NYSE: AVA · Diversified Utilities
Avista (AVA) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 2 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Avista (AVA) at $44.90 a share. The stock last closed at $35.31, which puts the model's fair value 27.2% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Avista Corporation.
Faircurve Insights · 2 Oct 2026
Avista Corporation operates as an energy utility, conducting business through its various subsidiaries. Its operations are divided into two primary segments: Avista Utilities and AEL&P.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $44.90 a share on 2 Oct 2026, which is the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 26 Sep 2026 gave $45.25, so the fair value moved -0.8%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $37.67 to $54.75, built from the fair value since there is no live options data for the stock. This range held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, and the evidence grade for this valuation is Medium.
The overall quality score for Avista Corporation is 59 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares it with Unitil Corporation, Sempra, California Water Service Group, Chesapeake Utilities Corporation, American States Water Company, MGE Energy, Inc., and H2O America. Around its last 8 earnings reports, the stock moved by a median size of 3.1%, ignoring direction.
Written from the figures on this page for the 2 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give AVA?
The calibrated range for AVA over 63 trading days is $37.67 to $54.75. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is below this range. For names with fair value 15 to 30% above price, the calibrated range has held the price 50% of the time over 63 trading days, and 47% ended below it; the typical move was +4.1%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $31.98 to $59.06. In 73% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does AVA score on business quality?
Avista's overall quality score is 59 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 75 | 5.7%ROIC | 5.3% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 68 | -0.46xFCF / net income | -0.55x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 30 | 1.3%Revenue growth, trailing | 9.2% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 57 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 0.0% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 39 | 4.95xNet debt / EBITDA | 4.52x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 70 | 2.0 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.3 pts |
How does AVA compare with similar companies?
The companies in diversified utilities closest to Avista in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTL Unitil Corporation | $51.20 | $62.53 | +22.1% | Undervalued |
| AES The AES Corporation | $14.91 | $17.46 | +17.1% | Low evidence grade |
| SRE Sempra | $78.38 | $75.55 | -3.6% | Fairly valued |
| CWT California Water Service Group | $45.96 | $45.92 | -0.1% | Fairly valued |
| CPK Chesapeake Utilities Corporation | $127.38 | $126.92 | -0.4% | Fairly valued |
| AWR American States Water Company | $82.82 | $83.77 | +1.1% | Fairly valued |
| MGEE MGE Energy, Inc. | $70.77 | $73.63 | +4.0% | Fairly valued |
| HTO H2O America | $60.13 | $54.98 | -8.6% | Fairly valued |
When does AVA report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Avista's next earnings report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How AVA moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 3.1%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 3 Aug 2026 | -3.1% |
| 5 May 2026 | 0.0% |
| 25 Feb 2026 | -6.8% |
| 5 Nov 2025 | +4.5% |
| 6 Aug 2025 | -2.1% |
| 7 May 2025 | -5.6% |
| 26 Feb 2025 | +3.2% |
| 6 Nov 2024 | -1.8% |
Avista at a glance
Avista Corporation operates as an energy utility, conducting business through its various subsidiaries. Its operations are divided into two primary segments: Avista Utilities and AEL&P.
- Market value
- $2.9B
- Sector
- Utilities
- Industry
- Diversified Utilities
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $2.0B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +1.2%
- Analysts with estimates
- 3
- Beta to the US market
- -0.27
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Avista on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for AVA was $45.25. As of 2 Oct 2026 it is $44.90, a change of -0.8%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Avista's valuation
Is Avista stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, AVA reads as Undervalued as of 2 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $44.90 a share against a last close of $35.31, a gap of +27.2%.
What is AVA's fair value?
$44.90 a share as of 2 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $31.98 to $59.06.
What price range does the model give AVA?
$37.67 to $54.75 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Avista report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has AVA moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 3.1%, ignoring direction. The largest was -6.8% around the report of 25 Feb 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for AVA is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.