Market Pulse — Tuesday, 4 August 2026

Global Cross-Asset Daily

The oil fall and the record were two different events. Brent fell 4.73% to US$83.77 after the United States called off a planned strike on Iran. That moved the companies that carry passengers: United Airlines rose 5.82% and Norwegian Cruise Line 6.64%. It did not move the ones that carry freight, with FedEx up 0.60% and Union Pacific down 0.31%. The Dow rose 693.38 points to a record 53,178.41, of which Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon supplied US$52.74 of share price. The S&P 500 gained 1.47% and the Nasdaq 2.13%.

§ 01 — Equities · United States

The Dow set a record; the Nasdaq is still 4.36% below its June peak. The Dow rose 1.32% to 53,178.41, past its 6 July close of 53,055.91. The S&P 500 gained 1.47% to 7,599.97, 0.13% under its 2 June peak of 7,609.77. The Nasdaq rose 2.13% to 25,913.90 and is 4.36% under its own 2 June peak. Meta gained 6.02%, Microsoft 4.93%, Alphabet 4.88% and Amazon 4.58%; Apple fell 1.78%. The Russell 2000 rose 1.73%.

§ 02 — S&P 500 Sector Map

Monday 03 Aug · sorted best to worst (1D)

Eight of eleven sectors rose, led by communication services at 2.86% and industrials at 1.85%. Consumer discretionary added 1.83%, technology 1.53%, materials 1.15% and financials 0.77%. Three fell: energy 1.28%, staples 0.22% and health care 0.19%. Energy is the best sector of the year at 31.49% and the worst on the day. Industrials was not a fuel story. Axon rose 9.12% and Boeing 8.03%, the latter on an upgrade and approval for the 737 MAX 7. Communication services was Meta and Alphabet, up 6.02% and 4.88%.

Full table · sorted by YTD

§ 03 — Equities · Global

All figures reference Monday 3 August closes computed from FMP end-of-day data. One-day moves compare with the Friday 31 July close, one-week moves with the Friday 24 July close, and year-to-date with each market’s last 2025 close (Frankfurt, Tokyo, Seoul and the STOXX 600: 30 December, their final 2025 session). Asian and European markets closed before Monday’s US session, so their one-day moves do not contain the American rally. Seoul is 1.77% higher in live Tuesday trading at 6,367.93, which is not included in any table here.

Taipei has all but recovered last week’s fall and Seoul has not. Across the three sessions to 30 July Seoul fell 17.20% and Taipei 8.48% on the same memory-chip news. Both rebounded on Friday. Taipei now sits 0.57% below its 27 July level and Seoul 7.38% below. On Monday Seoul fell a further 5.12% to 6,257.45 while Taipei added 0.62%. Tokyo fell 0.94% and Shanghai 0.59%. In Europe the DAX rose 1.45%, the CAC 40 1.22% and the STOXX 600 0.45%, while the FTSE 100 fell 0.10%. Hong Kong leads the week at 4.19%.

§ 04 — US Treasuries

3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 6M 2Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y

Yields rose out to six months and fell from one year onwards. The three-month rose 8 basis points to 3.91%, while the two-year closed at 4.25%, the five-year 4.40%, the ten-year 4.70% and the thirty-year 5.23%, down 3, 5, 5 and 4 basis points on the day. The two-year is 8 basis points lower on the week, and that figure hides three moves. It fell 11 basis points from 24 to 29 July. It then rose 6 over the two sessions to 31 July, after the Federal Reserve held with three members voting for a rise. It fell 3 more on Monday. Only that last leg lines up with oil. The thirty-year rose 7 on the week, widening the gap between the two from 83 to 98 basis points.

§ 05 — Credit Spreads

The weakest borrowers widened 121 basis points this year while oil rose 37.67%. Whatever has been pushing CCC and lower rated bonds out to 1,006 basis points, a shortage of energy revenue was not it. High yield sits at 284 basis points, BBB at 99 and investment grade at 80, each within a few basis points of where 2026 began. These are Thursday 30 July readings, two sessions before Monday. Thursday brings the first reading that contains the oil move, and one question with it. Does a 13.44% fall in Brent narrow this group by cutting costs, or widen it by cutting the revenue of its energy issuers?

Credit spreads are FRED ICE BofA option-adjusted spreads (IG BAMLC0A0CM, BBB BAMLC0A4CBBB, HY BAMLH0A0HYM2, CCC & Lower BAMLH0A3HYC) as of the Thursday 30 July close, the latest observation FRED has published. Friday’s and Monday’s sessions are not yet reflected, so this table is two sessions behind every other table in this letter and is shown for level, not for the reaction to Monday. One-day changes reference Thursday’s move, one-week changes the Thursday 23 July close, and year-to-date the last 2025 observation. Widening (positive basis points) reads as stress; narrowing reads as relief.

