rose 26.81% and SK Hynix 29.95% on it; Apple fell 7.35% on it, with its own management naming memory cost as the reason margins will be thinner. That moves profit inside the supply chain rather than adding to it, which is how an index rises 0.70% with seven of eleven sectors falling. Our test for the week: Seoul closes above 6,023.66, its 28 July level, and the lowest-rated bonds hold under 1,013 basis points. Below either, the earnings part was smaller than Friday implied.

FAIRCURVE · MARKET PULSE · 03 AUG 2026 · Data via Financial Modeling Prep MCP (quote, price-change, end-of-day index, crypto and commodity charts, treasury-rates, economics calendar and news) and FRED (ICE BofA option-adjusted credit spreads via the keyed FRED API). All tables and daily returns reference the Friday 31 July 2026 session unless stated. One-week moves compare with the Friday 24 July close; year-to-date uses each market’s last 2025 close, verified against FMP end-of-day data this run. Global equity and commodity moves are computed from FMP end-of-day closes because live quotes at the time of writing show Monday trading. Crypto levels are Friday 31 July closes, with Sunday 2 August closes given in the crypto footnote. The ICE BofA CCC and lower option-adjusted spread series read, in basis points: 15 Jul 969, 16 Jul 970, 17 Jul 975, 20 Jul 977, 21 Jul 978, 22 Jul 981, 23 Jul 991, 24 Jul 996, 27 Jul 1,001, 28 Jul 1,005, 29 Jul 1,013 and 30 Jul 1,006, which is ten consecutive widening sessions to 29 July and the first narrowing on 30 July; the high yield series read 287 on 29 Jul and 284 on 30 Jul. Brent end-of-day closes were US$96.78 on 24 Jul, 88.36 on 27 Jul, 84.09 on 28 Jul, 90.74 on 29 Jul, 86.88 on 30 Jul and 87.93 on 31 Jul. US Treasury yields are the FMP treasury-rates series for 31 July (2Y 4.28, 5Y 4.45, 10Y 4.75, 30Y 5.27) against 30 July (4.23, 4.38, 4.68, 5.21), 24 July (4.33, 4.43, 4.69, 5.16) and 31 December 2025 (3.47, 3.73, 4.18, 4.84). Credit spreads are FRED ICE BofA OAS as of the Thursday 30 July close (one-business-day publication lag). Single-stock moves are FMP quote fields for the Friday 31 July close: Amazon +15.32% to US$271.58, Alphabet +6.73%, Meta +3.28%, Microsoft +3.02%, Nvidia +2.93%, Tesla +0.76%, Broadcom +0.37%, Apple -7.35% to US$308.91. Asian index levels are FMP end-of-day closes: KOSPI 6,595.45 on 31 July against 5,593.56 on 30 July, 6,690.62 on 24 July 6,023.66 on 28 July and 7,096.89 on 23 July; TAIEX 43,119.75 against 39,933.30, 43,654.84 and 44,850.81; Nikkei 225 64,362.02 against 61,867.43, 64,611.15 and 66,422.60. Monday intraday oil levels are FMP commodity charts for 3 August (Brent US$83.93, WTI US$80.78) against the 31 July closes. Monday Asian equity figures are LIVE FMP intraday quotes taken at about 09:20 Korea time, roughly six hours before the Seoul close, and will move: KOSPI 6,320.38 (-4.17%) and Nikkei 225 62,948.45 (-2.20%). Market context verified against Reuters, CNBC, WSJ, Korea Herald, Korea Times and Korea JoongAng Daily via FMP news and web search: the KOSPI’s 17.91% close, its largest one-day gain on record in both points and percentage terms, beating 11.95% on 30 October 2008, with a buy-side sidecar triggered at 9:06 a.m.; foreign investors net buying a record 7.2 trillion won of KOSPI shares that session while domestic retail investors net sold a record 8.27 trillion won on the main board, both single-day records (Korea Exchange figures; venue-inclusive totals reported elsewhere are larger); Samsung Electronics +26.81% (FMP end-of-day 207,000 to 262,500 won) and SK Hynix +29.95% at the daily limit (1,322,000 to 1,718,000 won), after their own quarterly results, Amazon’s result and reports that the hedge fund Situational Awareness had completed the deleveraging that forced the prior week’s selling; Apple’s management naming memory cost as the driver of guided gross margin of 47% to 48% and a services revenue shortfall; Microsoft’s and Amazon’s cloud results beating expectations and Amazon’s revenue acceleration; Apple’s June-quarter revenue up 16% with iPhone sales up 22%, and the post-result fall attributed to memory costs, supply limits and guided gross margin rather than demand; the Federal Reserve’s hold on 29 July with three members dissenting in favour of a rate rise; President Trump’s statement on Sunday 2 August calling off a planned strike on Iran; and the OPEC and partners agreement in principle to raise output targets by about 188,000 barrels a day from September before pausing in the fourth quarter. US calendar times Eastern; overseas releases in local timing. Not investment advice; for informational use only.