NYSE: ADC · Retail REITs
Agree Realty (ADC) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Agree Realty (ADC) at $53.82 a share. The stock last closed at $68.86, which puts the model's fair value 21.8% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Overvalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 3 Nov 2026. Agree Realty Corporation.
The report adds the live price, the price chart and the next earnings date. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $51.47 to $53.82 (+4.6%). The model does not yet explain moves on this valuation method.
What the model makes of itThe price of $68.86 is 21.8% above it: Overvalued, on a high evidence grade.
What's nextNext report on 9 Feb 2027. On the model's Earnings Momentum list since 26 Oct 2026 (a strategy with a proving record). The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give ADC?
The calibrated range for ADC over 63 trading days is $43.60 to $64.29. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 10,454 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is above this range. For names with fair value 15%+ below price, the calibrated range has held the price 35% of the time over 63 trading days, and 64% ended above it; the typical move was −4.7%.
The model's own range is $49.23 to $58.63.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Agree Realty Corporation (ADC) functions as a publicly traded Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT), concentrating its efforts on the acquisition and development of commercial properties. The stock is listed under Real Estate, in the Retail REITs group.
Faircurve's model put the fair value at $53.82 a share on 31 Oct 2026. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $51.47, so the fair value moved +4.6%. In the model's own words, it does not yet explain moves on this valuation method. The fair value blends three methods: a cash-flow multiple against comparable companies, a dividend model, and the value of the properties. The range over 63 trading days is $43.60 to $64.29. It is built from the fair value, since there is no live options data for the stock, and it is calibrated weekly against realised prices (10,454 past valuations, refreshed that day). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence High. For REITs, that grade looks at the dividend record: at least three years of paid dividends with no cut. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
The sheet gives no quality score for the business, so this note does not report one against peers. The model compares the company with seven companies, each with a fair value of its own on the site: NNN REIT, Inc. (NNN), Brixmor Property Group Inc. (BRX), Federal Realty Investment Trust (FRT), Regency Centers Corporation (REG), Kite Realty Group Trust (KRG), Phillips Edison & Co. (PECO) and Kimco Realty Corporation (KIM). The Macerich Company (MAC) is also a comparable, but it has no verdict on this date.
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does ADC report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Agree Realty's next earnings report is scheduled for 9 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across ADC's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 2.0%.
How does ADC compare with similar companies?
The companies in retail reits closest to Agree Realty in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NNN NNN REIT, Inc. | $41.69 | $44.70 | +7.2% | Fairly valued |
| BRX Brixmor Property Group Inc. | $29.41 | $31.80 | +8.1% | Fairly valued |
| FRT Federal Realty Investment Trust | $111.64 | $100.58 | -9.9% | Overvalued |
| MAC The Macerich Company | $24.74 | $8.42 | -66.0% | Gap wider than 60% |
| REG Regency Centers Corporation | $75.17 | $55.99 | -25.5% | Overvalued |
| KRG Kite Realty Group Trust | $25.42 | $36.37 | +43.1% | Undervalued |
| PECO Phillips Edison & Co. | $39.58 | $34.50 | -12.8% | Overvalued |
| KIM Kimco Realty Corporation | $24.99 | $19.72 | -21.1% | Overvalued |
Agree Realty at a glance
Agree Realty Corporation functions as a publicly traded Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT), concentrating its efforts on the acquisition and development of commercial properties.
- Market value
- $8.3B
- Sector
- Real Estate
- Industry
- Retail REITs
- Beta to the US market
- -0.37
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 3 Nov 2026, 52.1% of the 1,081 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. ADC was not among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model values Agree Realty three ways and blends them; the range around the fair value comes from 2,000 simulations of the dividend model. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for ADC was $51.47. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $53.82, a change of +4.6%. The model does not yet explain moves on this valuation method. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Agree Realty's valuation
Is Agree Realty stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, ADC reads as Overvalued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $53.82 a share against a last close of $68.86, a gap of -21.8%.
What is ADC's fair value?
$53.82 a share as of 31 Oct 2026. The fair value blends three methods: a cash-flow multiple against comparable companies, a dividend model, and the value of the properties. The model's own range is $49.23 to $58.63.
What price range does the model give ADC?
$43.60 to $64.29 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 10,454 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Agree Realty report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 9 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has ADC moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 2.0%, ignoring direction. The largest was -3.6% around the report of 21 Apr 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for ADC is high. For real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at the dividend record: at least three years of paid dividends with no cut. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on ADC
The model has an idea open on ADC under Earnings Momentum since 26 Oct 2026, a strategy with a proving record. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on ADC with their outcomes. A free account is enough.