Market Pulse — Wednesday, 5 August 2026

Global Cross-Asset Daily

Tuesday split the market into assets that priced the Iran deal and assets that did not. The US Treasury Secretary said a Hormuz deal could come within days; Iran said the day before that it has no United States negotiations. Brent fell 5.26% to US$79.36. The S&P 500 rose 1.78% to 7,735.60, its first record close since 2 June, the Dow added 907.47 points to a record 54,085.88, and ten-year yields fell 7 basis points to 4.63%. The VIX rose 4.04%, energy shares barely moved, and the weakest credit spreads sit 143 basis points wider for the year.

§ 01 — Equities · United States

The records owed more to earnings than to oil. The S&P 500 closed at 7,735.60 and the Nasdaq rose 2.59% to 26,584.99, still 1.88% below its 2 June peak. The Russell 2000 gained 1.85%. Palantir reported after Monday’s close and rose 29.45%. Caterpillar reported before Tuesday’s open, opened 11.08% higher and closed up 5.60%; its US$46.51 of share price was the largest Dow contribution, ahead of Goldman Sachs at US$25.92, in an index weighted by price. Amazon, whose results carried much of last week’s rise, fell 2.32%.

§ 02 — S&P 500 Sector Map

Tuesday 04 Aug · sorted best to worst (1D)

Seven of eleven sectors rose; technology’s 4.98% was the largest sector move of the day. Micron rose 7.62%, AMD 7.00%, Broadcom 6.61% and Cisco 5.08%. Materials added 1.94% and industrials 1.77%. Utilities was the worst sector, down 0.56%, with real estate, health care and energy also lower. The energy detail: the sector has lost 1.73% over two sessions in which Brent lost 9.74%. Either equity holders expect the oil fall to reverse, or the shares never carried the war premium the barrel did. On either reading, the sector’s investors have little to reprice.

Full table · sorted by YTD

§ 03 — Equities · Global

All figures reference Tuesday 4 August closes computed from FMP end-of-day data. One-day moves compare with the Monday 3 August close, one-week moves with the Tuesday 28 July close, and year-to-date with each market’s last 2025 close (Frankfurt, Tokyo, Seoul and the STOXX 600: 30 December, their final 2025 session). Asian markets closed before the US Treasury Secretary’s Hormuz statement and before the American session; European markets traded through the statement but closed before New York’s records. Wednesday’s live Asian levels are excluded from all tables.

Asia closed before the American statement; Europe caught part of it. Seoul rose 1.62% to 6,358.95, recovering part of Monday’s 5.12% fall, and is 50.89% higher this year. Taipei slipped 0.06%, Hong Kong fell 0.60%, and Tokyo added 0.32% with the yen at 157.72 per dollar, 3.88% stronger on the week after the joint intervention. The DAX rose 1.04% and the STOXX 600 0.73%, both closing before New York’s records. Wednesday’s Asian sessions are the first that can fully price the Hormuz statement.

§ 04 — US Treasuries

3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 6M 2Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y

Yields fell at every maturity, and the middle of the curve fell most. The two-year closed at 4.20%, down 5 basis points; the five-year and ten-year each fell 7, to 4.33% and 4.63%; the thirty-year fell 5 to 5.18%. Cheaper oil subtracts directly from expected inflation, and Tuesday’s bond move was that subtraction. The weekly picture is different: the two-year is 6 basis points lower, the thirty-year 9 higher. Even after Tuesday’s fall, long borrowing costs rose on the week into Wednesday’s quarterly refunding statement, which sets long-dated issuance. The gap between the two-year and thirty-year held at 98 basis points.

§ 05 — Credit Spreads

The cleanest test of the rally sits in the weakest credit. High yield overall trades at 278 basis points, 3 tighter than at the start of the year. CCC and lower trades at 1,028: 27 wider over the week, but 6 tighter on Monday from Friday’s 1,034. These readings stop one session before Tuesday’s rally. If the equity move is believed where it matters most, Tuesday’s and Wednesday’s readings should extend Monday’s narrowing. One correction: Monday’s letter scored our credit condition as met on Thursday’s 1,006, then the latest figure. Friday’s figure arrived at 1,034, so scored on the full week that condition failed.

Credit spreads are FRED ICE BofA option-adjusted spreads (IG BAMLC0A0CM, BBB BAMLC0A4CBBB, HY BAMLH0A0HYM2, CCC & Lower BAMLH0A3HYC) as of the Monday 3 August close, the latest observation FRED has published, so this table runs one session behind the rest of this letter and does not contain Tuesday’s rally. One-day changes reference the Friday 31 July close, one-week changes the Monday 27 July close, and year-to-date the last 2025 observation. Widening (positive basis points) reads as stress; narrowing reads as relief.

