NASDAQ: BJRI · Restaurants
BJ's Restaurants (BJRI) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 2 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values BJ's Restaurants (BJRI) at $73.14 a share. The stock last closed at $61.93, which puts the model's fair value 18.1% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. BJ's Restaurants, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 2 Oct 2026
BJ's Restaurants, Inc. manages a network of casual dining establishments situated throughout the United States.
On 2 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model gave a fair value of $73.14 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This was a move of +1.6% from the previous run on 26 Sep 2026, which gave $71.98. The calibrated range over 63 trading days was $61.36 to $89.18, built from the fair value. This type of range held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, calibrated weekly against realised prices from 4,327 past valuations. The evidence grade for this valuation was Medium.
The company's overall quality score was 63 out of 100 against comparable companies. Its stability score was 100, with EBITDA margin downside volatility over 5 years at 0.8 pts, compared to a peer median of 1.9 pts. The model compares it with The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated, CAVA Group, Inc., and Dutch Bros Inc. Around its last 8 earnings reports, the median size of moves, ignoring direction, was 7.7%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 2 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give BJRI?
The calibrated range for BJRI over 63 trading days is $61.36 to $89.18. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $49.13 to $104.15. In 66% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does BJRI score on business quality?
BJ's Restaurants's overall quality score is 63 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 55 | 5.3%ROIC | 5.0% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 53 | 1.09xFCF / net income | 1.58x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 62 | 3.1%Revenue growth, trailing | 0.3% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 69 | 3.7%Net buybacks / market value | 0.0% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 70 | 3.32xNet debt / EBITDA | 3.60x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 100 | 0.8 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.9 pts |
How does BJRI compare with similar companies?
The companies in restaurants closest to BJ's Restaurants in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WEN The Wendy's Company | $6.12 | $8.54 | +39.5% | Low evidence grade |
| CBRL Cracker Barrel Old Country Store | $55.76 | $45.56 | -18.3% | Low evidence grade |
| SHAK Shake Shack Inc. | $60.98 | $69.03 | +13.2% | Data under review |
| PZZA Papa John's International, Inc. | $19.43 | $23.18 | +19.3% | Low evidence grade |
| WING Wingstop Inc. | $106.89 | $108.38 | +1.4% | Low evidence grade |
| CAKE The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated | $109.65 | $100.18 | -8.6% | Fairly valued |
| CAVA CAVA Group, Inc. | $54.41 | $41.16 | -24.4% | Overvalued |
| BROS Dutch Bros Inc. | $38.67 | $36.09 | -6.7% | Fairly valued |
When does BJRI report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
BJ's Restaurants's next earnings report is scheduled for 29 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 8.5% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How BJRI moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 7.7%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 30 Jul 2026 | -3.6% |
| 5 May 2026 | +8.4% |
| 25 Feb 2026 | -0.9% |
| 30 Oct 2025 | +12.9% |
| 31 Jul 2025 | -6.9% |
| 1 May 2025 | +41.3% |
| 20 Feb 2025 | +6.1% |
| 31 Oct 2024 | -9.2% |
BJ's Restaurants at a glance
BJ's Restaurants, Inc. manages a network of casual dining establishments situated throughout the United States.
- Market value
- $1.3B
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Restaurants
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $1.5B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +4.2%
- Analysts with estimates
- 6
- Beta to the US market
- 0.75
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices BJ's Restaurants on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for BJRI was $71.98. As of 2 Oct 2026 it is $73.14, a change of +1.6%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about BJ's Restaurants's valuation
Is BJ's Restaurants stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, BJRI reads as Undervalued as of 2 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $73.14 a share against a last close of $61.93, a gap of +18.1%.
What is BJRI's fair value?
$73.14 a share as of 2 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $49.13 to $104.15.
What price range does the model give BJRI?
$61.36 to $89.18 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does BJ's Restaurants report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 29 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has BJRI moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 7.7%, ignoring direction. The largest was +41.3% around the report of 1 May 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for BJRI is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.