Market Pulse — Friday, 14 August 2026

Global Cross-Asset Daily

Producer prices were flat in July. The S&P 500 closed at a record. The Treasury and the oil market moved on their own facts. July producer prices rose 4.7% on the year, below the 4.9% consensus. The S&P 500 rose 0.65% to 7,798.86, its first record close since 7 August. The 2-year yield fell 5 basis points to 4.15%. The afternoon 30-year auction cleared at 5.216%, up from 5.058% in July. Brent fell 2.15% to US$87.07 on the day the US threatened an indefinite naval blockade of Iran. Jobless claims rose to 209,000. The KOSPI climbed 3.56% and now leads the global table for the year.

§ 01 — Equities · United States

The S&P 500 set a record close and the Russell 2000 set its 2026 high for a second day. The S&P 500 rose 0.65% to 7,798.86, above the 7 August record of 7,757.64. The Nasdaq rose 0.81% to 26,803.03, still below its June peak. The Russell 2000 rose 0.24% to 3,052.85, its highest close of 2026 for a second session. The Dow rose 0.13% and is the only US index down for the week, off 0.08%. The record came with jobless claims up at 209,000, above the 202,000 consensus. The VIX rose 0.55% to 14.63, a small rise on a record day.

§ 02 — S&P 500 Sector Map

Thursday 13 Aug · sorted best to worst (1D)

Communications was the best sector on the day and is still the worst of the year. Communications rose 2.07%, lifted by Netflix after Pershing Square disclosed a new stake, and by Charter after final approval of its US$21.9 billion Cox purchase. It remains down 4.39% for 2026. Eight of the eleven sectors rose. Materials was the day’s weakest, down 0.51%. All eleven sectors rose on the week, led by energy at 4.99%. Energy still leads 2026 at 36.57% against technology at 32.51%. The gap narrowed to 4.06 points from 5.32.

Full table · sorted by YTD

§ 03 — Equities · Global

All figures reference Thursday 13 August closes computed from FMP end-of-day data. One-day moves compare with the Wednesday 12 August close, one-week moves with the Thursday 6 August close, and year-to-date with each market’s last 2025 close. Singapore’s market was closed Monday 10 August for the National Day observance, so the STI week covers four sessions.

The KOSPI rose 3.56% and took the year-to-date lead in this table. Seoul followed Wednesday’s 3.68% gain with another 3.56% to 6,813.34, up 8.86% in four sessions. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix led the return to the memory-chip companies sold in July. Its 61.68% year-to-date gain moved ahead of the TAIEX at 58.89%. Seoul closed before US producer prices were released, so Thursday’s rise reflected Wednesday’s US close, not Thursday’s data. The Nikkei rose 1.16% to 68,308.59. Hong Kong and Shanghai are the only markets on this table below their end-2025 levels.

§ 04 — US Treasuries

3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 6M 2Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y

Yields fell after the inflation report. The afternoon auction cleared above July’s sale. The flat producer-price report pulled yields lower across the curve. The 2-year fell 5 basis points to 4.15% and the 10-year fell 5 to 4.63%. The 30-year auction closed in the early afternoon, after that fall in yields, and cleared at 5.216%, 15.8 basis points above July’s sale. On the week the 2-year is down 10 basis points while the 30-year is down just 1, so the fall is concentrated at the shorter maturities. The curve still slopes upward between 3 months and 2 years, so the market is pricing fewer rate increases, not cuts. The 2-year now sits 5 basis points above the 4.10% lower test line.

§ 05 — Credit Spreads

The third credit reading with Brent near US$88 answered the oil question: no. CCC and lower spreads narrowed 3 basis points to 1,020 on Wednesday’s data, after the two oil sessions added a combined 10. Three readings net out to 7 basis points of widening since 7 August, small against a level of 1,020. High yield narrowed 1 basis point to 271 and is 10 basis points tighter for the year. Credit spreads show no oil-related stress.

Credit spreads are FRED ICE BofA option-adjusted spreads (IG BAMLC0A0CM, BBB BAMLC0A4CBBB, HY BAMLH0A0HYM2, CCC & Lower BAMLH0A3HYC) as of the Wednesday 12 August close, the latest observation FRED has published, so this table runs one session behind the rest of this letter. One-day changes reference the Tuesday 11 August close, one-week changes the Wednesday 5 August close, and year-to-date the last 2025 observation. Widening (positive basis points) reads as stress. Narrowing reads as relief.

