NASDAQ: ADSK · Application Software
Autodesk (ADSK) fair value and price range
As of 30 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Autodesk (ADSK) at $253.74 a share. The stock last closed at $212.00, which puts the model's fair value 19.7% above the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Autodesk, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 30 Sep 2026
Autodesk, Inc. delivers advanced software and services for 3D design, engineering, and entertainment to a global clientele. It operates in Technology, Application Software.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $253.74 a share on 30 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 26 Sep 2026 gave $267.03, so the fair value moved -5.0%. The model's calibrated range over 63 trading days is $189.95 to $256.86, built around the price from the stock's own options and calibrated weekly against realised prices, which held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low.
The business scores 75 out of 100 for overall quality against comparable companies. Its profitability is 90, with ROIC at 56.0% against a peer median of 8.6%. Its earnings quality is 71, with FCF / net income at 1.72x against a peer median of 1.32x. The model compares it with Veeva Systems Inc., Strategy Inc, Roper Technologies, Inc., and Datadog, Inc. The stock moved around its last 8 earnings reports with a median size of 4.0%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 30 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give ADSK?
The calibrated range for ADSK over 63 trading days is $189.95 to $256.86. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that ADSK's own options imply (43% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $178.71 to $358.41. In 70% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does ADSK score on business quality?
Autodesk's overall quality score is 75 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 90 | 56.0%ROIC | 8.6% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 71 | 1.72xFCF / net income | 1.32x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 76 | 17.5%Revenue growth, trailing | 14.1% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 73 | 5.1%Net buybacks / market value | 1.8% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 68 | -0.17xNet debt / EBITDA | 0.52x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 45 | 2.2 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.1 pts |
How does ADSK compare with similar companies?
The companies in application software closest to Autodesk in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VEEV Veeva Systems Inc. | $273.33 | $256.44 | -6.2% | Fairly valued |
| WDAY Workday, Inc. | $186.14 | $195.08 | +4.8% | Low evidence grade |
| MSTR Strategy Inc | $160.01 | $141.45 | -11.6% | Fairly valued |
| ROP Roper Technologies, Inc. | $354.32 | $355.03 | +0.2% | Fairly valued |
| INTU Intuit Inc. | $281.08 | $372.11 | +32.4% | Low evidence grade |
| CDNS Cadence Design Systems, Inc. | $351.35 | $340.24 | -3.2% | Low evidence grade |
| ADBE Adobe Inc. | $237.69 | $266.08 | +11.9% | Low evidence grade |
| DDOG Datadog, Inc. | $277.22 | $232.21 | -16.2% | Overvalued |
When does ADSK report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Autodesk's next earnings report is scheduled for 24 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 6.4% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. ADSK's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 12.3% over one month.
How ADSK moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 4.0%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 27 Aug 2026 | +2.3% |
| 28 May 2026 | -2.4% |
| 26 Feb 2026 | +9.4% |
| 25 Nov 2025 | +4.0% |
| 28 Aug 2025 | +10.1% |
| 22 May 2025 | +0.8% |
| 27 Feb 2025 | -4.0% |
| 27 Nov 2024 | -8.2% |
Autodesk at a glance
Autodesk, Inc. delivers advanced software and services for 3D design, engineering, and entertainment to a global clientele.
- Market value
- $44.2B
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Application Software
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $8.9B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +15.5%
- Analysts with estimates
- 20
- Beta to the US market
- 0.47
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Autodesk on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for ADSK was $267.03. As of 30 Sep 2026 it is $253.74, a change of -5.0%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Autodesk's valuation
Is Autodesk stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts ADSK's fair value at $253.74 a share against a last close of $212.00, as of 30 Sep 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is ADSK's fair value?
$253.74 a share as of 30 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $178.71 to $358.41.
What price range does the model give ADSK?
$189.95 to $256.86 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Autodesk report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 24 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has ADSK moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 4.0%, ignoring direction. The largest was +10.1% around the report of 28 Aug 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for ADSK is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.