Market Pulse — Monday, 13 July 2026

Global Cross-Asset Daily

Friday was the calmest session of the summer; the weekend was not. The VIX slipped near 15, ten of the eleven S&P sectors rose and the S&P 500 added 0.42% — but the leaders were Materials, Staples and Communications rather than the usual technology names, and the Russell 2000 fell 0.49% as Treasury yields rose. Over the weekend the United States and Iran exchanged a third round of strikes around the Strait of Hormuz, lifting oil and sending US equity futures lower before Monday’s open. The week ahead is the heaviest of the summer: Tuesday’s June CPI, Wednesday’s PPI and China GDP, Warsh’s first congressional testimony as Fed chair, and the first big-bank earnings. Rates were the exception: the 10-year yield rose 7 basis points last week to 4.56%, and the front end now prices close to two rate increases by spring 2027.

§ 01 — Equities · United States

A broad advance without its usual leaders. Friday’s gains were broad but modest: the S&P 500 rose 0.42% and the Nasdaq 0.29%, yet technology was among the weakest gainers while Materials and Consumer Staples led. Small caps fell — the Russell 2000 dropped 0.49% as Treasury yields rose, since the group is more sensitive to borrowing costs than to growth. Over the full week the order reverses: the Nasdaq (+1.08%) led while the Dow (-0.36%) and Russell (-0.64%) lagged, so most of the week’s gains still came from the technology names that were quiet on Friday. Leadership that changes this fast usually reflects investors rotating quickly, not a settled trend.

§ 02 — S&P 500 Sector Map

Friday 10 Jul · sorted best to worst (1D)

Friday mostly reversed the week’s weakest sectors. Ten of the eleven sectors rose, with only Health Care (-0.82%) lower; Materials led at +1.25%, then Consumer Staples +1.11% and Communications +1.02%, an unusual mix of cyclical and defensive names. The weekly ranking is the opposite: only Energy (+3.81%), Technology (+1.71%) and Communications (+1.42%) finished higher, and Materials was the week’s worst at -1.98% — so Friday was largely a rebound in what had just been sold. For the year the ranking is unchanged and concentrated: Technology (+29.04%) and Energy (+23.19%) lead, and Communications (-5.16%) is the only deeply negative sector. A single broad session does not change that two sectors still dominate the year’s gains.

Full table · sorted by YTD

§ 03 — Equities · Global

All figures reference Friday 10 July closes. TAIEX is shown as of Thursday 9 July — FMP had not yet posted Taiwan’s Friday close at run time. Nikkei, KOSPI, TAIEX, Hang Seng, Shanghai and the Straits Times are computed directly from the FMP end-of-day close series; Europe uses the FMP price-change series. One-week moves for US equities and Treasuries compare with the Thursday 2 July close (Friday 3 July was the observed US Independence Day holiday); Asian and European markets compare with Friday 3 July. Year-to-date uses each market’s last 2025 close, verified against FMP data this run.

Korea gave back its surge while Hong Kong and Singapore led. The KOSPI rose 2.52% on Friday but still fell 7.57% on the week as its late-June run unwound, leaving it up 77.40% on the year — by far the strongest major market. Hong Kong (+3.53%) and Singapore (+4.29%) led the week, with the Straits Times at fresh highs and up 17.71% in 2026, while Japan added 1.20% on Friday but slipped 1.70% over the week. Europe was uniformly weak: every major index fell on the week, the DAX most at -3.03%. Across Asia the story last week was dispersion rather than a single direction — the same five sessions gave Korea its worst run and Singapore its best.

§ 04 — US Treasuries

3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 6M 2Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y

Yields rose in every session last week. Friday’s move was small and led by the front end — the 2-year up 5 basis points to 4.21% and the 30-year up just 1 — which left the curve slightly flatter. The weekly move was larger and roughly even across maturities, with the 10-year up 7 basis points to 4.56%; futures now imply close to two rate increases by spring 2027. Almost all of the year’s rise sits at the short end, where the 2-year is up 74 basis points against 22 at the 30-year — a repricing of policy rather than of growth. Tuesday’s CPI is the next test of that repricing.

§ 05 — Credit Spreads

Calm at the index level, widening at the bottom. Investment grade (76 basis points) and BBB (94) barely moved, and broad high yield tightened 5 basis points on the week to 270 — spreads across the bulk of the credit market are narrow and steady. The exceptions matter. CCC & Lower, the weakest tier of junk, sits at 974 basis points and is 89 wider on the year — the only rating band wider in 2026 — and it widened again last week. Separately, single-name credit-default-swap costs on several AI leaders have reportedly reached multi-month highs. The names driving the equity rally are the same ones where the cost of default protection is rising, which the headline index level does not show.

Credit spreads are FRED ICE BofA option-adjusted spreads (IG BAMLC0A0CM, BBB BAMLC0A4CBBB, HY BAMLH0A0HYM2, CCC & Lower BAMLH0A3HYC) as of the Thursday 9 July close — FRED publishes with a one-business-day lag, so Friday’s session is not yet reflected. Widening (positive bp) reads as stress.

§ 06 — Digital Assets

The equity rally has not reached crypto. Bitcoin has recovered part of a steep summer selloff but is still about 27% lower on the year and near half its record high; Ether was the week’s best of the three, up 1.53%, helped by Robinhood’s new layer-2 launch, while Solana fell 5.13% despite seasonal “Solana summer” optimism. The notable corporate signal is that Strategy, the largest corporate holder, has disclosed selling bitcoin — a break from its long-standing buy-and-hold stance. With US equities near records and crypto still deeply negative for the year, the pressure on these coins comes from more than one place: higher Treasury yields and, now, a large holder turning seller.

