Market Pulse — Tuesday, 11 August 2026

Global Cross-Asset Daily

Monday repriced oil, yields and gold; the equity index barely moved. Talks on reopening the Strait of Hormuz failed; Iran had demanded reparations at the weekend. Brent rose 4.99% to US$87.72 and WTI 5.05% to US$82.13. Two-year Treasury yields rose 6 basis points to 4.25% and ten-year yields 7 to 4.72%. Gold rose 0.45% to US$4,419.70 and the VIX rose 3.76% to 15.46. The S&P 500 closed 0.06% lower at 7,753.15 as gains in five sectors, led by energy’s 4.66%, nearly offset declines in the other six. Wednesday’s July consumer price report decides whether the bond move or the equity calm was right.

§ 01 — Equities · United States

All four US indices moved less than 0.6% while their inputs moved multiples of that. The S&P 500 closed 4.49 points below Friday’s record at 7,753.15. The Nasdaq fell 0.32% to 26,605.36, the Dow 0.11% to 53,975.98 and the Russell 2000 0.56% to 3,017.40. Monday to Monday, all four are higher: the S&P 2.01%, the Nasdaq 2.67%, the Dow 1.50% and the Russell 1.19%. Net short positions in S&P 500 futures stood at 27,300 contracts in the last weekly data; Friday’s update shows whether the record and the oil day changed them.

§ 02 — S&P 500 Sector Map

Monday 10 Aug · sorted best to worst (1D)

Energy is now 2026’s leading sector; it passed technology in one session. Energy rose 4.66% Monday and stands 34.60% higher for the year, ahead of technology’s 29.42%. On Friday the order was reversed. Five sectors rose and six fell. The two largest decliners were the two most sensitive to borrowing costs: real estate fell 1.29% and utilities 1.10% as yields rose. Health care added 1.67%. Technology, the index’s largest sector, fell 0.88%. Over the week technology still leads at 4.65%; utilities trail at -2.77%.

Full table · sorted by YTD

§ 03 — Equities · Global

All figures reference Monday 10 August closes computed from FMP end-of-day data. One-day moves compare with the Friday 7 August close, one-week moves with the Monday 3 August close, and year-to-date with each market’s last 2025 close. Singapore was closed Monday for the National Day holiday, observed because 9 August fell on a Sunday; the STI row shows Friday’s 5,698.43 close and no daily change. All Asian Monday closes predate the failure of the Hormuz talks, which broke during US hours.

Asia’s Monday gains were booked before the talks failed. Tokyo rose 2.08% to 66,970.22, its highest close since 15 July; Taipei added 1.59% and Seoul 0.65%. Shanghai rose 0.67% to 3,966.59 and, after a 4.12% rise over the week, now sits 0.06% below its end-2025 close. All of those closes predate the Hormuz headlines, which broke during US hours, so Tuesday’s Asian sessions open against an oil price near US$88 their Monday closes have not seen. Singapore was closed for the National Day holiday. Europe was mixed: the STOXX 600 added 0.03% and the FTSE fell 0.35%.

§ 04 — US Treasuries

3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 6M 2Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y

Yields rose at every maturity, without a data release to prompt it. The two-year rose 6 basis points to 4.25%, the five-year 6 to 4.41%, the ten-year 7 to 4.72% and the thirty-year 6 to 5.25%; bills moved less. A rise that uniform from two years out moves the level and leaves the shape: the two-year to ten-year gap widened one basis point to 47. The two-year’s rise exactly reverses Friday’s payrolls fall and returns it to Thursday’s 4.25%. It now sits 3 basis points below the 4.28% line in this letter’s standing test, before the report that arms it. Three-month bills at 3.89% still yield less than one-year bills at 4.04%, so the short maturities price less tightening, not a cut. The Treasury sells ten-year notes Wednesday hours after the inflation report and thirty-year bonds Thursday.

§ 05 — Credit Spreads

The credit series lags a session, so Monday’s oil move is not in it yet. The latest FRED reading is Friday’s. CCC and lower spreads narrowed 4 basis points to 1,013, a fourth narrowing session in five, and are 21 basis points tighter on the week. High yield sits at 270, 15 tighter on the week; investment grade held at 78 and BBB at 97. Monday’s reading, published tonight, is the first measured with Brent near US$88, and shows whether low-quality credit repriced with oil.

Credit spreads are FRED ICE BofA option-adjusted spreads (IG BAMLC0A0CM, BBB BAMLC0A4CBBB, HY BAMLH0A0HYM2, CCC & Lower BAMLH0A3HYC) as of the Friday 7 August close, the latest observation FRED has published, so this table runs one session behind the rest of this letter. One-day changes reference the Thursday 6 August close, one-week changes the Friday 31 July close, and year-to-date the last 2025 observation. Widening (positive basis points) reads as stress; narrowing reads as relief.

