Market Pulse — Thursday, 6 August 2026

Global Cross-Asset Daily

The Hormuz repricing travelled west to east on Wednesday. The markets that priced Tuesday’s statement stalled: the S&P 500 set an intraday record at 7,793.68 and closed 0.19% lower, and Brent barely moved at US$79.45. The markets that had been closed caught up: the Nikkei rose 3.66%, the KOSPI 3.76% to 6,598.26, the TAIEX 2.88%. The Dow rose 0.49% to a third straight record on Amgen, McDonald’s and Disney earnings. The weakest credit narrowed 9 basis points more, and gold rose 3.67%.

§ 01 — Equities · United States

The record belonged to the earnings calendar, not to the technology trade. The Dow added 263.24 points, its fifth straight rise and third straight record close. Amgen, which raised its full-year forecast after reporting, rose 4.57% and contributed about 80 of those points, the most in the price-weighted index. Nvidia’s 3.43% rise drew more attention but added 33. The Nasdaq fell 0.83%: AMD lost 7.04% after reporting record revenue with a flat margin forecast, and Alphabet fell 4.03% after senior artificial intelligence researchers moved roles or left. The Russell 2000 fell 0.59%.

§ 02 — S&P 500 Sector Map

Wednesday 05 Aug · sorted best to worst (1D)

Five of eleven sectors rose, led by health care. Health care gained 1.27%, the day’s best sector, with Amgen up 4.57%. Materials added 1.23%. Energy was the day’s worst, down 2.07%, and is 2.75% lower on the week. Tuesday’s letter argued that energy shareholders had never priced the war premium and had little to reprice. Wednesday corrected part of that: the shares fell while Brent rose 0.11%. Technology slipped 0.53% as AMD’s fall outweighed Nvidia’s rise. Utilities lost 1.02%.

Full table · sorted by YTD

§ 03 — Equities · Global

All figures reference Wednesday 5 August closes computed from FMP end-of-day data. One-day moves compare with the Tuesday 4 August close, one-week moves with the Wednesday 29 July close, and year-to-date with each market’s last 2025 close. Asian sessions on Wednesday were the first with a full day to trade the American Hormuz statement; European and American sessions had already traded it on Tuesday. Thursday’s live Asian levels are excluded from all tables.

Asia’s first chance to trade the statement produced the day’s largest gains. Tokyo rose 3.66% to 66,300.44, Taipei 2.88%, and Seoul 3.76% to 6,598.26, its highest close since 27 July but still 27.61% below its 22 June peak of 9,114.55. Seoul has recovered all of Monday’s 5.12% fall. Its 16.51% weekly figure mostly reflects the 17.91% rise of 31 July inside the window. Europe, which traded the statement on Tuesday, was nearly still; the STOXX 600 added 0.04%. Shanghai rose 1.47% despite a weak July services survey.

§ 04 — US Treasuries

3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 6M 2Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y

The bond market absorbed a rate-rise argument and a weak hiring report and finished almost unchanged. The two-year fell 2 basis points to 4.18%, the ten-year held at 4.63%, and the thirty-year eased 1 to 5.17%. Two Federal Reserve officials said they are prepared to raise rates, and rate futures moved toward a September increase. The same morning, a private payroll survey showed 44,000 jobs added against 70,000 expected, and the services survey’s employment measure fell to 47.4 while its price measure rose to 70.3. The two readings point in opposite directions, and yields ended between them. Short-maturity yields still slope upward, from 3.89% at three months to 4.18% at two years, which prices rising rates rather than cuts. On the week, every maturity from two years out sits 3 to 5 basis points lower. The gap between the two-year and thirty-year is 99 basis points.

§ 05 — Credit Spreads

The condition this letter set on Wednesday was met. We wrote that if the rally was believed where it matters most, Tuesday’s reading should extend Monday’s narrowing in the weakest credit. It did. CCC and lower spreads closed Tuesday at 1,019 basis points, 9 tighter after Monday’s 6, a 15 basis point narrowing in two sessions. High yield tightened 5 to 273 and is 8 basis points tighter for the year. The year’s split remains: CCC spreads are 134 basis points wider in 2026 while every tier above them is tighter.

Credit spreads are FRED ICE BofA option-adjusted spreads (IG BAMLC0A0CM, BBB BAMLC0A4CBBB, HY BAMLH0A0HYM2, CCC & Lower BAMLH0A3HYC) as of the Tuesday 4 August close, the latest observation FRED has published, so this table runs one session behind the rest of this letter. One-day changes reference the Monday 3 August close, one-week changes the Tuesday 28 July close, and year-to-date the last 2025 observation. Widening (positive basis points) reads as stress; narrowing reads as relief.