Bitcoin’s equity correlation reflects the historical daily-return pattern — closest to the Nasdaq at about 0.5, loosest to the Dow at about 0.4. Spot levels are FMP quote fields at the run-time snapshot on Monday morning Singapore time; daily, weekly and year-to-date moves are the FMP price-change series. Crypto trades continuously, so weekend moves are captured here while equity figures stop at Friday’s close.

§ 07 — Metals & Energy

Energy led the week, and the weekend added to it. Brent rose 5.58% and WTI 3.96% over the week on the Iran risk premium, even after both eased on Friday (Brent -0.38%), and the weekend strikes pushed crude higher again. Metals diverged from energy: gold fell 0.65% on Friday and is down 5.24% on the year, its usual safe-haven bid absent as real yields rose, while silver lost 3.47% on the week and natural gas dropped 9.40%. The geopolitical premium is showing up in oil rather than in gold — and after the weekend it is larger again.

§ 08 — Economic Calendar

US release times Eastern; overseas releases shown in local-market timing. Consensus and priors are FMP-sourced. Tuesday's US June CPI and the start of second-quarter bank earnings are the week's main events.

Tuesday’s CPI is the week’s most important release. Headline June inflation is expected to cool to 3.9% from 4.2%, while core holds at 2.9% and the monthly core reading ticks up to 0.3% from 0.2% — a softer headline over firmer underlying prices. PPI follows on Wednesday (0.2% from a hot 1.1%), alongside China’s second-quarter GDP, seen slowing to 4.4% from 5.0%, with US retail sales on Thursday. Two events sit outside the data releases: Warsh’s first congressional testimony as Fed chair, and the start of big-bank earnings — the first detailed read on credit quality since the CCC tier began to widen.

§ 09 — Macro Themes

1 · Priced for calm, ahead of a heavy week. Friday’s VIX near 15 and ten-of-eleven advancing sectors showed that investors had largely set aside the Iran risk — and then the weekend brought fresh strikes and a contested Strait of Hormuz. Investors have repeatedly discounted the all-clear a step ahead of events this summer; this week offers four fresh tests of that, in CPI, PPI, bank earnings and Warsh’s testimony.

2 · The sector leading the rally is also the Fed’s main inflation worry. Technology led the year (+29.04%) and was one of only three sectors higher on the week (+1.71%), and it is the same group the June Fed minutes named — through AI-related investment — as a source of more persistent inflation. When the leadership of the rally and the central bank’s main price concern are the same trade, the inflation data that moves that trade matters more than usual.

3 · Economists now expect stickier inflation. The Wall Street Journal’s latest survey shows forecasters lowering their recession odds but raising their inflation path, judging that the Iran war has left price pressure more persistent. That view sits behind last week’s rise in yields and places Tuesday’s CPI at the center of the debate.

§ 10 — Analysis & Nuances

Friday’s breadth was real, but it looked more like a rebound than the start of a new advance. Ten sectors closed higher, yet technology was among the weakest and the leaders were Materials and Staples — the very groups that had lagged all week — while small caps fell as yields rose. A broad up-day built on the week’s laggards, with technology and the other usual leaders lagging, is better read as prices snapping back after a weak week than as fresh conviction.

The test this week is simple: does a softer headline cool the front end, or does firmer core keep it pricing hikes? A June CPI at or below the 3.9% consensus with core stuck at 2.9% would let equities hold their ground while the 2-year holds its near-two-hike pricing — the same tension that has persisted through the summer. The signal to watch is the weakest credit after Tuesday’s release: if risk assets rally while CCC (974 basis points) keeps widening, that gap between price and credit is the more useful read.

FAIRCURVE · MARKET PULSE · 13 JUL 2026 · Data via Financial Modeling Prep MCP (quote / price-change, end-of-day index and commodity charts, treasury-rates, economics calendar, news) and FRED (ICE BofA OAS credit spreads via the keyed FRED API). Daily returns reference the Friday 10 July 2026 session. One-week moves for US equities and Treasuries compare with the Thursday 2 July close (Friday 3 July was the observed US Independence Day holiday); Asian and European markets compare with Friday 3 July. Year-to-date uses each market’s last 2025 close, verified against FMP end-of-day data. Nikkei, KOSPI, TAIEX, Hang Seng, Shanghai and the Straits Times moves are computed directly from FMP end-of-day closes (see global-table note); TAIEX reflects the Thursday 9 July close, the latest FMP had posted at run time. UST yields are the FMP treasury-rates series as of Friday 10 July. Credit spreads are FRED ICE BofA OAS as of the Thursday 9 July close (one-business-day publication lag). Commodity figures are Friday 10 July settlements; crypto levels reflect the run-time snapshot on Monday morning Singapore time. Weekend US–Iran strikes, the Strait of Hormuz dispute and the oil / equity-futures reaction via WSJ, CNBC, MarketWatch and Barron’s; the AI-versus-oil framing of the rally via MarketWatch; single-name AI credit-default-swap widening via Seeking Alpha; the “war leaves inflation more persistent” economist survey via WSJ; Fed Chair Warsh testimony and bank-earnings previews via MarketWatch, Investopedia and Bloomberg; Robinhood layer-2 and Strategy’s bitcoin sale via Crypto Briefing / Blockonomi; market pricing of roughly two 2027 rate increases via Seeking Alpha (weekly commentary). The Bitcoin–Nasdaq correlation is the historical daily-return pattern (tightest to the Nasdaq at about 0.5, loosest to the Dow at about 0.4). US calendar times Eastern; overseas releases in local timing. Not investment advice; for informational use only.