NYSE: BLDR · Construction Materials
Builders FirstSource (BLDR) fair value and price range
As of 1 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Builders FirstSource (BLDR) at $57.64 a share. The stock last closed at $56.25, which puts the model's fair value 2.5% above the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Builders FirstSource, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 1 Oct 2026
Builders FirstSource, Inc. engages in the supply and manufacture of building materials, manufactured components, and construction services to professional homebuilders, sub-contractors, remodelers, and consumers.
Faircurve's model valued Builders FirstSource, Inc. at $57.64 a share on 1 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 26 Sep 2026 gave $59.98, so the fair value moved -3.9%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $48.36 to $70.28, built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown.
The overall quality score for Builders FirstSource, Inc. is 35 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares it with Armstrong World Industries, Inc., Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc., Eagle Materials Inc., Trex Company, Inc., Griffon Corporation, and Owens Corning. The stock's moves around its last 8 earnings reports ranged from -9.2% to +3.2%, with a median size of 2.9% ignoring direction.
Written from the figures on this page for the 1 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give BLDR?
The calibrated range for BLDR over 63 trading days is $48.36 to $70.28. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $29.96 to $93.47. In 50% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does BLDR score on business quality?
Builders FirstSource's overall quality score is 35 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 0 | 3.3%ROIC | 15.3% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 85 | 6.23xFCF / net income | 1.07x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 18 | -7.4%Revenue growth, trailing | -1.4% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 100 | 11.7%Net buybacks / market value | 4.3% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 26 | 5.01xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.73x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 13 | 2.4 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.7 pts |
How does BLDR compare with similar companies?
The companies in construction materials closest to Builders FirstSource in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWI Armstrong World Industries, Inc. | $163.12 | $169.45 | +3.9% | Fairly valued |
| ACA Arcosa, Inc. | $146.50 | $146.91 | +0.3% | Low evidence grade |
| SSD Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc. | $173.56 | $177.52 | +2.3% | Fairly valued |
| EXP Eagle Materials Inc. | $171.36 | $180.68 | +5.4% | Fairly valued |
| SPXC SPX Technologies, Inc. | $173.09 | $173.62 | +0.3% | Low evidence grade |
| TREX Trex Company, Inc. | $43.56 | $43.15 | -0.9% | Fairly valued |
| GFF Griffon Corporation | $93.97 | $101.20 | +7.7% | Fairly valued |
| OC Owens Corning | $118.36 | $132.22 | +11.7% | Fairly valued |
All construction materials stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does BLDR report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Builders FirstSource's next earnings report is scheduled for 29 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 17.5% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 48 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How BLDR moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 2.9%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 30 Jul 2026 | -1.9% |
| 30 Apr 2026 | -9.2% |
| 17 Feb 2026 | -0.7% |
| 30 Oct 2025 | +0.8% |
| 31 Jul 2025 | +3.2% |
| 1 May 2025 | -4.6% |
| 20 Feb 2025 | -5.1% |
| 5 Nov 2024 | +2.5% |
Builders FirstSource at a glance
Builders FirstSource, Inc. engages in the supply and manufacture of building materials, manufactured components, and construction services to professional homebuilders, sub-contractors, remodelers, and consumers.
- Market value
- $6.4B
- Sector
- Basic Materials
- Industry
- Construction Materials
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $14.8B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -5.6%
- Analysts with estimates
- 10
- Beta to the US market
- 1.30
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Builders FirstSource on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for BLDR was $59.98. As of 1 Oct 2026 it is $57.64, a change of -3.9%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Builders FirstSource's valuation
Is Builders FirstSource stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts BLDR's fair value at $57.64 a share against a last close of $56.25, as of 1 Oct 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is BLDR's fair value?
$57.64 a share as of 1 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $29.96 to $93.47.
What price range does the model give BLDR?
$48.36 to $70.28 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Builders FirstSource report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 29 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has BLDR moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 2.9%, ignoring direction. The largest was -9.2% around the report of 30 Apr 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for BLDR is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.