NYSE: ARES · Asset Management
Ares Management (ARES) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Ares Management (ARES) at $86.00 a share. The stock last closed at $117.55, which puts the model's fair value 26.8% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Overvalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Ares Management Corporation.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
Ares Management Corporation functions as an investment firm specializing in alternative assets, with operations spanning the United States, Europe, and Asia.
Faircurve's model on 3 Oct 2026 gave a fair value of $86.00 a share. This was the midpoint of 2,000 simulations and represented a -4.0% move from the previous run on 26 Sep 2026, which gave $89.57. The calibrated range over 63 trading days was $103.97 to $145.68, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model's evidence grade was Medium.
The company's overall quality score was 42 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compared it with Ameriprise Financial, Inc., Apollo Global Management, Inc., and T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. Moves around the last 8 earnings reports ranged from +11.6% on 31 Jul 2026 to -4.9% on 5 Feb 2026, with a median size of 2.5%, ignoring direction.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give ARES?
The calibrated range for ARES over 63 trading days is $103.97 to $145.68. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that ARES's own options imply (48% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $59.47 to $118.86. In 21% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does ARES score on business quality?
Ares Management's overall quality score is 42 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 25 | 5.7%ROIC | 8.8% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 55 | 1.31xFCF / net income | 1.06x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 55 | 66.6%Revenue growth, trailing | 19.2% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 50 | 1.3%Net buybacks / market value | 1.3% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 35 | 5.24xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.44x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 38 | 8.7 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 6.8 pts |
How does ARES compare with similar companies?
The companies in asset management closest to Ares Management in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMP Ameriprise Financial, Inc. | $490.91 | $672.41 | +37.0% | Undervalued |
| NTRS Northern Trust Corporation | $171.40 | $143.65 | -16.2% | Low evidence grade |
| STT State Street Corporation | $175.96 | $168.83 | -4.1% | Low evidence grade |
| RJF Raymond James Financial, Inc. | $158.21 | $170.99 | +8.1% | Low evidence grade |
| PFG Principal Financial Group, Inc. | $111.96 | $123.41 | +10.2% | Low evidence grade |
| APO Apollo Global Management, Inc. | $114.02 | $151.20 | +32.6% | Undervalued |
| TROW T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. | $104.62 | $128.28 | +22.6% | Undervalued |
| KKR KKR & Co. Inc. | $90.29 | $70.76 | -21.6% | Low evidence grade |
When does ARES report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Ares Management's next earnings report is scheduled for 2 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 6.8% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. ARES's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 13.7% over one month.
How ARES moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 2.5%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 31 Jul 2026 | +11.6% |
| 1 May 2026 | +2.2% |
| 5 Feb 2026 | -4.9% |
| 3 Nov 2025 | +2.9% |
| 1 Aug 2025 | +1.6% |
| 5 May 2025 | +1.6% |
| 5 Feb 2025 | -1.9% |
| 1 Nov 2024 | -4.8% |
Ares Management at a glance
Ares Management Corporation functions as an investment firm specializing in alternative assets, with operations spanning the United States, Europe, and Asia.
- Market value
- $40.1B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Asset Management
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $6.3B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -15.2%
- Analysts with estimates
- 12
- Beta to the US market
- 1.72
- First valued by Faircurve
- 4 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Ares Management on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for ARES was $89.57. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $86.00, a change of -4.0%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Ares Management's valuation
Is Ares Management stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, ARES reads as Overvalued as of 3 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $86.00 a share against a last close of $117.55, a gap of -26.8%.
What is ARES's fair value?
$86.00 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $59.47 to $118.86.
What price range does the model give ARES?
$103.97 to $145.68 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Ares Management report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 2 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has ARES moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 2.5%, ignoring direction. The largest was +11.6% around the report of 31 Jul 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for ARES is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.