NYSE: ARR ยท Mortgage REITs
ARMOUR Residential REIT (ARR) fair value and price range
As of 2 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values ARMOUR Residential REIT (ARR) at $22.19 a share. The stock last closed at $13.59, which puts the model's fair value 63.3% above the price. The fair value sits more than 60% away from the price. Faircurve gives no verdict on a gap wider than 60%.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc.
What price range does the model give ARR?
The calibrated range for ARR over 63 trading days is $18.62 to $27.06. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is below this range. For names with fair value 30%+ above price, the calibrated range has held the price 29% of the time over 63 trading days, and 71% ended below it; the typical move was +5.7%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $17.22 to $28.06. In 95% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does ARR compare with similar companies?
The companies in mortgage reits closest to ARMOUR Residential REIT in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EFC Ellington Financial Inc. | $11.59 | $13.03 | +12.4% | Fairly valued |
| BXMT Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. | $10.90 | $7.62 | -30.1% | Overvalued |
| ARI Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. | $6.20 | $4.21 | -32.1% | Overvalued |
| ABR Arbor Realty Trust | $3.56 | $5.15 | +44.7% | Low evidence grade |
| ADAM Adamas Trust, Inc. | $7.81 | $9.75 | +24.8% | Undervalued |
| PMT PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust | $7.80 | $8.99 | +15.3% | Undervalued |
| FBRT Franklin BSP Realty Trust, Inc. | $6.27 | $6.09 | -2.9% | Fairly valued |
| STWD Starwood Property Trust, Inc. | $13.05 | $8.89 | -31.9% | Low evidence grade |
When does ARR report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
ARMOUR Residential REIT's next earnings report is scheduled for 28 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How ARR moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 0.7%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 22 Jul 2026 | -1.8% |
| 22 Apr 2026 | +0.3% |
| 18 Feb 2026 | -0.7% |
| 22 Oct 2025 | +1.6% |
| 23 Jul 2025 | +0.1% |
| 23 Apr 2025 | +9.4% |
| 12 Feb 2025 | +0.8% |
| 23 Oct 2024 | -0.4% |
ARMOUR Residential REIT at a glance
ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. (ARR), founded in 2008 and based in Vero Beach, Florida, primarily allocates its capital to residential mortgage-backed securities (MBS) within the United States.
- Market value
- $1.6B
- Sector
- Real Estate
- Industry
- Mortgage REITs
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -64.0%
- Analysts with estimates
- 4
- Beta to the US market
- 0.46
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices ARMOUR Residential REIT on the share price against the net assets on the balance sheet, adjusted for the earnings analysts expect (price to book value), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for ARR was $22.65. As of 2 Oct 2026 it is $22.19, a change of -2.0%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about ARMOUR Residential REIT's valuation
Is ARMOUR Residential REIT stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts ARR's fair value at $22.19 a share against a last close of $13.59, as of 2 Oct 2026. The fair value sits more than 60% away from the price. Faircurve gives no verdict on a gap wider than 60%.
What is ARR's fair value?
$22.19 a share as of 2 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $17.22 to $28.06.
What price range does the model give ARR?
$18.62 to $27.06 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does ARMOUR Residential REIT report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 28 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has ARR moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 0.7%, ignoring direction. The largest was +9.4% around the report of 23 Apr 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for ARR is low. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.