§ 06 — Digital Assets

Bitcoin was nearly still through its own bad news and the equity rally alike. It rose 0.92% to US$64,050.37 while the Nasdaq, the index it tracks most closely at a correlation near 0.5, rose 2.59%. Thieves have taken more than US$100m of bitcoin in recent days from accounts sold as the safest way to hold it. A price this steady against both good and bad news reads as a market short of buyers and sellers alike. Ether rose 0.50% to US$1,868.28 and solana 0.29% to US$73.70. For the year bitcoin is down 26.80%, ether 37.03% and solana 40.78%.

Bitcoin’s equity link reflects the historical daily-return pattern, closest to the Nasdaq at about 0.5 and loosest to the Dow at about 0.4. Crypto trades continuously; levels shown are FMP end-of-day closes for Tuesday 4 August. Daily moves compare with the Monday 3 August close, weekly moves with the Tuesday 28 July close, and year-to-date with the 31 December 2025 close.

§ 07 — Metals & Energy

Gold rose into the oil fall, which corrects a claim this letter made on Monday. Brent fell 5.26% to US$79.36 and WTI 5.69% to US$75.77. Monday’s letter said gold carried the same war premium as oil; a shared premium would have taken both down together. Instead gold rose 1.52% to US$4,152.60, following two-year yields, which fell 5 basis points, and silver rose 4.13%. If the talks fail, the returning premium will show in Brent alone. Copper added 1.57% and is 16.92% higher this year. Natural gas fell 3.56%. Brent remains 30.42% higher in 2026, with the strait still closed.

§ 08 — Economic Calendar

US release times Eastern; overseas releases shown in local-market timing. Consensus and priors are FMP-sourced. Wednesday carries the Treasury’s quarterly refunding statement, which sets long-dated issuance, and the July services survey with its price measure. Thursday adds weekly claims and second-quarter labour costs. Friday closes the week with the July employment report and China’s July trade figures. Monday 10 August has no major American release.

Wednesday is the heaviest day of the calendar. The refunding statement comes at 8:30 New York time, and the July services survey follows at 10:00 with its price measure expected at 66.2 after 67.7, covering the month in which oil began falling. Friday brings July payrolls, consensus 80,000 jobs added against 57,000, unemployment steady at 4.2%. China reports July trade the same day, with export growth expected to slow to 22.7% from 27.0%. Monday 10 August has no major American release.

§ 09 — Macro Themes

1 · Two governments described the same talks; prices followed one of them. Iran said Monday it has no negotiations with the United States. The US Treasury Secretary said Tuesday a deal could come within days. The whole session repriced on the second statement. Until barrels move, that gap is the week’s risk.

2 · Option prices rose with the record. The VIX, the price of one-month index options, rose 4.04% to 16.50 on the day the S&P 500 set its first record close in two months. Buyers of Tuesday’s rally paid more, not less, to cover the month ahead.

3 · The artificial intelligence trade returned through results, and rotated as it did. Palantir rose 29.45% after reporting, and the chip makers followed, Micron up 7.62% and AMD 7.00%. Meta and Amazon, up 6.02% and 4.58% on Monday, fell 0.39% and 2.32%. Same trade, new leaders.

4 · The weakest credit is the cleanest test left. CCC and lower spreads are 143 basis points wider this year against high yield 3 tighter. Monday narrowed the CCC reading by 6 basis points. Tuesday’s reading, published during Wednesday’s US day, shows whether the rally reached the bottom of the credit market.

§ 10 — Analysis & Nuances

The rally’s exceptions say more than the rally. The move itself is easy to explain: cheaper oil lowers expected inflation, so bonds rose; lower yields and cheaper fuel support profits, so stocks rose. Three prices did not fit. Option prices rose on a record day. Energy shares lost little against a 9.74% two-session fall in the barrel. Bitcoin barely moved against a 2.59% Nasdaq rise. The first two are deal doubt: buyers paid to cover a failure of the talks, and energy holders kept shares priced for the fall to reverse. A signed agreement resolves both. Bitcoin sits outside this week’s stories; no Hormuz outcome changes that.

Keeping score. Monday’s test was that Brent would end this week above US$83.77, on the argument that Iran’s talks with Oman alone could not reopen the strait. Brent closed Tuesday at US$79.36, well below that line. The argument rested on what Iran said; the price now rests on what Washington said, and only one of them can be right by Friday. We hold the test open and will score it either way. The credit condition we scored as met on Monday failed once Friday’s 1,034 reading arrived. Two lessons: score conditions only on complete data, and expect official statements to move prices faster than facts do.

