NASDAQ: ARM · Semiconductors
Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares (ARM) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 10 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares (ARM) at $232.41 a share. The stock last closed at $255.39, which puts the model's fair value 9.0% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 13 Oct 2026. Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 10 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $268.33 to $232.41 (-13.4%). The multiple the model anchors on moved, lowering the fair value: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $255.39 is 9.0% above it: Fairly valued, on a medium evidence grade.
What's nextReports on 4 Nov 2026. Options prices imply a move of about 20% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 17 Oct 2026.
What price range does the model give ARM?
The calibrated range for ARM over 63 trading days is $208.30 to $341.92. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that ARM's own options imply (71% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,266 past valuations, refreshed 10 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $161.85 to $331.48. In 37% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 10 Oct 2026
Arm Holdings plc is a leading technology firm that conceptualizes, engineers, and licenses core processing unit (CPU) designs and complementary technologies.
Faircurve's model valued Arm Holdings plc at $232.41 a share on 10 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 3 Oct 2026 gave $268.33, moving the fair value -13.4% because the multiple the model anchors on moved, lowering the fair value. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $208.30 to $341.92, built around the price from the volatility the stock's own options imply, calibrated weekly against realised prices (4,266 past valuations, refreshed 10 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence as Medium.
The model’s overall quality score for Arm Holdings plc is 59 out of 100, a composite of six quality factors against comparable companies. The Balance sheet scores 100, with Net debt / EBITDA at -1.87x against a peer median of 0.47x. Earnings quality scores 76, with FCF / net income at 1.41x against a peer median of 1.16x. Capital discipline scores 12, with Net buybacks / market value at 0.1% against a peer median of 0.7%. The model compares Arm Holdings plc with Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN), KLA Corporation (KLAC), Lam Research Corporation (LRCX), Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT), Analog Devices, Inc. (ADI), QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM), and Intel Corp. (INTC).
Written from the figures on this page for the 10 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does ARM report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares's next earnings report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 13 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 8.5% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 9 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. ARM's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 20.4% over one month.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across ARM's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 4.7%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in ARM
How does ARM score on business quality?
Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares's overall quality score is 59 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 50 | 12.2%ROIC | 19.6% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 76 | 1.41xFCF / net income | 1.16x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 70 | 22.8%Revenue growth, trailing | 34.3% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 12 | 0.1%Net buybacks / market value | 0.7% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 100 | -1.87xNet debt / EBITDA | 0.47x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 37 | 6.6 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 3.4 pts |
How does ARM compare with similar companies?
The companies in semiconductors closest to Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TXN Texas Instruments Incorporated | $287.85 | $278.27 | -3.3% | Fairly valued |
| KLAC KLA Corporation | $184.00 | $197.99 | +7.6% | Fairly valued |
| MRVL Marvell Technology, Inc. | $268.73 | $257.26 | -4.3% | Low evidence grade |
| LRCX Lam Research Corporation | $301.11 | $342.43 | +13.7% | Fairly valued |
| AMAT Applied Materials, Inc. | $464.24 | $584.87 | +26.0% | Undervalued |
| ADI Analog Devices, Inc. | $414.70 | $423.34 | +2.1% | Fairly valued |
| QCOM QUALCOMM Incorporated | $176.86 | $221.06 | +25.0% | Undervalued |
| INTC Intel Corp. | $102.81 | $96.75 | -5.9% | Fairly valued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for ARM, the peer-implied price, is $67.38 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares at a glance
Arm Holdings plc is a leading technology firm that conceptualizes, engineers, and licenses core processing unit (CPU) designs and complementary technologies.
- Market value
- $284.4B
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Semiconductors
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $7.2B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +23.5%
- Analysts with estimates
- 19
- Beta to the US market
- 3.21
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 13 Oct 2026, 53.0% of the 1,094 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. ARM was not among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 3 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for ARM was $268.33. As of 10 Oct 2026 it is $232.41, a change of -13.4%. The multiple the model anchors on moved, lowering the fair value: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares's valuation
Is Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, ARM reads as Fairly valued as of 10 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $232.41 a share against a last close of $255.39, a gap of -9.0%.
What is ARM's fair value?
$232.41 a share as of 10 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $161.85 to $331.48.
What price range does the model give ARM?
$208.30 to $341.92 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,266 past valuations, refreshed 10 Oct 2026.
When does Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has ARM moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 4.7%, ignoring direction. The largest was -13.5% around the report of 30 Jul 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for ARM is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on ARM
The model holds no idea open on ARM today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on ARM with their outcomes. A free account is enough.