§ 06 — Digital Assets

Bitcoin fell with bond prices, not with equities. Equities closed near flat; bitcoin fell 1.45% to US$63,907.92 as yields rose, ether fell 1.99% to US$1,871.07 and Solana 0.38% to US$75.92. The week stays positive: bitcoin 0.70%, Solana 3.31%. The flows stayed split: the US spot bitcoin funds took in about US$865m last week, while two of the largest corporate holders moved the other way. Strategy now holds US$4.75bn in cash and SharpLink, after a US$1bn six-month loss, says converting its ether holding would take about 90 days. Fund buying against treasury-company selling has kept the price inside its recent range.

Bitcoin’s equity link reflects the historical daily-return pattern, closest to the Nasdaq at about 0.5 and loosest to the Dow at about 0.4. Crypto trades continuously; levels shown are FMP end-of-day closes for Monday 10 August. Daily moves compare with the Sunday 9 August close, weekly moves with the Monday 3 August close, and year-to-date with the 31 December 2025 close.

§ 07 — Metals & Energy

All six commodities in the table rose with the strait shut. Brent added 4.99% to US$87.72 and WTI 5.05% to US$82.13; natural gas rose 4.96% to US$2.79. Friday’s scorecard recorded the US$83.77 Brent test as failed at US$83.55; Monday’s close cleared that line by 4.72%, two sessions after the deadline. The failure stands, and the size of the late move is the measure of what Monday’s news was worth. Gold rose 0.45% to US$4,419.70, an 8.05% gain over five sessions, and silver 2.79% to US$65.27. Copper added 0.38%.

§ 08 — Economic Calendar

US release times Eastern; overseas releases shown in local-market timing. Consensus and priors are FMP-sourced. Wednesday carries the July consumer price report, oil inventories and a ten-year auction; July producer prices and a thirty-year auction follow Thursday, with retail sales, consumer sentiment and the weekly futures-positioning data on Friday.

Inflation reports mid-week, spending closes it. July consumer prices are expected at 3.4% on the year Wednesday, down from 3.5%, with core at 2.5% and the monthly rate at 0.1%. Oil inventories report the same morning. Producer prices follow Thursday at a 4.9% consensus, from 5.5%, alongside weekly jobless claims. Retail sales and consumer sentiment close the week Friday, with the weekly futures data this letter is tracking.

§ 09 — Macro Themes

1 · The strait is priced as staying shut longer. Iran demanded reparations before discussing the waterway, and Washington extended its foreign-shipping waiver by 90 days while narrowing its scope. A government preparing a 90-day workaround is not expecting a quick reopening; Monday’s oil move reads the same way.

2 · Bonds priced the oil as inflation; equities priced it as rotation. Yields rose at every maturity; the index did not. Prediction markets put roughly 15% odds on a reading above 3.4%. A reading of 3.3% or lower argues the bond move gives back; 3.4% or higher arms a test equities have not priced.

3 · Profit growth has broadened beyond technology. Second-quarter earnings growth is coming from more sectors than in recent quarters, while spending on computing capacity lifts margins mainly at the largest firms. The record closes of the past week rest on more earners than the last set did.

4 · The gold buyer changed from trader to allocator. One of the largest US market makers called for standing gold exposure for the first time in 2026; speculative net long positions stand at 197,600 contracts. Demand built on standing allocations rather than event bets does not reverse on a single calm headline.

§ 10 — Analysis & Nuances

Wednesday’s report predates Monday’s oil move, and still decides what it was worth. The July price survey closed before the strait talks failed, so the report carries no signal from the oil move. The reaction does. This letter’s test arms if the reading reaches 3.4%. With crude at US$87.72 already in the market, a two-year close above 4.28% after the report restores the rate-rise risk that Friday’s payrolls removed. A fall below 4.10% says the labour report still sets the price. Note the starting point: at 4.25%, the two-year returned to its pre-payrolls level before any data, on oil alone. A reading below 3.4% leaves the test unarmed, but Monday showed the repricing can arrive on supply news without one.

Scorecard. Seoul closed 0.67% above the 6,257.45 line; the test runs through Friday. Gold at US$4,419.70 sits 1.81% above the end-2025 marker it must hold through Friday’s close. The Brent test stays recorded as failed. One new marker: a Tokyo close on Tuesday below 66,288 gives back half of Monday’s 2.08% gain and reads that rally as reopening hope now withdrawn. A hold above it reads the rally as earnings-driven and standing.

FAIRCURVE · MARKET PULSE · 11 AUG 2026 · Data: Financial Modeling Prep and FRED (ICE BofA credit spreads). All figures reference the Monday 10 August 2026 session unless stated. Not investment advice; for informational use only.