FAIRCURVE · MARKET PULSE · 05 AUG 2026 · Data via Financial Modeling Prep MCP (quote, price-change, end-of-day index, crypto, commodity and forex charts, treasury-rates, economics calendar and news) and FRED (ICE BofA option-adjusted credit spreads via the keyed FRED API). All tables and daily returns reference the Tuesday 4 August 2026 session unless stated. US index levels and daily, weekly and year-to-date percentages are FMP price-change fields for 4 August: S&P 500 7,735.60 (+1.78% on the day, +13.00% year-to-date), Nasdaq 26,584.99 (+2.59%, +14.38%), Dow 54,085.88 (+907.47 points, +1.71%, +12.53%), Russell 2000 3,036.98 (+1.85%, +22.36%). Record checks use FMP end-of-day closes across 2026: the S&P 500’s prior record close was 7,609.77 on 2 June, the Nasdaq peaked at 27,093.90 on 2 June (Tuesday’s close is 1.88% below), and the Dow’s prior record was Monday’s 53,178.41. Single-stock moves are FMP quotes for the 4 August close: Palantir +29.45% to US$162.66 from US$125.65, having reported second-quarter results after Monday’s close; Caterpillar +5.60% to US$876.54 from US$830.03 after opening at US$922.00 following results released before Tuesday’s open; Micron +7.62%, AMD +7.00% to US$518.58, Broadcom +6.61%, Cisco +5.08%, IBM +3.91%, Taiwan Semiconductor ADR +2.72%, Nvidia +2.56%, Apple +1.96%, Tesla +1.64%, Alphabet +1.11%, Microsoft +1.06%, Meta -0.39%, Amazon -2.32% to US$277.42, UnitedHealth -1.84%, Chevron -1.44%, Exxon -0.70%; United Airlines +3.29%, Union Pacific +1.76%, FedEx +1.33%, Delta +1.29%. Dow contribution arithmetic uses FMP dollar change fields, the Dow being weighted by share price: Caterpillar +US$46.51, Goldman Sachs +US$25.92, Amgen +US$11.15, IBM +US$8.84, Home Depot +US$8.22, against UnitedHealth -US$7.65, Amazon -US$6.60 and Chevron -US$2.78. US Treasury yields are the FMP treasury-rates series for 4 August (3M 3.89, 2Y 4.20, 5Y 4.33, 10Y 4.63, 20Y 5.18, 30Y 5.18) against 3 August (3.91, 4.25, 4.40, 4.70, 5.23, 5.23), 28 July (3.90, 4.26, 4.35, 4.61, 5.11, 5.09) and 31 December 2025 (3.67, 3.47, 3.73, 4.18, 4.79, 4.84). Credit spreads are FRED ICE BofA OAS as of the Monday 3 August close, the latest published observation: IG 78, BBB 97, HY 278, CCC & Lower 1,028 after Friday’s 1,034 and Thursday’s 1,006. Global index levels are FMP end-of-day closes for 4 August: KOSPI 6,358.95, TAIEX 43,360.66, Nikkei 63,957.53, Hang Seng 25,852.92, DAX 26,345.00, STOXX 600 656.86. Commodity and crypto levels are FMP end-of-day closes for 4 August: Brent US$79.36 against 83.77 on 3 August and 84.09 on 28 July; WTI US$75.77; gold US$4,152.60; silver US$60.25; copper US$6.64; bitcoin US$64,050.37. Dollar-yen is the FMP forex end-of-day series: 163.844 on 28 July, 157.142 on 3 August and 157.72 on 4 August. Market context verified against Reuters, WSJ, CNBC, MarketWatch, Barron’s, Invezz and Schwab Network reporting via FMP news: US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent saying before Tuesday’s open that a deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could come “today or tomorrow”; Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei stating on 3 August that Iran has no negotiations under way with the United States and that an Iran-Oman agreement alone would not reopen the strait; Palantir’s results and raised outlook driving software and chip shares; Caterpillar’s results and data-centre demand commentary; the White House AI framework exempting open-weight models from government review; the White House expected to extend a Jones Act waiver as the President criticises Exxon and Chevron over fuel prices; the joint US-Japan yen intervention and the 155 level cited as the next test; options buyers chasing the rebound; and the S&P 500’s first record close after a 42-session gap. US calendar times Eastern; overseas releases in local timing. Not investment advice; for informational use only.