§ 06 — Digital Assets

Ether led bitcoin for a change, and neither joined the week’s records. Ether rose 2.08% to US$1,907.29 against bitcoin’s 0.87% to US$64,607.32. Exchange-traded funds took in US$211.5m of bitcoin and US$53.8m of ether on Monday, modest sums into a still market. Bitcoin is 1.11% higher on the week and 26.16% lower for the year. Nothing in the Hormuz story or the equity records has reached crypto prices.

Bitcoin’s equity link reflects the historical daily-return pattern, closest to the Nasdaq at about 0.5 and loosest to the Dow at about 0.4. Crypto trades continuously; levels shown are FMP end-of-day closes for Wednesday 5 August. Daily moves compare with the Tuesday 4 August close, weekly moves with the Wednesday 29 July close, and year-to-date with the 31 December 2025 close.

§ 07 — Metals & Energy

Gold moved 3.67% while the yields that usually govern it barely moved. Gold closed at US$4,305.20 and has nearly erased its 2026 loss, now 0.83% lower for the year after 4.34% on Tuesday. Nothing in rates comes close to that size: the two-year fell 2 basis points. The simplest reading is buyers keeping the inflation half of Wednesday’s data, the hot services prices, and discarding the hiring half. That position carries a cost if the rate rise arrives, since a higher yield is what gold gives up. Silver rose 3.39%. Brent steadied at US$79.45; the open test needs US$83.77 by Friday, 5.44% above here. Copper added 1.26%.

§ 08 — Economic Calendar

US release times Eastern; overseas releases shown in local-market timing. Consensus and priors are FMP-sourced. Friday carries July payrolls and China’s July trade figures. Monday 10 August has no major release in the economies this letter covers. Wednesday 12 August brings the July consumer price report and a ten-year auction, the pair of events most likely to settle the September rate question.

Two releases decide the rate question: July payrolls on Friday and July inflation next Wednesday. Payrolls consensus is 80,000 after June’s 57,000; Wednesday’s weak private survey sets the risk to the low side. The consumer price report on 12 August is expected at 3.4% for the year. A rate rise argued from inflation and a hiring stall argued from payrolls can both be true, so both releases matter. China reports July trade on Friday, with export growth expected to slow to 22.7%. A ten-year auction follows on Wednesday.

§ 09 — Macro Themes

1 · The deal gained a document and kept its risk. Qatar circulated a drafted interim proposal and Washington said the strait will open soon. The same day a tanker was struck in the Red Sea. Prices moved on the first story; the second is a reason Brent stopped falling at US$79.45.

2 · Rate futures moved toward a September increase. Two Federal Reserve officials said they are prepared to act against inflation, and futures moved after services prices jumped while hiring weakened. The two-year, at 4.18%, fell 2 basis points, too small a move to read either way.

3 · Good results no longer guarantee a rise in the artificial intelligence trade. AMD reported record revenue and fell 7.04%. Alphabet fell 4.03% after research-leadership changes. Nvidia rose 3.43% on a large customer’s pledge to buy its chips exclusively. The trade now picks winners name by name while the index stands still.

4 · The option-price warning faded. Tuesday’s letter noted that the VIX rose on a record day, a sign buyers were paying more for cover. Wednesday it fell 4.18% to 15.81 and is 23.48% lower on the week. The one visible hedge against the deal failing got cheaper as Asia joined the rally.

§ 10 — Analysis & Nuances

Wednesday’s pattern was repricing in the order markets opened or published. Each market traded the Hormuz statement when its own session allowed. The United States traded it Tuesday and stalled Wednesday. Asia, closed during the statement, repriced at Wednesday’s open. The weakest credit series publishes one session late and showed Tuesday’s narrowing on Wednesday. Gold moved with the dollar, which fell on both the hiring data and the deal optimism. On this reading, New York’s stall is completion rather than doubt, and the next move needs new information: a signed agreement, tankers moving, or Friday’s payrolls. If the talks fail the order reverses: oil first, then American equities, then Asia’s open.

Scorecard. The credit condition was met, as covered above, and the Brent condition is losing: US$79.45 against the US$83.77 line with two sessions left. We will score it on Friday’s close either way. One new marker with numbers attached, set for the case that payrolls miss the 80,000 consensus and the 12 August inflation report prints 3.4% or higher. A two-year close above 4.28%, its 31 July level, reads as the rate-rise argument winning. A fall below 4.10% reads as the hiring stall winning. Anything between counts as no reading.

FAIRCURVE · MARKET PULSE · 06 AUG 2026 · Data: Financial Modeling Prep and FRED (ICE BofA credit spreads). All figures reference the Wednesday 5 August 2026 session unless stated. Not investment advice; for informational use only.