Market Pulse — Wednesday, 1 July 2026

Global Cross-Asset Daily

Read the quarter, not the day. US equities closed their strongest quarter since 2020 on Tuesday, and the single session flattered the averages: the S&P 500 rose 0.75% and the Nasdaq 1.52%, but only four of eleven sectors advanced and the gains sat in Technology (+2.76%) and Industrials (+1.35%). Step back and the picture is more mixed. On the year the 2-year yield is up 67 basis points, CCC-rated credit has widened 82, and Bitcoin is down 33.00% and near its lows with record ETF outflows. The day was risk-on; the year-to-date signal is a market rewarding quality and repricing the Fed higher. We enter the second half with Thursday’s early payrolls as the first test.

§ 01 — Equities · United States

One session did the work; the week and year tell calmer stories. Every US index rose on Tuesday — the S&P 500 0.75%, the Nasdaq 1.52%, the Dow 0.26% to a record and the Russell 2000 0.46% — but the day was concentrated, the Nasdaq gaining roughly double the S&P and six times the Dow. On the week the spread narrows: Nasdaq +1.90%, S&P +1.23%, Russell +0.63%, Dow +0.60%. On the year the order flips to reward risk taken earlier: the Russell leads at +21.86%, ahead of the Nasdaq’s +12.79% and the S&P’s +9.51%. We read the quarter as genuinely strong but increasingly dependent on a few large names, with jobs data the near-term swing factor.

§ 02 — S&P 500 Sector Map

Tuesday 30 Jun · sorted best to worst (1D)

An up day with down breadth. Only four of the eleven sectors rose on Tuesday — Technology (+2.76%), Industrials (+1.35%), Materials (+0.34%) and Consumer Discretionary (+0.14%) — while the other seven fell, led by the rate-sensitive Real Estate (-1.97%), Consumer Staples (-1.54%) and Utilities (-1.48%), with Health Care off 1.29%. The pattern matches the day’s rise in yields: buyers favoured growth and sold bond-proxy sectors. Over the year the ranking is steadier — Technology leads at +32.33%, then Industrials (+19.41%) and Energy (+18.79%), while Communication Services (-9.00%), Financials (-2.12%) and Consumer Discretionary (-1.78%) stay negative. We anchor to the year-to-date map rather than a single rotation.

Full table · sorted by YTD

§ 03 — Equities · Global

European indices reference the Tuesday 30 June close via the FMP five-day price-change series. Asian indices use FMP end-of-day closes for Tuesday 30 June, because at the 08:00 SGT run those markets have reopened for Wednesday and the live series is intraday-contaminated. One-week moves compare Tuesday 30 June with Tuesday 23 June; year-to-date uses each market’s last 2025 close.

Chip markets set the tone in Asia, in both directions. Taiwan’s TAIEX rose 2.50% on Tuesday, the day’s strongest global index, and Korea’s KOSPI 0.97% — yet on the week they part company, the KOSPI up 3.32% and the TAIEX down 2.07% as the semiconductor selloff only partly reverses. These stay the year’s standouts, the KOSPI up 101.14% and the TAIEX 59.25%. Hong Kong fell 0.63% and Singapore 0.73%; Japan’s Nikkei rose 0.86%. Europe was quietly firmer, the STOXX 600 up 0.88% and the CAC 0.44%, the DAX flat. We expect Korea and Taiwan to remain the sharpest gauge of the AI trade into the second half.

§ 04 — US Treasuries

3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 6M 2Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y

The day, the week and the year each point differently. On Tuesday Treasuries sold off — the 10-year up 6 basis points to 4.44%, the 5-year and 30-year 5 each and the 2-year 4, a mild bear steepening that left 2s10s at 30 basis points. On the week the move reversed, yields lower across the curve and led by the belly, the 5-year down 8 basis points and the 10-year 6 against a 2 basis point decline at the 2-year, a bull flattening. On the year the front end dominates: the 2-year is up 67 basis points against just 7 at the 30-year, a hawkish repricing that has flattened the curve and held. We read Tuesday as quarter-end position-squaring, and Thursday’s payrolls as the test of whether the year’s front-end move extends.

§ 05 — Credit Spreads

Calm at the top of the stack, stress at the bottom. Credit tightened across every tier on Tuesday alongside equities — investment grade one basis point firmer at 76, high yield three at 280 — but the longer horizons expose a split. On the week every tier widened, high yield by 15 basis points and CCC and lower by 20. On the year investment grade is 3 basis points tighter and BBB 6, while CCC and lower has widened 82, to 967. The lowest-quality borrowers are repricing even as the broad market holds. We read the dispersion as selective, not systemic, but it belongs alongside narrow equity breadth and crypto’s decline as evidence that risk appetite is thinning at the edges.

Credit spreads are FRED ICE BofA option-adjusted spreads (IG BAMLC0A0CM, BBB BAMLC0A4CBBB, HY BAMLH0A0HYM2, CCC & Lower BAMLH0A3HYC) as of the 29 June close, one session behind the equity data. Widening (positive bp) reads as stress.