§ 06 — Digital Assets

Bitcoin closed unchanged while the Nasdaq rose 2.13%. Bitcoin finished at US$63,500.74, level with Sunday. Ether fell 1.19% and solana 0.01%. Bitcoin has moved with the Nasdaq at about 0.5 on daily returns, closer than with any other equity index, so one flat day proves nothing by itself. It does point the same way as gold, which fell 0.40% and carries the same war premium as oil. For the year bitcoin is 27.43% lower, ether 37.28% and solana 40.92%. Nothing else in this letter has lost as much in 2026.

Bitcoin’s equity link reflects the historical daily-return pattern, closest to the Nasdaq at about 0.5 and loosest to the Dow at about 0.4. Crypto trades continuously, so the levels shown are FMP end-of-day closes for Monday 3 August, daily moves compare with the Sunday 2 August close, weekly moves with the Monday 27 July close, and year-to-date with the 31 December 2025 close. Measured instead against the Friday 31 July close of US$62,825.90, bitcoin rose 1.07% across the weekend and Monday combined.

§ 07 — Metals & Energy

Brent has fallen 13.44% in a week without the strait reopening. Brent fell 4.73% on Monday to US$83.77 and WTI 5.11% to US$80.34, after the United States held off striking Iran. Iran said the same day that it has no negotiations with the United States. Its talks are with Oman, on a temporary shipping route, and Iran said an agreement with Oman alone would not reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Brent is still 37.67% higher for the year. Gold fell 0.40% to US$4,090.50 and copper rose 1.16% to US$6.54, up 15.11% this year.

§ 08 — Economic Calendar

US release times Eastern; overseas releases shown in local-market timing. Consensus and priors are FMP-sourced. The week is built around the American labour market: job openings today, private payrolls and the services survey on Wednesday, weekly claims on Thursday and the July employment report on Friday. Wednesday also brings the Treasury’s quarterly refunding statement, which sets long-dated issuance and is the release most relevant to the thirty-year yield. The services price measure covers July, so it reflects the fall in oil that happened inside that month and not Monday’s move. China reports July trade on Friday.

Wednesday, not Friday, is the day for long yields. The Treasury publishes its quarterly refunding statement on Wednesday, setting how much long-dated debt will be sold. That is the release that speaks to the thirty-year. Friday brings the July employment report, with consensus at 83,000 jobs added against 57,000 and unemployment at 4.3% against 4.2%. Job openings are due today at 7.45m against 7.59m.

§ 09 — Macro Themes

1 · The oil premium came out ahead of the agreement. Iran confirmed on Monday that it has no negotiations with the United States, and that its talks with Oman, however they end, would not by themselves reopen the strait. Brent fell 4.73% anyway.

2 · The thirty-year yield is not following the oil price. It rose 7 basis points over the week to 5.23% while Brent fell 13.44%. Long borrowing costs are set by how much debt is sold, which is why Wednesday’s refunding statement matters more here than Friday’s jobs report.

3 · The Dow and the Nasdaq are describing different markets. The Dow set a record on Monday. The Nasdaq is 4.36% below its 2 June peak, and the technology sector is 3.01% lower over the past month even after Monday’s 1.53% gain. The record is not a technology market at new highs.

4 · The dollar cost of defending the yen is now a Federal Reserve question. The dollar bought 157.35 yen on Monday against 163.82 a week earlier. The United States Treasury Secretary has asked the Federal Reserve to raise the US$60bn limit on a dollar facility, so Japan need not sell Treasuries to fund the defence.

§ 10 — Analysis & Nuances

The oil fall reached the companies that carry people, not the ones that carry goods. Norwegian Cruise Line rose 6.64%, United Airlines and Alaska 5.82%, American 5.04% and Delta 4.75%. Freight moved far less: UPS added 2.52%, FedEx 0.60% and Norfolk Southern 0.35%, while Union Pacific fell 0.31% and CSX 1.13%. The difference is contractual. Airlines and cruise operators carry the fuel price themselves, while freight carriers recover it from customers through surcharges, so a cheaper barrel leaves their margins roughly where they were.

The record was not the oil trade either. The Dow is weighted by share price, not by percentage move, and the five largest contributions on Monday were Microsoft at US$22.93, Alphabet US$17.37, Boeing US$17.35, Caterpillar US$15.22 and Sherwin-Williams US$13.37. Chevron removed US$3.64. Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon reported results in the last days of July, so Monday brought no fresh disclosure. Second-quarter profits for the S&P 500 are tracking 47.4% above a year earlier, and 28.8% once Alphabet and Amazon are taken out. Our test is one price. We expect Brent to end this week above Monday’s US$83.77 close, because Iran has said the Oman route alone cannot reopen the strait. Both conditions we set last week were met: Seoul held above 6,023.66 and the weakest credit under 1,013 basis points.

