Market Pulse — Tuesday, 30 June 2026

Global Cross-Asset Daily

Equities rebounded; bonds, Asia and crypto did not follow. US stocks rose on Monday, led by the names that fell hardest on Friday: the Nasdaq gained 2.07%, the S&P 500 1.16% and the Dow 0.59% to its first close above 52,000, helped by easing US–Iran tensions and several corporate deals. Three other markets stayed weak. The Treasury front end gave back only 3 of the 14 basis points it had fallen over the week, the 2-year holding near 4.10%. Asia’s chip-heavy indices recovered only slightly and remain well down on the week, with Korea off 7.90% and Taiwan 5.74%. Bitcoin is still 31.29% lower on the year despite a small gain. We treat Monday as a one-day relief rally rather than a change in trend, with Thursday’s June payrolls the next test.

§ 01 — Equities · United States

Every US index closed higher on the week, but on one strong session rather than steady gains. Monday’s move was led by what Friday had sold: the Nasdaq’s 2.07% gain was roughly double the S&P 500’s 1.16% and well above the Dow’s 0.59%. The Russell 2000 lagged on the day at +0.01% but still leads the year at +21.29%, ahead of the Nasdaq’s +11.09% and the S&P’s +8.67%. The rebound was large enough to turn every US index positive on the week — the S&P +0.93%, Nasdaq +0.94%, Dow +1.01% and Russell +1.10% — but that reflects Monday sitting on top of Friday’s decline, not five days of steady buying. We read the move as a recovery in risk appetite rather than a change in fundamentals, and Thursday’s jobs data remains the key input.

§ 02 — S&P 500 Sector Map

Monday 29 Jun · sorted best to worst (1D)

Sector leadership reversed for the day; the year-to-date ranking did not change. Six of eleven sectors rose on Monday, led by Consumer Discretionary (+2.40%), Technology (+2.37%) and Communication Services (+1.60%) — the growth groups that fell on Friday. The laggards were the defensives that had led Friday: Utilities (-0.39%), Consumer Staples (-0.40%) and Real Estate (-0.71%), with Materials weakest at -1.82%. For the year, Technology still leads at +28.78%, followed by Energy (+19.84%), Industrials (+17.82%), Materials (+11.71%) and Real Estate (+11.33%); Communication Services (-8.36%), Financials and Consumer Discretionary (both -1.92%) remain negative. A one-day reversal in leadership reflects flows more than fundamentals, so we put more weight on the year-to-date ranking.

Full table · sorted by YTD

§ 03 — Equities · Global

Asian indices reference their Monday 29 June close from the FMP end-of-day series; at the 08:00 SGT run those markets have reopened for Tuesday, so the live price-change series is intraday-contaminated. European changes use the FMP five-day price-change series (Monday 29 June close). One-week moves compare Monday 29 June with Monday 22 June; year-to-date uses each market’s last 2025 close. Asia rose on Monday but remains well lower on the week, with the chip-led selloff only partly recovered.

Asia recovered only a little and remains the weakest region on the week. Hong Kong rose 1.57%, Shanghai 1.16%, Taiwan 0.96% and Japan’s Nikkei 0.16% on Monday, but these gains recovered little of the week’s losses: Korea’s KOSPI is down 7.90% on the week, Taiwan 5.74% and Japan 3.99%. These are also the year’s strongest indices — the KOSPI up 99.20% and the Nikkei 38.00% — and tend to move most when the AI and semiconductor trade is in question. Europe was little changed, with the STOXX 600 (+0.07%), DAX (-0.04%), CAC (-0.21%) and FTSE (-0.23%) all within a quarter-percent of flat. We expect Asia’s chip-heavy markets to remain the most sensitive read on the AI trade until Korea and Taiwan recover.

§ 04 — US Treasuries

3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 6M 2Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y

Yields rose only slightly on Monday, and the week’s decline held. The move in Treasuries was small relative to equities. On Monday the 2-year rose 3 basis points to 4.10% and the 5-year 2, the 10-year was unchanged at 4.38% and the 30-year eased 1 to 4.86% — a modest bear-flattening. Over the week, yields fell across the curve, led by the 5-year (down 15 basis points) and the 2-year (14) against 9 at the 30-year, a bull-steepening that widened 2s10s to 28 basis points from 27 and 2s30s to 76 from 71. The front end held most of its decline through a 2% Nasdaq day, which suggests the market has not abandoned its expectation of rate cuts. We see the front end as the more cautious of the two signals, and Thursday’s payrolls will test it directly.

§ 05 — Digital Assets

Crypto rose with equities but remains well down for the year. Bitcoin gained 1.04% to about $60,131, Ether 2.56% and Solana 5.08% on Monday, but the moves are small against the year’s losses: Bitcoin is down 31.29% and Ether 45.74%. Bitcoin is just above its 52-week low and below both its 50-day (about $69,400) and 200-day (about $75,700) moving averages, with the 50-day under the 200-day, a death cross. Solana is the exception, up 7.66% on the week though still 39.79% lower on the year. Bitcoin’s correlation with equities is real but partial — closest to the Nasdaq at about +0.5 and lowest to the Dow at about +0.4 — so a risk-on day tends to lift it. We read Monday’s gain as following equities rather than a low in crypto itself.