§ 06 — Digital Assets

Bitcoin’s August range is now ten sessions old. No close in that stretch has left the US$63,000 to US$65,000 band. Thursday ended near flat at US$63,433.09, down 27.50% for the year. The listed treasury companies are diverging. SharpLink will stake US$200 million of ether through Lido to earn yield. Multicoin has exited the US$1.65 billion Solana treasury company it helped launch. That company now holds US$4.5 million of cash and has pledged 52.7% of its Solana against loans. Ether rose 0.39% to US$1,884.84 and Solana rose 0.86% to US$76.21.

Bitcoin’s equity link reflects the historical daily-return pattern, closest to the Nasdaq at about 0.5 and loosest to the Dow at about 0.4. Crypto trades continuously. Levels shown are FMP end-of-day closes for Thursday 13 August. Daily moves compare with the Wednesday 12 August close, weekly moves with the Thursday 6 August close, and year-to-date with the 31 December 2025 close.

§ 07 — Metals & Energy

Brent fell 2.15% to US$87.07 on the day the US said its naval blockade of Iran could stay in place indefinitely. That is the first close below the US$87.72 marker since the line was set at Monday’s close. Wednesday’s 17.4 million barrel inventory build outweighed the blockade news on the day. Diesel now costs more than jet fuel in Europe for the first time in over a year, a refined-products shortage. Gold fell 1.05% to US$4,420.40, still 1.83% above its 4,341.10 marker before Friday’s deciding close. Natural gas fell 2.75% after a larger-than-expected storage build.

§ 08 — Economic Calendar

US release times are Eastern. Overseas releases are shown in local-market timing (China activity data lands Sunday night US time). Consensus and priors are FMP-sourced. The first row is today’s retail sales report, dated Friday. Next week opens with China’s July activity data and Canadian inflation, then Wednesday carries the July Fed minutes and the 20-year auction.

July retail sales are released this morning. Consensus expects a 0.1% rise. Michigan sentiment and inflation expectations follow. Monday brings China’s July activity data and Canadian inflation. Wednesday carries the July Fed minutes and the 20-year auction.

§ 09 — Macro Themes

1 · Producer costs are still rising faster than consumer prices. July producer prices rose 4.7% against consumer inflation of 3.4%, and the core measure that strips food, energy and trade rose 0.4% on the month, four times the consensus. The flat headline came from cheaper energy. Underlying cost pressure has not cleared.

2 · Long-term borrowing costs rose on a good inflation day. Yields fell in the morning after the producer-price report. The 30-year auction cleared in the afternoon at 5.216%, above July’s 5.058%. Buyers of 30-year bonds required more compensation than a month ago. Wednesday’s 20-year auction, against a July result of 5.163%, repeats the test.

3 · Seoul leads the year. Borrowed money is part of the rally. The KOSPI added 8.86% in four sessions as buyers returned to Samsung and SK Hynix, and tops this letter’s global table at 61.68% for 2026. Borrowed money amplified July’s fall in the same names and is building again.

4 · Fed officials remain split after two soft reports. Cleveland Fed president Hammack repeated her call for an immediate rate increase on the day of the flat report. Market pricing moved toward a September hold. Wednesday’s minutes will show how many participants beyond the three dissenters argued for an increase in July.

§ 10 — Analysis & Nuances

Record margins and rising input costs are both true, for now. Producer prices have risen faster than consumer prices all year, 4.7% against 3.4% in July, which normally squeezes profits. The S&P 500’s second-quarter net profit margin is running at 16.9%, the highest since the data began in 2009. The two fit together because the pressure is not evenly shared. The index is weighted toward large technology companies that can set prices, while smaller producers absorb the increases. This morning’s retail sales report tests the balance. A strong reading means companies are charging more without losing sales, which supports profits but raises the August inflation readings, when the oil rise also arrives. A weak reading protects the inflation picture and puts the margin record at risk.

Scorecard. The 30-year test set yesterday asked for an auction result at 5.20% or higher and a Friday close at or above 5.24%. The auction leg passed at 5.216%. The yield leg stands at 5.21% with one session left, so the test closes in Monday’s letter. The Brent marker flipped from confirmed to breached in a day. Two consecutive closes below 87.72 would mean the strait premium is unwinding. The credit question closed at no after a third calm reading. The KOSPI floor at 6,257.45 and the gold marker at 4,341.10 remain above their lines into Friday. The 2-year is 5 basis points from the 4.10% line.

FAIRCURVE · MARKET PULSE · 14 AUG 2026 · Data: Financial Modeling Prep and FRED (ICE BofA credit spreads). All figures reference the Thursday 13 August 2026 session unless stated. Not investment advice. For informational use only.