FAIRCURVE · MARKET PULSE · 04 AUG 2026 · Data via Financial Modeling Prep MCP (quote, price-change, end-of-day index, crypto, commodity and forex charts, treasury-rates, economics calendar and news) and FRED (ICE BofA option-adjusted credit spreads via the keyed FRED API). All tables and daily returns reference the Monday 3 August 2026 session unless stated. One-week moves compare with the Friday 24 July close; year-to-date uses each market’s last 2025 close, verified against FMP end-of-day data this run. US index levels and daily, weekly and year-to-date percentages are FMP price-change fields for 3 August; index peak comparisons use FMP end-of-day closes across 2026, in which the S&P 500 peaked at 7,609.77 and the Nasdaq at 27,093.90, both on 2 June, and the Dow’s best close before Monday was 53,055.91 on 6 July. Single-stock moves are FMP quotes for the 3 August close: Meta +6.02% to US$590.24, Microsoft +4.93% to US$487.65, Alphabet +4.88% to US$373.51, Amazon +4.58% to US$284.02, Tesla +3.49%, Nvidia +2.93%, Broadcom +0.76%, Exxon -0.25%, Chevron -1.85% and Apple -1.78% to US$303.42; inside industrials, Boeing +8.03%, United Airlines +5.82% to US$128.39, Delta +4.75% to US$91.59, General Electric +2.46%, UPS +2.52%, Caterpillar +1.87%, FedEx +0.60% and Union Pacific -0.31%. US Treasury yields are the FMP treasury-rates series for 3 August (3M 3.91, 2Y 4.25, 5Y 4.40, 10Y 4.70, 20Y 5.23, 30Y 5.23) against 31 July (3.83, 4.28, 4.45, 4.75, 5.28, 5.27), 24 July (3.96, 4.33, 4.43, 4.69, 5.18, 5.16) and 31 December 2025 (3.67, 3.47, 3.73, 4.18, 4.79, 4.84). Credit spreads are FRED ICE BofA OAS as of the Thursday 30 July close, the latest published observation. Asian index levels are FMP end-of-day closes: KOSPI 6,257.45 on 3 August against 6,595.45 on 31 July, 5,593.56 on 30 July, 6,690.62 on 24 July and 6,755.75 on 27 July; TAIEX 43,386.41 against 43,119.75, 39,933.30, 43,654.84 and 43,634.19 on 27 July, so the 28 to 30 July falls were 17.20% in Seoul and 8.48% in Taipei; Nikkei 225 63,754.90 against 64,362.02 and 64,611.15. Seoul’s live Tuesday level of 6,367.93 is FMP intraday and is excluded from all tables. Brent end-of-day closes were US$96.78 on 24 July, 90.74 on 29 July, 87.93 on 31 July and 83.77 on 3 August; WTI US$89.31, 84.46, 84.67 and 80.34. Dollar-yen is the FMP forex end-of-day series: 163.824 on 24 July, 163.391 on 29 July, 157.469 on 31 July and 157.352 on 3 August, so the yen strengthened 4.11% against the dollar over the week. Market context verified against Reuters, WSJ, CNBC, Barron’s and Invezz via FMP news and against wire reporting of the Iranian foreign ministry briefing via web search: President Trump calling off a planned strike on Iran to allow negotiation; Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei stating on 3 August that Iran has no negotiations under way with the United States, that talks with Oman on a temporary safe shipping route had run seven or eight days and made progress, and that an Iran-Oman agreement alone would not be enough to reopen the Strait of Hormuz; hopes of reopening the strait driving the oil fall; the Dow’s record close; the joint United States and Japan intervention to support the yen and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s request that the Federal Reserve raise the US$60bn borrowing limit on its FIMA repo facility so Japan can raise dollars without selling Treasuries; the Federal Reserve senior loan officer survey reporting broadly unchanged commercial and industrial lending standards; FactSet earnings-season data with 61% of the S&P 500 reported showing a blended second-quarter earnings growth rate of 47.4%, falling to 28.8% excluding Alphabet and Amazon, with Amazon’s surprise alone accounting for 76% of the prior week’s increase; Boeing rising 8.03% on an analyst upgrade and United States regulatory certification of the 737 MAX 7. Dow contribution arithmetic uses FMP share-price changes for 3 August, the Dow being weighted by share price: Microsoft +US$22.93, Alphabet +US$17.37, Boeing +US$17.35, Caterpillar +US$15.22, Sherwin-Williams +US$13.37, Amazon +US$12.44, Home Depot +US$8.06, Nvidia +US$5.89, against Chevron -US$3.64 and Apple -US$5.49; Meta is not a Dow constituent. Fuel-user moves on 3 August are FMP quotes: Norwegian Cruise Line +6.64%, United Airlines +5.82%, Alaska +5.82%, American +5.04%, Delta +4.75%, Southwest +4.67%, Carnival +3.34%, UPS +2.52%, Royal Caribbean +1.79%, FedEx +0.60% and Union Pacific -0.31%. The technology sector one-month change of -3.01% is the FMP price-change 1M field for XLK. Twenty-five states suing over the latest tariffs; and the Federal Reserve’s 29 July hold with three members dissenting in favour of a rate rise. US calendar times Eastern; overseas releases in local timing. Not investment advice; for informational use only.