NASDAQ: ACGL · Diversified Insurance
Arch Capital Group (ACGL) fair value and price range
As of 28 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Arch Capital Group (ACGL) at $113.45 a share. The stock last closed at $93.60, which puts the model's fair value 21.2% above the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Arch Capital Group Ltd.
Faircurve Insights · 28 Sep 2026
Arch Capital Group Ltd. provides insurance, reinsurance, and mortgage insurance products in the United States, Canada, Bermuda, the United Kingdom, Europe, and Australia.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $113.45 a share for Arch Capital Group Ltd. on 28 Sep 2026. This is the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 19 Sep 2026, gave $119.72, a move of -5.2%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $95.18 to $138.33; ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low.
The model compares Arch Capital Group Ltd. with The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. and American International Group, Inc. The stock's moves around its last 8 earnings reports were: 28 Jul 2026 +0.6%, 28 Apr 2026 -3.8%, 9 Feb 2026 -3.1%, 27 Oct 2025 -2.8%, 29 Jul 2025 -1.0%, 29 Apr 2025 -0.6%, 10 Feb 2025 -4.2%, and 30 Oct 2024 -6.0%. The median size, ignoring direction, was 2.9%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 28 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give ACGL?
The calibrated range for ACGL over 63 trading days is $95.18 to $138.33. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is below this range. For names with fair value 15 to 30% above price, the calibrated range has held the price 50% of the time over 63 trading days, and 47% ended below it; the typical move was +4.1%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $92.79 to $136.64. In 77% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does ACGL compare with similar companies?
The companies in diversified insurance closest to Arch Capital Group in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HIG The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. | $126.05 | $156.84 | +24.4% | Undervalued |
| AIG American International Group, Inc. | $74.93 | $86.58 | +15.5% | Undervalued |
| GNW Genworth Financial, Inc. | $9.55 | $9.06 | -5.1% | Low evidence grade |
| BRK-B Berkshire Hathaway Inc. | $502.65 | $424.04 | -15.6% | Low evidence grade |
All diversified insurance stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does ACGL report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Arch Capital Group's next earnings report is scheduled for 26 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How ACGL moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 2.9%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 28 Jul 2026 | +0.6% |
| 28 Apr 2026 | -3.8% |
| 9 Feb 2026 | -3.1% |
| 27 Oct 2025 | -2.8% |
| 29 Jul 2025 | -1.0% |
| 29 Apr 2025 | -0.6% |
| 10 Feb 2025 | -4.2% |
| 30 Oct 2024 | -6.0% |
Arch Capital Group at a glance
Arch Capital Group Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance, reinsurance, and mortgage insurance products in the United States, Canada, Bermuda, the United Kingdom, Europe, and Australia.
- Market value
- $33.1B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Diversified Insurance
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -17.0%
- Analysts with estimates
- 12
- Beta to the US market
- -0.25
- First valued by Faircurve
- 4 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Arch Capital Group on the share price against the net assets on the balance sheet, adjusted for the earnings analysts expect (price to book value), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for ACGL was $119.72. As of 28 Sep 2026 it is $113.45, a change of -5.2%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Arch Capital Group's valuation
Is Arch Capital Group stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts ACGL's fair value at $113.45 a share against a last close of $93.60, as of 28 Sep 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is ACGL's fair value?
$113.45 a share as of 28 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $92.79 to $136.64.
What price range does the model give ACGL?
$95.18 to $138.33 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Arch Capital Group report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 26 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has ACGL moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 2.9%, ignoring direction. The largest was -6.0% around the report of 30 Oct 2024.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for ACGL is low. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.