Bitcoin’s equity correlation reflects the historical daily-return pattern — closest to the Nasdaq at about +0.5 and lowest to the Dow at about +0.4. Spot levels, the 50-day and 200-day moving averages and the 52-week low are FMP quote fields at the Tuesday run-time snapshot; the 24-hour, five-day and year-to-date moves are the FMP price-change series. Crypto trades continuously, so its daily change covers a different period from the equity close.

§ 06 — Metals & Energy

Oil is lower on the week as the geopolitical premium fades. WTI rose 1.55% to about $70.30 on Monday while Brent slipped 0.49% to $73.55, but both are down on the week — Brent 4.48% and WTI 3.87% — as the risk premium from the Hormuz tensions eased and the US and Iran prepared for talks in Doha. Crude is still higher for the year, Brent +20.87% and WTI +22.43%, but a de-escalation would remove the main support for prices, and lower energy costs would help on inflation. Metals were soft: gold fell 0.26% to about $4,029 and is down 7.20% on the year, while silver firmed slightly on the day but is off 16.55% for 2026. Copper, up 8.68% year-to-date, is the firmest of the group. We expect oil to track the Doha talks in the near term.

§ 07 — Economic Calendar

US release times Eastern; overseas releases shown in local-market timing. Consensus and priors are FMP-sourced. The marquee release is Thursday's US June jobs report, where consensus looks for just 110K payrolls after 172K, with unemployment steady at 4.3%.

A short week with one key release. Thursday’s June employment report is the main event. Consensus is for about 110k payrolls after 172k in May, unemployment steady at 4.3% and average hourly earnings up 0.3% on the month. A result near consensus would support the week’s lower yields; a stronger number would likely push the front end higher and weigh on the growth names that rebounded on Monday. Ahead of it, Tuesday brings US JOLTS openings (seen easing to 7.28 million from 7.62), Conference Board confidence and German inflation, and Wednesday euro-area inflation and the US ISM manufacturing survey. US markets are closed Friday for Independence Day, so liquidity will be thin around the release.

§ 08 — Macro Themes

1 · The weekly gain reflects one strong session, not a broad recovery. Every US index closed higher on the week, but the gain came almost entirely from Monday’s rebound after Friday’s decline. We do not read a weekly total driven by a single session as evidence the market has settled, and we focus on rates, Asia and crypto, which did not take part.

2 · The bond market did not follow the equity rebound. The front end held its decline through a 2% rally in the Nasdaq, giving back only 3 of the 14 basis points the 2-year had fallen over the week. When stocks and bonds disagree this clearly about the week, we put more weight on the curve, which still points to rate cuts.

3 · Asia remains the most exposed to the AI trade. Korea, Taiwan and Japan recovered only slightly and are still well down on the week, with Korea off 7.90%, despite year-to-date gains of up to 99.20%. Their limited bounce suggests the semiconductor selloff has not fully run its course.

§ 09 — Analysis & Nuances

The markets that did not rebound are the ones to watch. Three markets did not follow Monday’s rally. The 2-year gave back only 3 of the 14 basis points it had fallen; the KOSPI, up 99.20% for the year, recovered none of its 7.90% weekly loss; and Bitcoin, down 31.29% on the year, remains near its lows and below a death cross. Each reflects last week’s repricing — lower rate expectations, the AI selloff and reduced risk appetite — and none has reversed. The US indices turned positive on the week only because Monday’s 2.07% Nasdaq gain followed Friday’s decline. We expect Thursday’s payrolls to settle the direction: a soft number near 110k would support lower yields and the rebound, while a stronger number would likely push the front end higher and pressure Monday’s leaders.

The longer-term issue is capital spending in the AI sector. Semiconductor shares have continued to gain while the larger technology companies funding that spending have moved into correction, as heavy investment reduces their free cash flow. This is why a strong result from one chipmaker no longer lifts the whole sector, and why Korea and Taiwan move sharply in both directions. With a question over Fed independence still open after the Supreme Court’s rulings, and a holiday-shortened week ahead of the payrolls report, we expect continued two-way volatility. We would use Monday’s strength to improve quality rather than add risk, and let the data set the direction into the second half.

FAIRCURVE · MARKET PULSE · 30 JUN 2026 · Data via Financial Modeling Prep MCP (quote / price-change, EOD index charts, treasury-rates, economics calendar, news). US equities, sectors and European indices reference the Monday 29 June 2026 session via the FMP price-change series (1D / five-day / year-to-date); Asian indices use FMP end-of-day closes for Monday 29 June, because at the 08:00 SGT run those markets have reopened for Tuesday and the live series is intraday-contaminated. One-week changes use the five-day window (Monday 22 June); year-to-date uses each market’s last 2025 close. UST yields are the FMP treasury-rates series (Monday 29 June). The credit-spread section is omitted this edition: the FRED ICE BofA OAS feed was unreachable at run time and no figures were substituted. Crypto and commodity levels reflect the Tuesday run-time snapshot. US calendar times Eastern; overseas releases in local timing. Singapore time zone. Not investment advice; for informational use only.