NASDAQ: APOG · Construction Materials
Apogee Enterprises (APOG) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 28 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Apogee Enterprises (APOG) at $44.79 a share. The stock last closed at $35.62, which puts the model's fair value 25.7% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Apogee Enterprises, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 28 Sep 2026
Apogee Enterprises, Inc. provides architectural products and services for enclosing buildings. The company also provides glass and acrylic products used for preservation, protection, and enhanced viewing in the United States, Canada, and Brazil.
On 28 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model valued Apogee Enterprises, Inc. at $44.79 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 19 Sep 2026, gave $44.39, so the fair value moved +0.9%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $37.58 to $54.61, built from the fair value. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, over 4,327 past valuations. The evidence grade is Medium.
The overall quality score for Apogee Enterprises, Inc. is 75 out of 100, against comparable companies. The model compares it with Knife River Corporation (KNF), Griffon Corporation (GFF), Trex Company, Inc. (TREX), Eagle Materials Inc. (EXP), and Armstrong World Industries, Inc. (AWI). Moves around the last 8 earnings reports show a median size of 9.0%, ignoring direction.
Written from the figures on this page for the 28 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give APOG?
The calibrated range for APOG over 63 trading days is $37.58 to $54.61. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is below this range. For names with fair value 15 to 30% above price, the calibrated range has held the price 50% of the time over 63 trading days, and 47% ended below it; the typical move was +4.1%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $33.96 to $57.06. In 72% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does APOG score on business quality?
Apogee Enterprises's overall quality score is 75 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 77 | 10.7%ROIC | -4.5% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 90 | 1.80xFCF / net income | |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 47 | 3.2%Revenue growth, trailing | -0.5% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 90 | 3.2%Net buybacks / market value | 1.4% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 56 | 1.68xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.65x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 98 | 0.9 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 5.1 pts |
How does APOG compare with similar companies?
The companies in construction materials closest to Apogee Enterprises in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NX Quanex Building Products Corporation | $19.00 | $19.77 | +4.1% | Low evidence grade |
| KNF Knife River Corporation | $50.33 | $45.94 | -8.7% | Fairly valued |
| GFF Griffon Corporation | $93.97 | $101.20 | +7.7% | Fairly valued |
| TREX Trex Company, Inc. | $43.56 | $43.15 | -0.9% | Fairly valued |
| EXP Eagle Materials Inc. | $171.36 | $180.68 | +5.4% | Fairly valued |
| BLDR Builders FirstSource, Inc. | $56.25 | $57.64 | +2.5% | Low evidence grade |
| AWI Armstrong World Industries, Inc. | $163.12 | $169.45 | +3.9% | Fairly valued |
| ACA Arcosa, Inc. | $146.50 | $146.91 | +0.3% | Low evidence grade |
All construction materials stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does APOG report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Apogee Enterprises's next earnings report is scheduled for 8 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 29 Sep 2026 imply a move of about 13.9% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 51 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How APOG moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 9.0%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 26 Jun 2026 | +8.5% |
| 24 Apr 2026 | +5.2% |
| 7 Jan 2026 | -9.4% |
| 9 Oct 2025 | -8.6% |
| 27 Jun 2025 | +2.3% |
| 24 Apr 2025 | -16.0% |
| 7 Jan 2025 | -26.2% |
| 4 Oct 2024 | +15.2% |
Apogee Enterprises at a glance
Apogee Enterprises, Inc. provides architectural products and services for enclosing buildings, and glass and acrylic products used for preservation, protection, and enhanced viewing in the United States, Canada, and Brazil.
- Market value
- $775M
- Sector
- Basic Materials
- Industry
- Construction Materials
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $1.5B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +3.8%
- Analysts with estimates
- 2
- Beta to the US market
- 0.75
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Apogee Enterprises on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the revenue analysts expect next year (forward EV/Sales), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for APOG was $44.39. As of 28 Sep 2026 it is $44.79, a change of +0.9%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Apogee Enterprises's valuation
Is Apogee Enterprises stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, APOG reads as Undervalued as of 28 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $44.79 a share against a last close of $35.62, a gap of +25.7%.
What is APOG's fair value?
$44.79 a share as of 28 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $33.96 to $57.06.
What price range does the model give APOG?
$37.58 to $54.61 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Apogee Enterprises report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 8 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has APOG moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 9.0%, ignoring direction. The largest was -26.2% around the report of 7 Jan 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for APOG is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.