§ 06 — Digital Assets

Crypto is the clearest break from the equity story. While stocks set a record quarter, Bitcoin fell 2.53% on the day and 3.86% on the week and is down 33.00% on the year, near its lowest level of the year and below both major moving averages, which remain in a death cross. Ether fell 2.39% and is off 47.02% for the year; Solana slipped 1.79% on Tuesday but leads over the week at +8.25%. The driver is flows, not sentiment alone: spot Bitcoin ETFs are set for their worst month of outflows on record, pulling out the marginal buyer that was meant to dampen selloffs. Bitcoin usually tracks equities loosely — closest to the Nasdaq at about 0.5, loosest to the Dow at about 0.4 — but this week that link worked against it. We would wait for redemptions to slow before calling a floor.

Bitcoin’s equity correlation reflects the historical daily-return pattern — closest to the Nasdaq at about 0.5 and loosest to the Dow at about 0.4. Spot levels and moving-average signals are FMP quote fields at the run-time snapshot; the daily, weekly and year-to-date moves are the FMP price-change series. Crypto trades continuously, so its daily change covers a different window from the equity close. ETF-flow context is from press reporting, not a price figure.

§ 07 — Metals & Energy

Energy steadied; the metals complex stayed heavy. Crude edged up on Tuesday, WTI 0.83% to $70.08 and Brent 0.63% to $73.41, but both finished the week roughly flat as the Hormuz risk premium kept fading. Crude is still the year’s leader, Brent up 20.64% and WTI 22.05%. In metals, gold slipped 0.49% and is down 7.42% on the year, and silver fell 1.72% on the day though it held a 2.25% weekly gain. Copper is the exception, up 9.97% on the year and 4.39% on the week, the one metal tied to activity rather than safety. We see softer energy as a help to the inflation path into Thursday’s data.

§ 08 — Economic Calendar

US release times Eastern; overseas releases shown in local-market timing. Consensus and priors are FMP-sourced. The marquee release is Thursday's US June jobs report, where consensus looks for just 110K payrolls after 172K, with unemployment steady at 4.3%.

Thin week, one decisive print. June payrolls arrive on Thursday, pulled a day forward by Friday’s Independence Day close. Consensus is about 110K after 172K in May, with unemployment steady at 4.3%. A soft figure would reinforce the week’s lower yields and support the growth rebound; a stronger one would lift the front end and press the rate-sensitive sectors that already lagged on Tuesday. Wednesday sets the stage with US ISM manufacturing (consensus 54.0) and euro-area flash inflation (seen at 3.0%). With liquidity draining into the holiday, a surprise could travel further than usual.

§ 09 — Macro Themes

1 · The averages are being carried by fewer shoulders. The best quarter since 2020 ended with four sectors up and seven down, and the Nasdaq’s 1.52% day roughly doubling the S&P 500’s. Narrow leadership is not a broken market, but it raises the cost of any stumble by the chip and industrial names now doing the lifting.

2 · The tails are where the repricing is happening. Beneath a calm index and a VIX near its lows, CCC credit has widened 82 basis points on the year and Bitcoin is down 33.00% with record ETF outflows. The centre is quiet; the edges are not. We give more weight to what the tails are saying about risk appetite.

3 · Rates are the swing factor into the second half. Yields fell on the week but the 2-year is up 67 basis points on the year, and Tuesday’s 6 basis point back-up in the 10-year was enough to sink the bond-proxy sectors. Thursday’s payrolls decides whether the front end resumes its climb.

§ 10 — Analysis & Nuances

The horizon you choose changes the conclusion. On the day, Tuesday was risk-on: equities at records, credit tighter, oil firmer. On the year, the message is the opposite in the places that matter for risk — the 2-year is up 67 basis points, CCC credit is 82 wider, and Bitcoin is down 33.00% into record ETF redemptions. The first half still delivered, with the S&P 500 up 9.51% and the Russell 2000 21.86%, but the gains increasingly rest on a narrow set of leaders while the riskiest assets are repricing. We expect Thursday’s payrolls to settle the near-term direction: a soft number near 110K supports the week’s lower yields and lets the rally broaden, while a print above roughly 150K would revive the front-end selloff and pressure the bond-proxy sectors that already lagged.

The AI trade has split into winners and financiers. Semiconductors powered the quarter — Taiwan up 2.50% on Tuesday, Korea up 101.14% on the year — while the hyperscalers paying for the build-out face a tougher market as capital spending eats into free cash flow. That is why a strong chip session no longer lifts the whole market and why breadth can shrink on an up day. With the Supreme Court keeping Governor Cook in place, the policy risk is data rather than personnel for now. We would use quarter-end strength to raise portfolio quality rather than chase leadership, and let the jobs report frame the second half.

FAIRCURVE · MARKET PULSE · 01 JUL 2026 · Data via Financial Modeling Prep MCP (quote / price-change, EOD index charts, treasury-rates, economics calendar, news) and FRED (ICE BofA OAS credit spreads). US equities, sectors and European indices reference the Tuesday 30 June 2026 session via the FMP price-change series (1D / five-day / year-to-date); Asian indices use FMP end-of-day closes for Tuesday 30 June, because at the 08:00 SGT run those markets have reopened for Wednesday and the live series is intraday-contaminated. One-week changes use the five-day window (Tuesday 23 June); year-to-date uses each market’s last 2025 close. UST yields are the FMP treasury-rates series (Tuesday 30 June). Credit spreads are FRED ICE BofA OAS as of the 29 June close, one session behind the equity data. Crypto and commodity levels reflect the run-time snapshot. US calendar times Eastern; overseas releases in local timing. Singapore time zone. Not investment advice; for informational use only.